There's little doubt now: the world is headed for a Depression

Watch
Napp
Badges: 22
Rep:
?
#1
Report Thread starter 11 months ago
#1
What a time to be alive.


What an exciting time to be alive, the middle of a pandemic, the beginning of a depression, the first in a century.
Yes, I said a depression, not a recession. That is indeed what we're looking at. But people don't yet want to call it that. We know what recessions are. A technical recession, two consecutive quarters of contraction. We say the world is in a recession and if global growth is under 2%. We don't have a formal definition of depression. But what we know is that it is materially greater in both depth and duration than a recession. And it's also truly global.
We're checking all the boxes. It's obviously global. Every country in the world is getting hit by this pandemic. And every country in the world is having its economy, both supply and demand side, severely disrupted as a consequence of not having a vaccine for this new disease. We can say the governments say we're going to reopen, but until we can make people immune from coronavirus, they are not going back to work the way they used to. Their desires to consume will not be what they were. The desires for what is and is not essential - entertainment and travel, tourism, you name it - not going to be what it was. We're talking not about six months, three months in, three months out, a nice V-shaped curve, rather three months in and then until we have a vaccine which has been created and which is manufactured at scale, distributed with education around it, we're not back.
I'm optimistic from all of the epidemiologists and scientists and doctors I've talked to that we are going to get a vaccine. But still talking about two to three years and massive impact on the global economy. And then we look at the scale. We have headline numbers of what unemployment looks like in the United States, as of Friday, 14.7%. There were 7 million additional people filing for unemployment after the close of that date. Plus, an additional 5 million plus not characterized as unemployed because they're temporarily furloughed, even though they don't have jobs to go to, and they may not have jobs to come back to. So, the reality in the United States is we're closer to 25%, well over 20%. And the peak of unemployment during the Great Depression was 24.9%.
For all three of these boxes, we are entering depression territory. And no, Trump running for reelection is not going to want to say that. And no, a lot of CEOs and others trying to keep people unpanicked and, share prices high, just keep things going. They're not going to say that, but the reality is that we've entered a depression.
I think it's also important to understand that just because we don't have any experience with depression in our lifetimes does not mean this is the same depression that our great-great-grandfathers and grandmothers lived through. This is going to be much less disruptive. The reason is there's so much more wealth. A global depression today that affects a world that has so much more resource and capital and resilience, its political institutions, its society, its economic institutions, its health care, it's very different than what we experienced during the Great Crash.
Middle income developing countries today are wealthier than the middle class in the United States and Europe was during the Great Depression. You can take a 10% contraction to these major economies, worse in some of the developing world, and it won't have the same level of human deprivation, the same level of of death and destruction economically that we had before. Does that mean we shouldn't care as much about it? No, it matters. The present day is what we pay most attention to. We've got big discount variables for the for the past. And on the basis of how we act, we obviously had big discount variables for the future or else we'd be treating the world very differently. We'd deal with climate change, we'd have resilience for pandemics. But it is important to understand what it is that we're entering. And we characterize it as a big recession. We're going to put it in our minds in terms of 2008-2009. It is very different from that. By 2009, we were well on track for rebound. 2020 life is still very, very different for all of us experiencing this coronavirus depression.
One reason why we've responded to it badly is because the last major pandemic we had, African swine flu, H1N1 back in 2009, many in public health thought that we overreacted. Too much money, too much political scare mongering going on that ended up costing an awful lot. That was inefficient. As a consequence, there wasn't as much focus that the next pandemic could be worse. That's one of the things that allowed the United States to not efficiently stockpile ventilators, and key PPE, and allow some that we had to not be serviced and not be adequate. It's what's allowed the World Health Organization to be more skittish about declaring a pandemic. They didn't have a protocol for it, instead simply characterizing it later on, a few weeks after it was pretty clear that's where we were, as having pandemic characteristics. Not leading to the same kind of urgency of the CDC in the United States that you would have hoped after watching the movie Contagion.
I wish people would stop beating up on the World Health Organization. I don't do that. I just this morning, I was being asked on FOX, about the World Health Organization coordinating with Xi Jinping to not talk about human to human transmission. That that phone call happened on the 21st of January. This was reported by a major German newspaper with German intelligence anonymous quotes. Actually, there was no such phone call between the director general of the W.H.O. and Xi Jinping. And not only that, but the day before that call was supposed to have happened, the W.H.O. finally had come out and said there was human to human transmission, that was January 20th. And the week before, the 14th, when they basically passed on information from the Chinese that said, there wasn't any, that's not on the W.H.O., that's on China. For covering up. For lying about it.
Now, finally, the Chinese director of their health institute is out publicly saying we made big mistakes. They're not saying that mistake was covering up for their own people and the rest of the world, for a month. But at least they're moving in that direction. Clearly, China is at fault here. The World Health Organization, if you want to blame for carrying water for China, recognize that the reason they do that is because they are not allowed to criticize donor states. Donor states won't allow it. It's not just China. The United States is the largest donor to the W.H.O. and the W.H.O. is not allowed to criticize the US, even though our test kits don't work because we refused to use the W.H.O. test kits. When we knew they didn't work, we didn't go and find some that would work, like from Germany. Now, a strong World Health Organization would have and should have criticized the Trump administration strongly for not taking care early, to get testing up to snuff. But they couldn't do it. You know why? Because they're not allowed to. Because, if they start criticizing the United States, we'll take away their money. In fact, we might take away their money, anyway.
So, the problem is that governments refuse to allow the international organizations to be strong. To be the kind of organizations that we actually need. Absent that, you don't want to get rid of them. You'd rather have a weak World Health Organization than none at all. But we do need to understand where the blame is. And the blame is where the power is. That's on the governments.
https://www.gzeromedia.com/yes-we-ar...ick-take-video
0
reply
989515
Badges: 4
Rep:
?
#2
Report 11 months ago
#2
The lockdown was a mistake

