Coronavirus Megathread Part II

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bj27
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#61
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#61
(Original post by barnetlad)
One of the things that harms mental health is uncertainty. So deciding a minimum period of closure as the Germans and French have done for large scale events is in a way helpful to mental health, as it brings certainty. I had wanted to go to Oktoberfest in Munich this year, but the decision to cancel has been made, so I do not waste money and time any more.
Oktoberfest is good btw. I highly recommend.
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Fullofsurprises
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#62
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#62
Sorry folks. It's going to be years, not weeks, before some things return to 'normal' and even then, they probably won't.
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Fullofsurprises
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#63
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#63
Just to note, the UK government still haven't met the need for PPE in the hospitals, the most basic step in the war against Covid-19.

Some hospitals have resorted to making their own.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...0-visors-a-day

It's like Russia in WW2 or the 19th century.
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Fullofsurprises
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#64
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#64
I'm trying to introduce an element of reality. What do you think is going to rapidly return to normal? Give a few examples and I'll be happy to explain, with sourced references, why not.
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username402722
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#65
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#65
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Sorry folks. It's going to be years, not weeks, before some things return to 'normal' and even then, they probably won't.
If there is not a vaccine there will I think still remain some restrictions for a long time. Perhaps you won't be able to visit someone in a care home, for some countries there may be quarantine or some other restrictions.
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Pinkisk
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#66
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#66
I heard from a pharmacist friend today that there is a shortage of inhalers in the UK and that pharmacies are advising patients against ordering more than they need. Bad timing for this shortage, especially considering the allergy season.
Last edited by Pinkisk; 11 months ago
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Fullofsurprises
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#67
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#67
(Original post by Pinkisk)
I heard from a pharmacist friend today that there is a shortage of inhalers in the UK and that pharmacies are advising patients against ordering more than they need.
Given the various dislocations, it's actually surprising there aren't more shortages.

Apparently China is going around the world bulk-buying various foodstuffs as they fear shortages in foods will emerge this summer due to disrupted production and supply chains.
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username963570
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#68
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#68
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
I'm trying to introduce an element of reality. What do you think is going to rapidly return to normal? Give a few examples and I'll be happy to explain, with sourced references, why not.
What aspects of our life will not return to normal for years, in your opinion?
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Pinkisk
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#69
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#69
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Given the various dislocations, it's actually surprising there aren't more shortages.

Apparently China is going around the world bulk-buying various foodstuffs as they fear shortages in foods will emerge this summer due to disrupted production and supply chains.
Interesting.
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Sammylou40
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#70
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#70
(Original post by changedman27)
Um, why don't you actually be kind to people like me who are suffering. We actually want to here some positive news, so go on tell me, what positive news have you seen today, what light at the end of the tunnel have you found today because I can't see any.

Real mature calling me a troll. Why do you think I am a troll. I want to see my friends again, I want to be able to go to a sports match, I want to be able to go to the cinema, the beach and to start driving lessons. I don't want to be sitting on my arse not being able to do anything
Kind to you?
given that you’ve been saying the same thing over and over and over I think people are being entirely restrained
Its hard for you is it?
no football? Snap
no concerts or theatre? Snap
can’t see friends? Snap
can’t chase wannabe girlfriends? Nope. Happily married
so that’s the extent of your wingeing.
Some people are experiencing real difficulties
for example, in the last month my mother in law died. Alone. Was cremated. Alone.
my youngest sons friend and his father died of the virus.
my youngest son has lost his job

As a general rule I have a reputation on tsr for patience. Compassion. And being non judgemental
but you are really pushing my buttons with your incessant whinging and whining
just shut up
Last edited by Sammylou40; 11 months ago
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Fullofsurprises
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#71
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#71
(Original post by Fas)
What aspects of our life will not return to normal for years, in your opinion?
Regular travel overseas - many airlines will go bust, former tourist areas bankrupt. Widespread and casual car use. (people are not going to accept a return to mass polluted cities - this is already becoming clear globally.) Use of outside eating - numerous restaurants are going to close - this trend was already developing before the virus hit. Pubs/bar life. High employment - there will now be a prolonged unemployment crisis. Political turmoil and social disorder will be widespread and sustained. There will continue to be severe difficulties in the health sector and in service sectors involving personal contact. It will remain difficult to reopen normal office / social life.

Of course, if a vaccine is developed early (let's hope) and distributed widely (the UK is currently joining the US and Switzerland in trying to block international moves to liberalise drug patents to permit widespread circulation, eg, our government is attempting to ensure that our Big Pharma corporates continue to profit from overpriced drugs and restrict sales of vaccines to developing countries), which is far from certain, some of these things will go better. But the runes are not strongly positive.
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bj27
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#72
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#72
Virgin Atlantic are trying to find someone to bail them out and are leveraged 10x debt to equity.
Thomas Cook went bust last year.
Ryan Air probably will cut jobs.
BA will be in trouble but will be covered by the government if it got really bad.

