Will Trump get re-elected?
I think he will honestly, mind you I think Joe Biden ain’t much better than Trump.
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Original post by DeesideEwan
I think he will honestly, mind you I think Joe Biden ain’t much better than Trump.
IMO yes.
Biden politically is very similar to Hilary, does not come with FBI baggage, but has something far worse even US left wing media outlets laugh at his gaffs and their are very real questions as to if he's mentally competent 24/7. (ive no idea if he is or not, ive just seen the press on it).
Down an election stretch Vs Trump he'll make more gaffs and he'll have to do live debates, I think he'll be put under the microscope and Trumps team will pound the message day after day that he's going senile and is not competent to be president for 4 years. And I think given the election is 100+ days of campaigning his image will be broken.
I think its another case of the Democrats picking bad candidates Sanders would never win imo as hes seen as far too socialist by middle America and Biden has baggage. I think there were decent candidates with far better prospects vs trump but with the way the primary system works in the States name recognition matters early.
Above is without reflecting on coronavirus; now its much harder to say, I think once its over & done with they'll be a period of reflection about how it was handled given the circumstances, who spins the handling of the virus the best could well be a major factor in the election just a few months after the virus (assuming the election isnt postponed, and the US gets past the virus).
I think Trump will suffer some electoral damage from the virus, backlash will happen but I doubt Biden will capitalise on it enough to win in November (if the poll happens then). It all depends on voter turnout, if Biden can mobilise black-African American voters like Obama did then the race will be tight. Trump can relay heavy on white-Middle Class to vote for him.
I predict a Trump win, however it might be closer than expected in swing states. Probably about a 265 collage vote win for Trump. I predict however Biden will take Ohio and possibly win Florida (it was tossup in 2016).
I predict a Trump win, however it might be closer than expected in swing states. Probably about a 265 collage vote win for Trump. I predict however Biden will take Ohio and possibly win Florida (it was tossup in 2016).
against Biden lol? Yep 👍
Original post by DeesideEwan
I think he will honestly, mind you I think Joe Biden ain’t much better than Trump.
6 months ago I would have said conclusively yes, as he had (still does) incompotent opponents, and hadn't really made any spectacular mistakes or wrongdoings in spite of his bad press.
However, perhaps his biggest apparent strength was having a strong economy, which has now completely gone out of the window and will likely trundle into a deep recession. In light of this, the electorate are more likely to be swayed by the more redistributive and left leaning policies of the Democrats, so I think the election will be a tossup
The most important thing is of course the electoral college, which currently looks promising for Biden, all he nees to do is hold the states Hillary won (easy peasy) and win back the rust belt, which imo is going to be easier for him to do than it was for Clinton. Here are some reasons for that:
1. His performance in the democratic primary indicates his strength in Michigan, Penn and Wisconsin. The reason is that Bernie won against Clinton in Michigan, and yet Biden beat bernie this time around by quite a large margin. This seems to imply that Michigan may have gone to Trump because of the anti hillary wave during the primary - the state seems to highly prefer Biden over Clinton. If that's true, lets keep in mind how hated Clinton was during 2016 and the seeming respect Bernie and Biden have for each other, perhaps the split in the democratic party will not be as sevre this time around, especially because the primary season seems to be much shorter now.
2. Someone already mentioned the possible implications of coronavirus, if the economy continues to wobble, it will be a massive blow to Trump.
3. His home state - Pennsylvania, which could help his appeal in the rust belt further.
4. Biden seems to be considering Michigan's governor as his running mate, her recent fight with Trump over corona seems to be really helping her appeal in that state and assuming he picks her, its possible Biden can use that support to help win Michigan.
5. Biden isn't Clinton - russian hackers and trump had plenty to milk, from Benghazi to her e-mails to Bill clinton and so much more. There simply isnt any major scandal Biden has endured, I see hardly anything Trump can use against him other than "sleepy joe," he can't dare use the age argument that can backfire a lot too.
And finally my own personal thoughts - USA has very unfortunately had to go through a term of a drama queen reality tv style president that has made idiotic, nonsensical statements and decisions. I'm tired of the drama, he used to be entertaining in the beginning but now the joke of his presidency isnt even funny anymore - specifically looking at corona. For anyone wondering, research his prior statements about it and how slow he was to act just so he could attempt to salvage the economy to use it as a card in the election. What a pathetic president. Get rid of him Biden, please.
I'm aware Biden isn't the ideal candidate, he isn't as sharp as he once was and the years have worn him down. But his experience, compassion and decency is something I long for in American politics, to stop this partisan bickering or at least help to alleviate it. To finally stand up to China instead of plastering worthless tariffs only for the CCP to send unfinished products for final assembly in Vietnam and then to the USA to bypass them. USA's international reputation has seriously tanked, and i'm just scared for the future. I don't want to live in a social credit authoritarian dystopia like china all because the world was too focused on drama queens like Trump, and not the looming threat in the east.
