The Student Room Group

Coronavirus deaths to be much lower than expected

New Imperial University modelling suggests if people continue to follow the government's social distancing measures, the number of deaths will be between 5,700 and 7,000. The outbreak is due to peak on the 5th April, they say.

Id also like to point out (without offending anyone) many people breaking the rules are members of the Asian community. Any particular reason for this? A BBQ in the west midlands was broken up and another one yesterday in a national park in Derbyshire. Just an observation.

Scroll to see replies

Reply 1
Avatar for Wōden
Wōden
15
Original post by Ferrograd
New Imperial University modelling suggests if people continue to follow the government's social distancing measures, the number of deaths will be between 5,700 and 7,000. The outbreak is due to peak on the 5th April, they say.



I'll believe that when I see it. I fear we may see an explosion of cases in London over the next few weeks, there has still been far too much movement and close contact of people, particularly on the underground lines. The Mayor's descision to reduce tube services was an absurdly bad idea.

Id also like to point out (without offending anyone) many people breaking the rules are members of the Asian community. Any particular reason for this? A BBQ in the west midlands was broken up and another one yesterday in a national park in Derbyshire. Just an observation.


I'm not going to draw any conclusions based on a few anecdotal observations. I would hope most people of all communities are taking the neccessary precautions, and recognise that anyone of any ethnicity can be infected.
Original post by Ferrograd

Id also like to point out (without offending anyone) many people breaking the rules are members of the Asian community. Any particular reason for this? A BBQ in the west midlands was broken up and another one yesterday in a national park in Derbyshire. Just an observation.

I don’t have enough experience to comment on that, other than to say a similar thing is happening around me.
But, my mums neighbours are white, in their late seventies and are continuing their activities as normal. They are going out two and three times a day. Walking, in the car , to the shops.
Too many people are thinking it won’t happen to them
Original post by Wōden
I'll believe that when I see it. I fear we may see an explosion of cases in London over the next few weeks, there has still been far too much movement and close contact of people, particularly on the underground lines. The Mayor's descision to reduce tube services was an absurdly bad idea.



I'm not going to draw any conclusions based on a few anecdotal observations. I would hope most people of all communities are taking the neccessary precautions, and recognise that anyone of any ethnicity can be infected.

The WM as a third of cases in the UK. Can't remember if it was The Guardian or the BBC saying that this could be down to the large Muslim and Sikh population who continue to pray in large numbers. Also, there are suggestions that some ethnicities are worse affected than others. Could explain why Italy and Spain are so badly affected compared to say, Germany and other Nordic/Germanic countries
Reply 4
Avatar for ANM775
ANM775
20
Original post by Ferrograd
New Imperial University modelling suggests if people continue to follow the government's social distancing measures, the number of deaths will be between 5,700 and 7,000. The outbreak is due to peak on the 5th April, they say.

Id also like to point out (without offending anyone) many people breaking the rules are members of the Asian community. Any particular reason for this? A BBQ in the west midlands was broken up and another one yesterday in a national park in Derbyshire. Just an observation.


Still though, I think Boris is to blame for a lot of this. China started lockdown at 30 deaths and UK started on around 600 deaths. Now china is reaping the benefits right now whereas UK is projected from 7000 to 20000 deaths

also i read an article which said britain was still allowing flights from the worst hit countries like Italy .... whereas China has locked down it's flights much better, and are now locking down further to prevent a second wave.

from the start of this i was thinking why the **** doesn't the UK just lockdown flights from china etc
Original post by ANM775
Still though, I think Boris is to blame for a lot of this. China started lockdown at 30 deaths and UK started on around 600 deaths. Now china is reaping the benefits right now whereas UK is projected from 7000 to 20000 deaths

also i read an article which said britain was still allowing flights from the worst hit countries like Italy .... whereas China has locked down it's flights much better, and are now locking down further to prevent a second wave.

from the start of this i was thinking why the **** doesn't the UK just lockdown flights from china etc

Although we may have been able to do more earlier, it’s not fair to compare thr U.K to China.

China is much more authoritarian and their government has the power to easily do all that and quarantine a city, we don’t. Plus the numbers coming out of China are not always fully believed.
I hope it is even lower than the lower figure, as it were, as each death is a family bereaved, a life lost, and probably without a normal funeral or even the opportunity to have a last conversation with the deceased. To give an example of the lack of attended funerals, someone my mum has known for 50 years died two weeks ago (not of the virus) and only her brothers and son went to the funeral.
Original post by barnetlad
I hope it is even lower than the lower figure, as it were, as each death is a family bereaved, a life lost, and probably without a normal funeral or even the opportunity to have a last conversation with the deceased. To give an example of the lack of attended funerals, someone my mum has known for 50 years died two weeks ago (not of the virus) and only her brothers and son went to the funeral.

I have lost a friend this week, expecting to lose another any time and my mother in law does not have long.
The limit at our crematorium is 10 including the minister. I cannot say goodbye to my friend. Or the one I’m going to lose. And for my mother in law some people will be very unhappy. We are quite a large family.
The limit on a burial is 5
I think at this moment in time that is mere speculation.
If we are following Italy, then the next couple of weeks will be critical.
I still think there will be quiet a spike in Deaths unfortunately.
Original post by Sammylou40
I have lost a friend this week, expecting to lose another any time and my mother in law does not have long.
The limit at our crematorium is 10 including the minister. I cannot say goodbye to my friend. Or the one I’m going to lose. And for my mother in law some people will be very unhappy. We are quite a large family.
The limit on a burial is 5

This is the sort of stuff keeping me up at night. My mum's in a care home and they've been on lockdown the last 2 weeks, but I need to factor on it getting in there eventually, and she's pretty much as high risk as they get, impaired to the level where phonecalls/online contact aren't practical. So if she were to get infected there's every chance I just wouldn't see her again :frown:
Original post by ANM775
just lockdown flights from china etc

locking down flights does not typically work. Normal people respond by booking alternative flights to get around the ban. Italy was the first to ban flights from China but it did not assist their viral spread.

