Social distancing measures will last for at least half a year

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Ferrograd
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51977802

Periods will alternate between less strict measures, with just the vulnerable isolated, and stricter periods with everyone isolated.

Seems very draconian, though necessary, but I doubt how this will be done without serious damage to the economy, education, mental health, and avoiding public disorder.

The only reason why this is being done is not to "overwhelm" the NHS. Whilst other healthsystems in the world have been, overwhelmed, perhaps if the Tories had funded the NHs better and been prepaed for pandemics like a return of SARS, we could deal with this better. It also raises the question of whether it is iactually worth treating coronavirus patients, especially old ones. Surely we should now strart triage?
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barnetlad
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This does not surprise me when you look at what has happened in China where there have been more draconian measures than we will ever have. The government should introduce some more measures such as pubs, clubs and restaurants being shut or being takeaways only.

There are some ministers who seem to be grasping the nettle, but not Mr Johnson, and his comments yesterday were very unhelpful.
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imlikeahermit
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(Original post by barnetlad)
This does not surprise me when you look at what has happened in China where there have been more draconian measures than we will ever have. The government should introduce some more measures such as pubs, clubs and restaurants being shut or being takeaways only.

There are some ministers who seem to be grasping the nettle, but not Mr Johnson, and his comments yesterday were very unhelpful.
It is utterly ridiculous that he has not put his foot down and shut down institutions by law. We are an utter embarrassment. No spine, sheer arrogance, and then to top it all off, a horrendously obnoxious generation who believe that this isn't an issue, due to insane comments by the Wetherspoons CEO. Absolute farce from start to finish.
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barnetlad
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(Original post by imlikeahermit)
It is utterly ridiculous that he has not put his foot down and shut down institutions by law. We are an utter embarrassment. No spine, sheer arrogance, and then to top it all off, a horrendously obnoxious generation who believe that this isn't an issue, due to insane comments by the Wetherspoons CEO. Absolute farce from start to finish.
We are not an embarrassment abroad, we are a laughing stock. It may be a while before I go abroad again, but when I do I avoid acknowledging that I am English as much as possible.
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imlikeahermit
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(Original post by barnetlad)
We are not an embarrassment abroad, we are a laughing stock. It may be a while before I go abroad again, but when I do I avoid acknowledging that I am English as much as possible.
Absolutely. And just as we see another 40 dead today. All because when it became time to turn the screw, Boris bottled it, and because of the sheer stupidity and arrogance of the people of this country.
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ByEeek
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(Original post by barnetlad)
We are not an embarrassment abroad, we are a laughing stock. It may be a while before I go abroad again, but when I do I avoid acknowledging that I am English as much as possible.
Why do you say this. We are about 2 weeks behind the likes of Italy. 2 weeks ago they were shutting their schools. Next week we will be in full lockdown just as they are now. I find it sad that anyone would judge a country based on this tragedy. Have more faith in humanity.
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Ferrograd
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(Original post by ByEeek)
Why do you say this. We are about 2 weeks behind the likes of Italy. 2 weeks ago they were shutting their schools. Next week we will be in full lockdown just as they are now. I find it sad that anyone would judge a country based on this tragedy. Have more faith in humanity.
Also Italy has got a very large, ageing population which undoubtedly inflates numbers. Plus its mostly confined to the north. in the UK, its more spread out, though London does appear to be further ahea than the UK.
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Burton Bridge
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(Original post by ByEeek)
Why do you say this. We are about 2 weeks behind the likes of Italy. 2 weeks ago they were shutting their schools. Next week we will be in full lockdown just as they are now. I find it sad that anyone would judge a country based on this tragedy. Have more faith in humanity.
Prisom
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barnetlad
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(Original post by ByEeek)
Why do you say this. We are about 2 weeks behind the likes of Italy. 2 weeks ago they were shutting their schools. Next week we will be in full lockdown just as they are now. I find it sad that anyone would judge a country based on this tragedy. Have more faith in humanity.
Personal experience of being in Europe, most recently five weeks ago.
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nexttime
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(Original post by Ferrograd)
Surely we should now strart triage?
The NHS always triages - if you have a poor chance of recovery you don't go to ITU. It would be cruel.

