How can these figures be true?

Watch this thread
Ferrograd
Badges: 18
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#1
Report Thread starter 2 years ago
#1
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...study-predicts

66,000 dead? Worst affected country in Europe? We've hit 6,000 dead, and are nearing the peak. We have more hospital capacity than we need and our growth of cases is stalling, with the curve starting to flatten. More deaths than the USA? What???

Is there any truth in these figures because they seem grossly inflated
0
reply
Quady
Badges: 20
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#2
Report 2 years ago
#2
(Original post by Ferrograd)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...study-predicts

66,000 dead? Worst affected country in Europe? We've hit 6,000 dead, and are nearing the peak. We have more hospital capacity than we need and our growth of cases is stalling, with the curve starting to flatten. More deaths than the USA? What???

Is there any truth in these figures because they seem grossly inflated
Why ask us? Kinda evident they aren't our figures....

I mean the forecast for yesterday and today were wrong.

So why post another thread....?
1
reply
paul514
Badges: 21
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#3
Report 2 years ago
#3
(Original post by Ferrograd)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...study-predicts

66,000 dead? Worst affected country in Europe? We've hit 6,000 dead, and are nearing the peak. We have more hospital capacity than we need and our growth of cases is stalling, with the curve starting to flatten. More deaths than the USA? What???

Is there any truth in these figures because they seem grossly inflated
What a load of *******s
0
reply
Napp
Badges: 22
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#4
Report 2 years ago
#4
Is it just me or are most of the threads you create on this topic (and there is a lot of choice) utter clap trap?
'more hospital capacity than we need' pah. Rubbish.
0
reply
Rakas21
Badges: 21
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#5
Report 2 years ago
#5
(Original post by Napp)
Is it just me or are most of the threads you create on this topic (and there is a lot of choice) utter clap trap?
'more hospital capacity than we need' pah. Rubbish.
He's talking about the fact that outside London hospitals have not yet been put under severe pressure.
1
reply
Ferrograd
Badges: 18
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#6
Report Thread starter 2 years ago
#6
(Original post by Rakas21)
He's talking about the fact that outside London hospitals have not yet been put under severe pressure.
No, not just that - even in London, as of last time I checked (doubt it has changed since deaths in London are no longer the highest in the country), only 3/4 of hospitals were full. I think the peak may have been reached in London
0
reply
Golubsti
Badges: 11
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#7
Report 2 years ago
#7
(Original post by Rakas21)
He's talking about the fact that outside London hospitals have not yet been put under severe pressure.
There are several hospitals in the middle of England which have been under pressure more. I believe I read something some where that middle England is one of the most under pressure regions outside of London and something like 20% of corona deaths are there.
0
reply
Ferrograd
Badges: 18
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#8
Report Thread starter 2 years ago
#8
(Original post by Golubsti)
There are several hospitals in the middle of England which have been under pressure more. I believe I read something some where that middle England is one of the most under pressure regions outside of London and something like 20% of corona deaths are there.
Yeah, as said, I think London has reached its peak and its now in the Midlands.
0
reply
Miss Maddie
Badges: 19
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#9
Report 2 years ago
#9
It's wrong

The predictions would need to see a 3 fold increase in deaths/day over the next 7 days. Not gonna happen
0
reply
999tigger
Badges: 19
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#10
Report 2 years ago
#10
Its a model based on assumptions.
It looks to be incorrect and the assumptions are flawed making it an inaccurate model.
Imperial have their own.

We will know eventually which one proves to be correct.

Would have to look and examine the model, but it seems quite primitive. We will know soon enough in the next 2-4 weeks, when social distancing starts to kick in.
0
reply
username4969948
Badges: 16
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#11
Report 2 years ago
#11
60,000 seems too high based on current data.

But we will likely see more deaths in the UK than any other country in Europe.

And we will continue to praise the government for doing a sterling job.
0
reply
paul514
Badges: 21
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#12
Report 2 years ago
#12
(Original post by Kitten in boots)
60,000 seems too high based on current data.

But we will likely see more deaths in the UK than any other country in Europe.

