Why do the WHO think that coronavirus will spread in Africa?

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Ferrograd
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It's a stupid idea and is one that is irrational. As we have seen, coronavirus predominantly affects the over 70s and older people in general. Particuarly the overweight, obese etc. Look at africa. It has some of the "youngest" countries in the world; I believe the average age on the African continent is 19. Researchers have found that the number of people with COVID-19 in India, where 65% of the population are under 70, stands at just 130,000. Obesity is rare in africa; the oppsoite is true. hardly any international travel goes to and from africa barring some of the more developed countries like SA and Tanzania, Kenya etc. So there is not the risk as in Europe. Overlal, it just seems like a baseless assumption that just because coronavirus has affected everywhere else, it will somehow affect africa. not to mention large swathes of africa are hot, wet and humid where coronavirus struggles to thrive.
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ecolier
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It doesn't just "affect" the over 70s and older people though. It infects everyone and only the mortality rate is higher in those older and have other medical conditions.

Trust me, I work as a doctor and plenty of young 20, 30 year olds are infected and "affected".

Coronavirus infects people, Africa has people, therefore Africa will be affected.

But, simply applying what happened in Italy / Spain / USA / UK to Africa is inappropriate. There are different demographics, health behaviour, living conditions etc. Some parts of Africa involved people living in very close proximity, others may live 100s of miles part, some may not even believe in modern medical intervention. It's hard to see what will happen - but it's definitely not stupid and it's always better to over-prepare than not be prepared at all.
Last edited by ecolier; 1 year ago
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Ferrograd
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(Original post by ecolier)
It doesn't just "affect" the over 70s and older people though. It infects everyone and only the mortality rate is higher in those older and have other medical conditions.

Trust me, I work as a doctor and plenty of young 20, 30 year olds are infected and "affected".

Coronavirus infects people, Africa has people, therefore Africa will be affected.
Im noit saying it doesnt just affect the over 70s, but the death and ifnection rate for the under 20s is neglible is it not? A study has revealed that a 9 year old child who was in contact with 170 people in france did not infect anyone. Children are not super-spreaders. And as said, whilst there probably will be some impact in some countries, there will not be as many deaths, and if there are deaths, they will probably be down to poor healthcare and managmentof the disease.

I'm not trying to pretend to be an expert or an epidemologist/doctor, or indeed, any master of science for that matter, but from what I've read, countries like SA have gone into lockdown, expecting loads of cases, only for their to be very few. Of course, in much of subsaharan africa its still just finishing off the summer months, but I would have expected if there was to be a large outbreak it would be now.
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ecolier
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(Original post by Ferrograd)
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Read my edited post. It's always better to be safe than sorry.

Just because a country has supposed "low number of cases" doesn't mean that's actually the case - it could just mean that they didn't do enough tests.
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Ferrograd
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(Original post by ecolier)
Read my edited post. It's always better to be safe than sorry.

Just because a country has supposed "low number of cases" doesn't mean that's actually the case - it could just mean that they didn't do enough tests.
True, as you say there are large distances between people, but then you have massive megacities like Lagos etc. In Tanzania the president is claiming Tanzaninians can't get it because "God" protects them, ironically Zimbabwe said basically the same thing, claiming that the countries that imposed sanctions upon Zimbabwe were being punished and they ended up with some cases. We will see.
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nexttime
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(Original post by Ferrograd)
It's a stupid idea and is one that is irrational. As we have seen, coronavirus predominantly affects the over 70s and older people in general. Particuarly the overweight, obese etc. Look at africa. It has some of the "youngest" countries in the world; I believe the average age on the African continent is 19. Researchers have found that the number of people with COVID-19 in India, where 65% of the population are under 70, stands at just 130,000. Obesity is rare in africa; the oppsoite is true. hardly any international travel goes to and from africa barring some of the more developed countries like SA and Tanzania, Kenya etc. So there is not the risk as in Europe. Overlal, it just seems like a baseless assumption that just because coronavirus has affected everywhere else, it will somehow affect africa. not to mention large swathes of africa are hot, wet and humid where coronavirus struggles to thrive.
There are some protective factors. There are some really bad factors too though.

Protective: Low age distribution
Relatively rural population
Less travel especially air travel

Damaging:
Poor ability to test and control
Often poor hygiene and cramped conditions in cities.
Limited hospital ability and capacity. The mortality in the west is only ~0.5% because of hospitals - without it would probably be ~5%. Without hospital capacity, the mortality rises.
They will be out-competed financially for things like PPE, ventialtors, anti-virals (if any are shown to work).
Rate of comorbidity. And no I don't mean obesity (although that is on the rise) - instead I mean malnutrition, malaria, schistosomiasis, rheumatic fever, other untreated chronic conditions like heart disease.

It will spread slower in Africa that is quite certain. I am not convinced it will hit any softer though. Maybe the opposite. But due to probable lack of testing in some areas we may well never know.
Last edited by nexttime; 1 year ago
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Napp
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You think that Africans dont have plenty of comorbidities from aids onwards?
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