In Italy we're hearing about rules like no one over 60 or with any underlying conditions gets a ventilator. That is the kind of situation we are trying very hard to avoid.

(Original post by Ferrograd)
Also Italy has got a very large, ageing population ...
Just like you UK you mean?
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BlueIndigoViolet
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Would much rather social distancing and lockdown compared to spiralling cases and deaths and the alternative
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ByEeek
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(Original post by barnetlad)
Personal experience of being in Europe, most recently five weeks ago.
Yep. And a lot has happened in that time. It is funny how banter and bravado go out of the window when serious number of people are dying. Italy is suffereing the equivalent of two major plane crashes a day. We are about 2 weeks behind Italy.
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Ferrograd
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BBC News - Coronavirus: Have UK experts over-egged deaths?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

So actually there could be an overlap. Obviously some people are dying who shouldn't be, but if they do do more research into this and find that the vast majority of these people would have died anyway, I don't see any reason for such measures to continue
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nexttime
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(Original post by Ferrograd)
BBC News - Coronavirus: Have UK experts over-egged deaths?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

So actually there could be an overlap. Obviously some people are dying who shouldn't be, but if they do do more research into this and find that the vast majority of these people would have died anyway, I don't see any reason for such measures to continue
Are you referring to deaths so far? Because that would not be right - it would be quite the coincidence if someone who died in the two weeks just gone specifically with coronavirus, was not due to coronavirus. Think about the chances - we have probably in the region of 20-25,000 true cases atm, so a 1 in ~2500 chance of having it. Number of deaths expected in the UK in a normal 2 week period = 25,000 also, so 1 in 2500 again. Chances of someone being in both groups coincidentally would in theory be 1 in 6 million...

Those numbers aren't quite right, as covid disproportionately affects the elderly, who have a higher than average chance of dying of something else (so probably a chance closer to 1 in 250 rather than 2500), but hopefully you get the idea that this does not apply to small numbers over short time periods.

However if case numbers started to become very large, then you'd have a sufficiently large population to be able to say 'well tens of thousands of these guys would have died this year anyway'. The figure of 510,000 deaths certainly runs into this problem (although you will definitely need to also add numbers for people who died from other causes, who would have been saved if all NHS beds weren't taken up by coronavirus).

Its also clearly just ridiculous to suggest that the war-zones we're seeing in Italian hospitals, and are just starting to see starting in London, is in any way normal!
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Napp
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(Original post by ByEeek)
. Italy is suffereing the equivalent of two major plane crashes a day.
A rather factious comparison..
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imlikeahermit
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(Original post by ByEeek)
Why do you say this. We are about 2 weeks behind the likes of Italy. 2 weeks ago they were shutting their schools. Next week we will be in full lockdown just as they are now. I find it sad that anyone would judge a country based on this tragedy. Have more faith in humanity.
The point is, that he has missed the boat. We are doomed to end up like Italy. We should have been far more proactive than reactive as we are being now. Look at countries like South Korea and Singapore, who have by all accounts come out of this virtually unscathed. Why? Because they have a shrewd government and citizens willing to obey collectively. We have neither. We have an arrogant bafoon as a prime minister and a generation of people who think this doesn’t apply to them. We are a laughing stock.
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nexttime
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(Original post by imlikeahermit)
Look at countries like South Korea and Singapore, who have by all accounts come out of this virtually unscathed.
Both are far from out of this. Relax for a second and they get an outbreak the same size as if they had done nothing originally.
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Smack
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(Original post by nexttime)
Both are far from out of this. Relax for a second and they get an outbreak the same size as if they had done nothing originally.
What's the long-term solution for dealing with this virus?
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imlikeahermit
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(Original post by nexttime)
Both are far from out of this. Relax for a second and they get an outbreak the same size as if they had done nothing originally.
I realise that, but they are still miles ahead of us in comparison. We have been slow to react and will most likely pay the price in the next few weeks. Looking at figures at the moment I cannot foresee anything other than Italy like totals because we have been both arrogant and naive.
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Bio 7
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(Original post by Smack)
What's the long-term solution for dealing with this virus?
Destroying the country and having mass murder. I’m already sick of everything being f*cking shut.

Humanity is so pathetic now.
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