And we will continue to praise the government for doing a sterling job.
Well with one of the biggest populations and a more densely populated country you would expect us to have the biggest toll.
1
reply
username4969948
Badges: 16
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#13
Report 2 years ago
#13
(Original post by paul514)
Well with one of the biggest populations and a more densely populated country you would expect us to have the biggest toll.
That's false. You'd expect Germany to have the biggest toll.

Yet they've pursued a more aggressive trace and test strategy and have a superior intensive care capacity.
1
reply
Quady
Badges: 20
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#14
Report 2 years ago
#14
(Original post by Kitten in boots)
That's false. You'd expect Germany to have the biggest toll.

Yet they've pursued a more aggressive trace and test strategy and have a superior intensive care capacity.
When did Germany overtake the UK in population density?
0
reply
username4969948
Badges: 16
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#15
Report 2 years ago
#15
(Original post by Quady)
When did Germany overtake the UK in population density?
I never claimed it did.

I get that the British people are looking for an explanation that doesn't require them to ask the hard questions about the failure of the government they voted for, but using a crude statistic like national population density comes unstuck when you compare Germany with France, Spain or Italy.
0
reply
paul514
Badges: 21
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#16
Report 2 years ago
#16
(Original post by Kitten in boots)
That's false. You'd expect Germany to have the biggest toll.

Yet they've pursued a more aggressive trace and test strategy and have a superior intensive care capacity.
Germany has a bigger population but it is also a world leader in laboratory testing and has a much larger land mass.
0
reply
paul514
Badges: 21
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#17
Report 2 years ago
#17
(Original post by Kitten in boots)
I never claimed it did.

I get that the British people are looking for an explanation that doesn't require them to ask the hard questions about the failure of the government they voted for, but using a crude statistic like national population density comes unstuck when you compare Germany with France, Spain or Italy.
Ah right because people being close to each other makes no difference to the numbers of infections....
0
reply
username4969948
Badges: 16
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#18
Report 2 years ago
#18
(Original post by paul514)
Ah right because people being close to each other makes no difference to the numbers of infections....
Don't rely on such crude explanations like national population density. It is a lazy GCSE level of analysis that frankly is not helpful.

Korea, a nation with a higher population density than the UK, also pursued an aggressive trace and test policy. As did Japan.

Countries who were aggressive about tracing and testing are having better outcomes. That is not something said with hindsight, it was sodding obvious in the data trends early on. Rather than learning and trying to adapt, our government just tried to ride it out.

Sadly, the consequences will be more deaths.

(Original post by paul514)
Germany has a bigger population but it is also a world leader in laboratory testing and has a much larger land mass.
There is nothing particularly magical about testing for coronavirus. It relies on qPCR, a fairly basic technique. We were amazed that it took so long for the NHS to requisition the machines in our lab. But that occurred simply because the government dragged it feet over testing until the opportunity to nip the outbreak in the bud was gone.
3
reply
Rakas21
Badges: 21
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#19
Report 2 years ago
#19
Not sure where the highest in Europe claim will come from. Looking at the data and rate of active case growth and testing rates it seems unlikely we will pass Spain.
0
reply
username1799249
Badges: 19
Rep:
? You'll earn badges for being active around the site. Rep gems come when your posts are rated by other community members.
#20
Report 2 years ago
#20
(Original post by Kitten in boots)
60,000 seems too high based on current data.
Why do you say that? We are 10,000 down now. And even if we are at a peak there is still a tail of deaths as the number of new cases dwindles. And then we all go back to business as usual. And repeat. I note Ryanair and Easyjet are looking to resume services (and virus spreading) in June!

From what I can see, the only way out of this is either totalitarian style surveillance and tracking and / or a vaccine.
0
reply
X

Quick Reply

Attached files
Write a reply...
Reply
new posts
Back
to top
Latest

How did The Student Room help you with your university application?

Talking to current university students (18)
19.15%
Talking to peers going through the same thing (32)
34.04%
Speaking to student ambassadors from the universities (5)
5.32%
Speaking to staff members from universities (2)
2.13%
Using the personal statement builder, library or helper service (9)
9.57%
Reading articles about what steps to take (18)
19.15%
Learning about/speaking to Student Finance England (4)
4.26%
Something else (tell us in the thread) (6)
6.38%

Watched Threads

View All