If people practiced social distancing, were forced to wear masks in stores

wash their hands

I bet that alone would hugely reduce the spread
2
reply
Napp
Badges: 22
Rep:
?
#3
Report Thread starter 11 months ago
#3
(Original post by 989515)
The lockdown was a mistake

If people practiced social distancing, were forced to wear masks in stores

wash their hands

I bet that alone would hugely reduce the spread
Debatable, afterall whilst a balancing after must be drawn with lives versus money simply letting everyone fall where they may is hardly a productive means of going forward.
0
reply
imlikeahermit
Badges: 13
Rep:
?
#4
Report 11 months ago
#4
Can’t wait till he gets Brexit done and sticks the final stake into the heart of the British Economy. Can’t wait to see the fireworks lit above Sunderland as they plummet deep back into the 70s... like you said, what a time to be alive. Getting a tear in my eye just typing it!
3
reply
A giant chicken
Badges: 16
Rep:
?
#5
Report 11 months ago
#5
I like the interesting take on the end about government's refusing to give a sufficient degree of power to international organizations such as the W.H.O. The same could be said for the League of Nations coming up to WW2 or even the UN now...

I wonder if this signals the need for governments to finally give sufficient power to such bodies as we seemingly walk into crisis after crisis unprepared because governments fail to do what's necessary?
2
reply
Fullofsurprises
Badges: 20
Rep:
?
#6
Report 11 months ago
#6
(Original post by A giant chicken)
I like the interesting take on the end about government's refusing to give a sufficient degree of power to international organizations such as the W.H.O. The same could be said for the League of Nations coming up to WW2 or even the UN now...