1. His performance in the democratic primary indicates his strength in Michigan, Penn and Wisconsin. The reason is that Bernie won against Clinton in Michigan, and yet Biden beat bernie this time around by quite a large margin. This seems to imply that Michigan may have gone to Trump because of the anti hillary wave during the primary - the state seems to highly prefer Biden over Clinton. If that's true, lets keep in mind how hated Clinton was during 2016 and the seeming respect Bernie and Biden have for each other, perhaps the split in the democratic party will not be as sevre this time around, especially because the primary season seems to be much shorter now.
2. Someone already mentioned the possible implications of coronavirus, if the economy continues to wobble, it will be a massive blow to Trump.
3. His home state - Pennsylvania, which could help his appeal in the rust belt further.
4. Biden seems to be considering Michigan's governor as his running mate, her recent fight with Trump over corona seems to be really helping her appeal in that state and assuming he picks her, its possible Biden can use that support to help win Michigan.
5. Biden isn't Clinton - russian hackers and trump had plenty to milk, from Benghazi to her e-mails to Bill clinton and so much more. There simply isnt any major scandal Biden has endured, I see hardly anything Trump can use against him other than "sleepy joe," he can't dare use the age argument that can backfire a lot too.
And finally my own personal thoughts - USA has very unfortunately had to go through a term of a drama queen reality tv style president that has made idiotic, nonsensical statements and decisions. I'm tired of the drama, he used to be entertaining in the beginning but now the joke of his presidency isnt even funny anymore - specifically looking at corona. For anyone wondering, research his prior statements about it and how slow he was to act just so he could attempt to salvage the economy to use it as a card in the election. What a pathetic president. Get rid of him Biden, please.
I'm aware Biden isn't the ideal candidate, he isn't as sharp as he once was and the years have worn him down. But his experience, compassion and decency is something I long for in American politics, to stop this partisan bickering or at least help to alleviate it. To finally stand up to China instead of plastering worthless tariffs only for the CCP to send unfinished products for final assembly in Vietnam and then to the USA to bypass them. USA's international reputation has seriously tanked, and i'm just scared for the future. I don't want to live in a social credit authoritarian dystopia like china all because the world was too focused on drama queens like Trump, and not the looming threat in the east.
My priors remain that a Biden win is more likely than a Trump win, but neither would be particularly surprising. Still yet to see how COVID affects the race, but hard to see how it could benefit Trump, so his best hope is probably that partisanship is too strong now for it to have much effect.
Which would put the US into a pretty dangerous position. No president as unpopular as Trump in the history of modern polling has won re-election, and it's quite likely that a Trump path to victory could involve losing the popular vote again, which would likely result in increased radicalisation of means among both parties, and an inevitable flashpoint sooner or later.
Which would put the US into a pretty dangerous position. No president as unpopular as Trump in the history of modern polling has won re-election, and it's quite likely that a Trump path to victory could involve losing the popular vote again, which would likely result in increased radicalisation of means among both parties, and an inevitable flashpoint sooner or later.
Think there might be some impact from the Coronavirus, however opinion polls shows that there is a general approval for Trump's handling of the crisis, not by much but seems that his incompetence ain't harming him. If it gets much worse and there is a significant increase in unemployment, which is forecast, then there might be some Trump voters which don't vote or potentially vote Biden. But, think Trump may survive this, mainly because of his debasing of already hated media outlets, if they criticise him they can just use the fake news narrative to brush it off. Also in recent weeks he's been flouting the idea of letting people claim treatment for free through medicare expansion, putting him to the left of Biden. He won the presidency by just about getting people to believe he'd do certain things, and he certainly will be able to convince people of nominal convictions more than Joe Biden who is incapable of communicating. It comes down to the electoral college, don't think Biden will lose any states that Hilary won, but even then there's work to be done. Don't think he'll win any of the rust belt states, maybe one at a stretch. He needs Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan (or Florida), I don't feel he'll win more than 2 of those states.
Original post by mnot
IMO yes.
Biden politically is very similar to Hilary, does not come with FBI baggage, but has something far worse even US left wing media outlets laugh at his gaffs and their are very real questions as to if he's mentally competent 24/7. (ive no idea if he is or not, ive just seen the press on it).
Down an election stretch Vs Trump he'll make more gaffs and he'll have to do live debates, I think he'll be put under the microscope and Trumps team will pound the message day after day that he's going senile and is not competent to be president for 4 years. And I think given the election is 100+ days of campaigning his image will be broken.
Biden politically is very similar to Hilary, does not come with FBI baggage, but has something far worse even US left wing media outlets laugh at his gaffs and their are very real questions as to if he's mentally competent 24/7. (ive no idea if he is or not, ive just seen the press on it).
Down an election stretch Vs Trump he'll make more gaffs and he'll have to do live debates, I think he'll be put under the microscope and Trumps team will pound the message day after day that he's going senile and is not competent to be president for 4 years. And I think given the election is 100+ days of campaigning his image will be broken.