They're restarting travel from July but where can you go to? Will there be demand to go on planes like before when there's a decent chance you can be locked in the country you visit and not be able to come back home?

I don't think it's a matter of years, but I think around October we'll see normality, right in time for a second wave.
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Sammylou40
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#73
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#73
We’ve found something we agree on!!
Unis are doing quite badly with this
They can’t furlough most staff as they are government funded. Money is tight and teaching is being affected quite badly for a lot of courses. That’s why my son lost his job
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Fullofsurprises
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#74
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#74
I just think that things are going to be worse than the government or mass media are currently saying. Universities are a case in point - it is highly likely that some will go bust, a number have huge debts that were unsustainable even before the crisis. The government when pressed have come out with some evasive half-measures promised to deal with this, so I still think it's highly likely that some will go bust in the coming months. By then, there will be so many bankruptcy casualties demanding government help that it's hard to see they will all be rescued.

Going back to the flights, the fact that Ryanair are saying they will restart flights as normal in July does not make it so. They need passengers to sustain it and passengers need places to go. Tourism will remain locked down, or partially locked down, for many months to come - we are simply not going to have the usual summer of travel this year. That means than many airlines that are highly leveraged are also likely to go under and even Ryanair will struggle. My guess is they will downscale their plans and then when we hit July they will postpone to the Autumn and so on.
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Pinkisk
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#75
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#75
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Regular travel overseas - many airlines will go bust, former tourist areas bankrupt. Widespread and casual car use. (people are not going to accept a return to mass polluted cities - this is already becoming clear globally.) Use of outside eating - numerous restaurants are going to close - this trend was already developing before the virus hit. Pubs/bar life. High employment - there will now be a prolonged unemployment crisis. Political turmoil and social disorder will be widespread and sustained. There will continue to be severe difficulties in the health sector and in service sectors involving personal contact. It will remain difficult to reopen normal office / social life.

Of course, if a vaccine is developed early (let's hope) and distributed widely (the UK is currently joining the US and Switzerland in trying to block international moves to liberalise drug patents to permit widespread circulation, eg, our government is attempting to ensure that our Big Pharma corporates continue to profit from overpriced drugs and restrict sales of vaccines to developing countries), which is far from certain, some of these things will go better. But the runes are not strongly positive.
My worry is for certain other things that not many people might notice e.g. protests. Protests are an essential method by which people challenge authority, bring matters/abuses to light and enforce change. Governments might use this pandemic as an excuse to impose certain unpopular matters and ban methods by which they can be challenged by the population e.g. protests. We are already seeing this practice being implemented in countries like France against the Yellow Vest protests. We are even seeing it here where protests are being disbanded by police using the virus as an excuse. People are being denied the right to protest...whether justified or not, this, to me, is a worrying development.
Last edited by Pinkisk; 11 months ago
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TheMcSame
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#76
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#76
What sort of BS is the media throwing around? Genuine question. Not something I've been keeping up on besides the briefings, the odd thing I've come across on FB and reported figures.
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bj27
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#77
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#77
That's a subset of the amount of people who will be travelling.
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TigerRoll
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#78
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#78
They don't have the Daily Mail (well apart from Australia).
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bj27
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#79
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#79
To those saying sweden have better statistics than us.
In 2017 Sweden had 365k overnight stays from Chinese people.
In 2018 UK had 2M overnight stays from Chinese people.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...nd-and-sweden/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...modation-type/

It's quite clear that Chinese people would rather go to the UK than Sweden. Since China was the source of the virus most likely Sweden didn't have enough Chinese people coming in the first place to cause an exponential rise.

I doubt within 3 years Sweden have increased Chinese tourism 7x to compete with the UK.
Last edited by bj27; 11 months ago
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Fullofsurprises
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#80
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#80
(Original post by bj27)
To those saying sweden have better statistics than us.
In 2017 Sweden had 365k overnight stays from Chinese people.
In 2018 UK had 2M overnight stays from Chinese people.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...nd-and-sweden/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...modation-type/

It's quite clear that Chinese people would rather go to the UK than Sweden. Since China was the source of the virus most likely Sweden didn't have enough Chinese people coming in the first place to cause an exponential rise.

I doubt within 3 years Sweden have increased Chinese tourism 7x to compete with the UK.
I realise people coming from Mainland China to the UK in the early days of the crisis probably helped spread it here, but just a teensy reminder that it is widely thought that the first spreader was a British white middle class man returning from business trips in Singapore, HK and Malaysia.
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