I wonder if this signals the need for governments to finally give sufficient power to such bodies as we seemingly walk into crisis after crisis unprepared because governments fail to do what's necessary?
Note that all of the EU states have done better at coping with the crisis than the Brexit Vote Leave factional government we currently have in isolationist Britain. Arguably, Brexit has killed between 10,000 and 30,000 of our citizens so far.
1
reply
A giant chicken
Badges: 16
Rep:
?
#7
Report 11 months ago
#7
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Note that all of the EU states have done better at coping with the crisis than the Brexit Vote Leave factional government we currently have in isolationist Britain. Arguably, Brexit has killed between 10,000 and 30,000 of our citizens so far.
Indeed, good point, we shot ourselves in the foot that's for sure
0
reply
Alexty28
Badges: 19
Rep:
?
#8
Report 11 months ago
#8
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Note that all of the EU states have done better at coping with the crisis than the Brexit Vote Leave factional government we currently have in isolationist Britain. Arguably, Brexit has killed between 10,000 and 30,000 of our citizens so far.
I mean statistically that isn't true. Belgium? Spain? Also Brexit or no Brexit we would've been ****ed from lack government preparation for national emergencies that has been in decline since the Blair and Browns governments saw it as unnecessary.
0
reply
Napp
Badges: 22
Rep:
?
#9
Report Thread starter 10 months ago
#9
(Original post by A giant chicken)
I like the interesting take on the end about government's refusing to give a sufficient degree of power to international organizations such as the W.H.O. The same could be said for the League of Nations coming up to WW2 or even the UN now...

I wonder if this signals the need for governments to finally give sufficient power to such bodies as we seemingly walk into crisis after crisis unprepared because governments fail to do what's necessary?
Politically difficult...
1
reply
Napp
Badges: 22
Rep:
?
#10
Report Thread starter 10 months ago
#10
(Original post by Alexty28)
I mean statistically that isn't true. Belgium? Spain? Also Brexit or no Brexit we would've been ****ed from lack government preparation for national emergencies that has been in decline since the Blair and Browns governments saw it as unnecessary.
If memory serves Belgiums high ranking is more due to their being overly liberal at recording cases as opposed to much else isnt it?

In fairness to the government, not to understate the scale of their **** up however, they were relatively prepared to a national emergency albeit the wrong one, this being decidedly different from the flu the planners had envisioned :lol:
0
reply
A giant chicken
Badges: 16
Rep:
?
#11
Report 10 months ago
#11
(Original post by Napp)
Politically difficult...
Indeed, but perhaps views will change and people will come to see the value in delegating power to an international body.

...

Who am I kidding, views quickly changing in politics? Amusing.
0
reply
Napp
Badges: 22
Rep:
?
#12
Report Thread starter 10 months ago
#12
(Original post by A giant chicken)
Indeed, but perhaps views will change and people will come to see the value in delegating power to an international body.

...

Who am I kidding, views quickly changing in politics? Amusing.
I can never remember the exact quote but it was something akin to comparing politicians to kites who drift whichever way the wind is blowing :lol:
0
reply
Quady
Badges: 20
Rep:
?
#13
Report 10 months ago
#13
(Original post by imlikeahermit)
Can’t wait till he gets Brexit done and sticks the final stake into the heart of the British Economy. Can’t wait to see the fireworks lit above Sunderland as they plummet deep back into the 70s... like you said, what a time to be alive. Getting a tear in my eye just typing it!
The 70s had a three day working week and ship building on the Wear.

Going back to the 70s would be back to a golden age.
0
reply
uberteknik
  • Study Helper
Badges: 21
Rep:
?
#14
Report 10 months ago
#14
(Original post by Napp)
I can never remember the exact quote but it was something akin to comparing politicians to kites who drift whichever way the wind is blowing :lol:
Not come across that one, but it is apt for so called liberal democracy.

I'd offer another for autocracy and capitalist communism: more like a sail boat whose captain sets the sails to catch the wind from whichever direction in order to reach the desired destination.

I'm not an admirer of say Putin, Xi, Erdogan, Kim and others, but, there is a logic. Cannot forget that the price is paid by commoners with their lives as the 'Admirality' crushes anyone who gets in the way and places fear in the hearts of those who may mutiny.