None of this has really hurt Biden thus far, and Trump has many of the same problems - indeed, it's likely in part because Trump got elected despite them that no-one really cares about them that much with Biden.
Left-wing media outlets bring them up a lot because they wanted Bernie to win.
Original post by No Face
But, think Trump may survive this, mainly because of his debasing of already hated media outlets, if they criticise him they can just use the fake news narrative to brush it off.
The point of this narrative is not so much to deflect criticism that may strike a chord with swing voters to whom that criticism matters, but rather to bolster and reinforce his position among base voters to whom it already doesn't.
Original post by anarchism101
None of this has really hurt Biden thus far, and Trump has many of the same problems - indeed, it's likely in part because Trump got elected despite them that no-one really cares about them that much with Biden.
Left-wing media outlets bring them up a lot because they wanted Bernie to win.
Left-wing media outlets bring them up a lot because they wanted Bernie to win.
Fox has made jokes about Biden's gaffs in 2020, Trump hasnt started because the presidential campaigns doesnt start really till after the republican & democrat national convention.
If you go on CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS im pretty sure they prefer Biden over Sanders...
Original post by anarchism101
The point of this narrative is not so much to deflect criticism that may strike a chord with swing voters to whom that criticism matters, but rather to bolster and reinforce his position among base voters to whom it already doesn't.
Yeah totally agree, was meaning in regards to those who voted for him in 2016. Don't think they'll be phased by it
Original post by anarchism101
My priors remain that a Biden win is more likely than a Trump win, but neither would be particularly surprising. Still yet to see how COVID affects the race, but hard to see how it could benefit Trump, so his best hope is probably that partisanship is too strong now for it to have much effect.
Which would put the US into a pretty dangerous position. No president as unpopular as Trump in the history of modern polling has won re-election, and it's quite likely that a Trump path to victory could involve losing the popular vote again, which would likely result in increased radicalisation of means among both parties, and an inevitable flashpoint sooner or later.
Which would put the US into a pretty dangerous position. No president as unpopular as Trump in the history of modern polling has won re-election, and it's quite likely that a Trump path to victory could involve losing the popular vote again, which would likely result in increased radicalisation of means among both parties, and an inevitable flashpoint sooner or later.
Nah,
The Dems will keep putting forward centrists.
I'm fullblown utilitarian now. If I was an american I would still vote Dem but I want trump to win and do some more catalystic destruction. Another 5 years reinvigorating centrism will be awful. Something needs to break the logjam that makes universal healthcare impossible in US politics.
(edited 4 years ago)
I think given the system used he will, even though Joe Biden may get more votes.
Trump will win
Original post by mnot
Fox has made jokes about Biden's gaffs in 2020, Trump hasnt started because the presidential campaigns doesnt start really till after the republican & democrat national convention.
Trump has started, he held rallies in every early primary state despite running essentially uncontested, and he and his campaign (official campaign, that is - unofficially, Fox is basically part of the Trump campaign) routinely tweet about Biden.
If you go on CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS im pretty sure they prefer Biden over Sanders...
Those aren't left-wing outlets, they're generic mainstream centrist ones.
"All men and women created by go you you know the thing" - Joe Biden
Though Sanders had little chance of winning after super Tuesday; the possibility was still there, so I thought Trump would win. Now that he's dropped out, there's no doubt in my mind that Trump will win by a landslide. Trump will destroy Biden in any debates.
The highest proportion of people who said they won't "vote blue no matter who" in surveys were Sanders supporters, if memory serves me correctly I think 85% of Sanders supporters were VBNMW compared with high 90s % of the other candidates. There is very little independent voter support for Biden and those are the people you need to win. Trump supporters aren't going to vote democrat and for some reason the corporate owned centrists on the news think that taking the republican vote is a viable strategy. Trump's approval rating from republicans is high enough, Biden is not getting any significant number of their votes.
I'm hoping there will be a split of the Democratic party, so that there is an actual left wing American party, and a move away from the two party system, but honestly that's wishful thinking.
Though Sanders had little chance of winning after super Tuesday; the possibility was still there, so I thought Trump would win. Now that he's dropped out, there's no doubt in my mind that Trump will win by a landslide. Trump will destroy Biden in any debates.
The highest proportion of people who said they won't "vote blue no matter who" in surveys were Sanders supporters, if memory serves me correctly I think 85% of Sanders supporters were VBNMW compared with high 90s % of the other candidates. There is very little independent voter support for Biden and those are the people you need to win. Trump supporters aren't going to vote democrat and for some reason the corporate owned centrists on the news think that taking the republican vote is a viable strategy. Trump's approval rating from republicans is high enough, Biden is not getting any significant number of their votes.
I'm hoping there will be a split of the Democratic party, so that there is an actual left wing American party, and a move away from the two party system, but honestly that's wishful thinking.
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