This phenomenon is seen when a lockdown is announced - again in Northern Italy, people fled southwards to "beat" the Northern lockdown, which seems to have spread the virus further. Slow gradual changes seem best to avoid chaos and reactionary behaviour.

The super-rich enjoy even more freedom as they just charter their own flights and seem to be ignoring most travel bans
Original post by ANM775
Still though, I think Boris is to blame for a lot of this. China started lockdown at 30 deaths and UK started on around 600 deaths. Now china is reaping the benefits right now whereas UK is projected from 7000 to 20000 deaths

also i read an article which said britain was still allowing flights from the worst hit countries like Italy .... whereas China has locked down it's flights much better, and are now locking down further to prevent a second wave.

from the start of this i was thinking why the **** doesn't the UK just lockdown flights from china etc

No China did not😂 they just didn’t tell anyone about deaths. You’re crazy if you believe a single statistic that comes from that country. They have known about it since mid December but didn’t say anything until mid January in fears it would make the country look bad
My grandad died this week. Not of COVID-19, but of dementia and leukemia. Only close fmaily allowed at the crematorium.
Original post by StriderHort
This is the sort of stuff keeping me up at night. My mum's in a care home and they've been on lockdown the last 2 weeks, but I need to factor on it getting in there eventually, and she's pretty much as high risk as they get, impaired to the level where phonecalls/online contact aren't practical. So if she were to get infected there's every chance I just wouldn't see her again :frown:


We had to consider a specialist home or hospice for my husbands mother but there is no visiting and he couldn’t stomach sending her off alone and not seeing her again. Two of us are providing 24 hour care instead. Quite worrying as we are now worn out, run down and I’m high risk
Reply 14
Avatar for Napp
Napp
22
Original post by ANM775


from the start of this i was thinking why the **** doesn't the UK just lockdown flights from china etc


It wouldnt have made much of a difference bar delaying the inevitable. People skirt bans in plenty of amusing ways and once the virus is embedded in a population good luck stopping its spread - as the Americans and Europeans are finding out.
Original post by ANM775
from the start of this i was thinking why the **** doesn't the UK just lockdown flights from china etc

It's not that easy. Lockdown flights from China? A ban like that has to be all or nothing. To have banned flights from China and actually have them work we'd have to shut the borders completely.

Ban flights from China? Fly to... Oh Idk Singapore and get a connecting flight to the UK.
Ban all flights? Fly to France/Ireland/Any other crossing from Europe to the UK and come in by Ferry or train (In the case of Ireland, come in via the land border and take a ferry to the mainland)
Original post by Ferrograd
New Imperial University modelling suggests if people continue to follow the government's social distancing measures, the number of deaths will be between 5,700 and 7,000. The outbreak is due to peak on the 5th April, they say.

Id also like to point out (without offending anyone) many people breaking the rules are members of the Asian community. Any particular reason for this? A BBQ in the west midlands was broken up and another one yesterday in a national park in Derbyshire. Just an observation.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Reply 17
Avatar for Napp
Napp
22
Original post by TheMcSame
It's not that easy. Lockdown flights from China? A ban like that has to be all or nothing. To have banned flights from China and actually have them work we'd have to shut the borders completely.

Ban flights from China? Fly to... Oh Idk Singapore and get a connecting flight to the UK.
Ban all flights? Fly to France/Ireland/Any other crossing from Europe to the UK and come in by Ferry or train (In the case of Ireland, come in via the land border and take a ferry to the mainland)

People also seem to forget that a fair whack of the essentials of life come in via planes as well, commercial ones at that.
Expert's are talking back predictions........

While the PM, Health Secretary, Lead Doctor Whitty....

All in self isolation with positive tests.

UK death toll is at about 5% as of right now. Surely they are heading for a Spain or Italy Trajectory, not a Germany.... Or Maybe closer to France.

The UK has also proven to be quite the exporter of cases, topping the list of returning imported cases in Singapore and Malaysia lol.

Key emphasis, they've been wrong alot, let's see what happens.

If anything the UKs relatively young population saves them not their expertise.
(edited 4 years ago)
Original post by Realitysreflexx
Expert's are talking back predictions........

While the PM, Health Secretary, Lead Doctor Whitty....

All in self isolation with positive tests.

UK death toll is at about 5% as of right now. Surely they are heading for a Spain or Italy Trajectory, not a Germany.... Or Maybe closer to France.

The UK has also proven to be quite the exporter of cases, topping the list of returning imported cases in Singapore and Malaysia lol.

Key emphasis, they've been wrong alot, let's see what happens.

If anything the UKs relatively young population saves them not their expertise.

Definitely think UKs relatively young population is what could save the UK, especially if you compare to Italy for example, which has a much older population than the UK. Maybe there's hope that it won't get as bad in the UK as in Italy?

Quick Reply

Related discussions

Latest

Trending

Trending

Articles for you