Hmmmm. I feel a new thread for 'make it more pirate-ey' coming on. Lol.
Last edited by uberteknik; 10 months ago
0
reply
Fullofsurprises
Badges: 20
Rep:
?
#15
Report 10 months ago
#15
(Original post by Quady)
The 70s had a three day working week and ship building on the Wear.

Going back to the 70s would be back to a golden age.
We really do need to bring more manufacturing back to the UK, particularly in things like pharma, food production, quality manufactures and other areas. The UK isn't nowhere in these sectors, it just needs more incentivising and something like a green new deal would be good. We could be world leaders in alternative power, electric vehicles, new low-consumption machines, etc, etc.
1
reply
A giant chicken
Badges: 16
Rep:
?
#16
Report 10 months ago
#16
(Original post by Napp)
I can never remember the exact quote but it was something akin to comparing politicians to kites who drift whichever way the wind is blowing :lol:
Ah yes that's a great way to sum it up.

I think my personal favorite is the quote by Austin Mitchell: 'My career in parliament has been spent throwing paper aeroplanes at a bulldozer'... always makes me laugh
0
reply
Fullofsurprises
Badges: 20
Rep:
?
#17
Report 10 months ago
#17
(Original post by A giant chicken)
I think my personal favorite is the quote by Austin Mitchell: 'My career in parliament has been spent throwing paper aeroplanes at a bulldozer'... always makes me laugh
Great quote, but very sad - the backbench MP isn't a particularly glorious role and the executive do everything they can to diminish it further. That's why the establishment loathed the last Speaker - he defended the rights of the backbenches and gave them more power.
0
reply
A giant chicken
Badges: 16
Rep:
?
#18
Report 10 months ago
#18
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Great quote, but very sad - the backbench MP isn't a particularly glorious role and the executive do everything they can to diminish it further. That's why the establishment loathed the last Speaker - he defended the rights of the backbenches and gave them more power.
Ah yes but that's the joy in the Westminster model... only the ministers of the party in power actually have the ability to do something
0
reply
HayekGuy
Badges: 9
Rep:
?
#19
Report 10 months ago
#19
It will be an interesting time to see how long this recession/depression lasts. I can negative growth only last for a relatively short while, (a matter of months) but the economy will take years to recover from what has gone on.
0
reply
Wōden
Badges: 15
Rep:
?
#20
Report 10 months ago
#20
(Original post by A giant chicken)
I like the interesting take on the end about government's refusing to give a sufficient degree of power to international organizations such as the W.H.O. The same could be said for the League of Nations coming up to WW2 or even the UN now...

I wonder if this signals the need for governments to finally give sufficient power to such bodies as we seemingly walk into crisis after crisis unprepared because governments fail to do what's necessary?
What makes you think international bodies will be any more successful in managing crises such as this than national governments? What powers do you think they should be given, to whom will they be accountable to and how can we get rid of them if they misuse their power?

The response to the coronvirus pandemic is starting to worry me more than the virus itself...
1
reply
X

Quick Reply

Attached files
Write a reply...
Reply
new posts
Back
to top
Latest
My Feed

See more of what you like on
The Student Room

You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

Personalise

What factors affect your mental health the most right now?

Anxiousness about lockdown easing (126)
4.97%
Uncertainty around my education (373)
14.71%
Uncertainty around my future career prospects (279)
11%
Lack of purpose or motivation (356)
14.04%
Lack of support system (eg. teachers, counsellors, delays in care) (117)
4.61%
Impact of lockdown on physical health (153)
6.03%
Loneliness (217)
8.56%
Financial worries (94)
3.71%
Concern about myself or my loves ones getting/having been ill (106)
4.18%
Exposure to negative news/social media (120)
4.73%
Lack of real life entertainment (133)
5.24%
Lack of confidence in making big life decisions (222)
8.75%
Worry about missed opportunities during the pandemic (240)
9.46%

Watched Threads

View All