Coronavirus Megathread Part II

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bj27
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#81
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#81
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
I realise people coming from Mainland China to the UK in the early days of the crisis probably helped spread it here, but just a teensy reminder that it is widely thought that the first spreader was a British white middle class man returning from business trips in Singapore, HK and Malaysia.
I am aware that it has come from other sources and not just Chinese people, which again goes to the point that there is a lot of tourism to certain countries in Europe in general, us included, more so than Sweden. I'm guessing the people who went to Italy and Spain in late February probably spread the virus too, also having thousands of fans from Madrid going to the Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid champions league match in the middle of March while Spain was in semi lockdown probably didn't help matters either.
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fallen_acorns
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#82
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#82
They aren't at the moment.. so many countries are locked down and closed off. Its hard to go anywhere at the moment even for work/study.
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harrysbar
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#83
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#83
(Original post by TigerRoll)
What do these parents do with their children in the summer holiday?
In the holidays there are play schemes where parents who are working can pay to have their children looked after from 8-5 or similar. That provision is not available during term time which is why some key workers would not be able to go to their jobs in hospitals, care homes, supermarkets etc unless schools were open to supervise their children.
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fallen_acorns
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#84
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#84
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-52701850

bbc pointing out something that we really didn't need a survey to know.
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harrysbar
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#85
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#85
(Original post by fallen_acorns)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-52701850

bbc pointing out something that we really didn't need a survey to know.
Yes and that's another reason why some children are better off coming into school
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fallen_acorns
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#86
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#86
Hopefully, but its hard to say. Many countries are still suggesting their borders will be shut for a long while, and while there have been some slithers of good news (new zealand looking at options for int. students, China opening up for high level business people) the feeling seems to be that these measures will be around until a vaccine, which will be a long way past august.
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TigerRoll
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#87
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#87
I'm looking forward to the end of the summer holidays.
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fallen_acorns
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#88
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#88
I think when we look back at this crisis in years to come the reflection will be that actually our health service coped quite well. It never reached capacity, never ran out of ventilators or the like, and while PPE was a constant problem it managed, and healthcare workers have a lower chance of dying then the general public.

On the other hand, the areas we absolutely failed in are: care homes, and preventative/limiting measures.

While doctors have a fairly low chance of dying, care home workers are dying well above the rate of the population overall, and PPE is almost non-existent in many homes. Staff are being asked to provide for them selves, and the sector in general has just failed to manage this at all, and the government has shown no plan or ability to do anything about it.

As for preventative measures, we failed to test enough early on, when testing is so crucial - and only reached a significant number when the peak had already past.. and then we have failed to reach that number for the majority of days since. Contact tracing (something that proved so effective in other countries) has been non-existant, and our savior-app is still in testing. And our lock down, and its opening was poorly though through, and ineffective partly due to the government refusing to treat different areas of the country differently, despite them having different needs/circumstances. We also failed to put in place any sort of quarantine on our boarders, let alone close them as most of the successful countries have.

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Before this crisis we were all so worried about the NHS, and that was the big fear-factor being peddled.. but actually the NHS has been pretty great, and the goverment has been pretty good at handling it.

Its everything else that they have ****ed up on.
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fallen_acorns
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#89
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#89
Of course UK universities are, our boarders have never been shut In fact, it could be great for us - if NZ/AUS/USA etc. don't open up for international students, it would be a huge boost to the UKs higher education sector, and help offset some of the losses they are going to face next year.

International universities are still provisionally giving out places, in the same way that international companies are still provisionally giving out jobs, they are all hoping that things will open up and when they do, the students/employees they have recruited can come. None of them know this though, or have the power to make this happen - I have job offers at the moment from companies in different countries and they are all in the dark, just waiting and hoping things open up.

The reality is though, that until there is a vaccine (or the acceptance that there may never be one), the only way countries like New Zealand who have almost entirely beaten the virus can be sure it wont come back, is by keeping their borders closed. They all know this, and even your more open minded and liberal countries like Canada/New Zealand, and in asia, Tawian etc. are all admitting that things won't be open any time soon.
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fallen_acorns
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#90
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#90
Your right - it isn't particularly useful to close your borders down while your getting, for example, 4000 cases a day from local transmission.

The case for most of these countries though, is that they are looking at what happens after you get a grip on your own local transmission. Places like Taiwan, Hong Kong, New Zealand etc. have all pretty much sorted their own cases, to the point where they get a couple a day/week at most and a lot of those are returning citizens. As long as their borders are closed and no one is coming in, they know that the virus will eventually be beaten in their own country, if it hasn't already. But were they to open their borders up, and thousands of people began to fly in, they now have a huge problem. Its hard to quarantine so many new arrivals, and you can't trust them to do it themselves because some won't. All you need is one person starting one new outbreak that goes un-noticed for a while, and your back 3 months of progress, and right into the middle of a crisis again.

The only short-term solution that seems to be popular is countries grouping together with other 'safer' countries to form blocks where travel between them is easier. New zealand talked about a block with them, australia and a lot of the smaller island nations near there. China and korea are working together to soften the rules between them and open things up etc. I really wouldn't be surprised if we start to see blocks of countries working together as an intermediate stage before places open up fully.

Its staggering the amount of countries that have closed their borders fully or partially though. We, the UK, are really one of the exceptions at the moment. I hope things open up as soon as possible, but goverments around the world are telling us not to get our hopes up. China for example has said to its public that they are economically prepared for a long lockdown if that's what needed.
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fallen_acorns
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#91
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#91
Inside China, in most places normality has resumed. Not completely though, schools aren't back for all ages in most places. But China is 100% closed to foreigners at the moment, including people with Chinese family like myself. That's their plan, get back to normal on the inside, while keeping the outside locked out.
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fallen_acorns
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#92
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#92
I'm starting to get frustrated by the coverage of this.

I think we need to move into a 'common sense' type policing which is more nuanced in its approach..

For example, as far as I can see on the news, this week fines were issued for:

A rave of 70 people that completely (and purposely it seems) ignored social distancing).

A group of 8 households who went wild camping in a national park, kept their social distance, and camped apart from each other.

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One of those is a risk to public health, one isn't. Yet the both receive fines, and they both get punished.

We need to start trusting people to make decisions, and giving the police the right tool kit to differentiate between people who are putting others at risk and who aren't. Wild camping away from anyone else, isn't a risk at all.. raves are.. seems simple. Having a BBQ with 10 family members crammed into a small grass space = not good.. meeting up with your mum and dad at the same time from another household while keeping your distance = good. But both aren't allowed at the moment.

Public opinion of the government and lock down is slipping downwards at the moment, and I think part of it is because people are fed up with parts that don't make sense. 99% of us get that social distancing and limitations are required, but people loose confidence in the plan when they can see things that they can do that are 100% safe, but they aren't allowed to.. especially if at the same time they can see things which aren't safe, but are happening.

For example lets say I am a dad of a 6 year old. I'm told that its not at all ok for me to take my kid camping miles away from anyone else.. but I am told that it is ok for my kid to go back to school for a pointless month where they will socialize with many other kids/teachers potentially spreading the virus between all the families. That doesn't make sense at all.
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fallen_acorns
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#93
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#93
Maybe, but that would seem ineffective, because there are already hundreds of thousand if not millions of foreign people living in China at the moment who could leave or say something. They didn't kick all foreign people out, just stopped more coming in.
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MrDystopia
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#94
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#94
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52713127

Criteria for testing is set to be expanded to all those over 5 years old with symptoms.
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Neilos
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#95
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#95
(Original post by fallen_acorns)
I'm starting to get frustrated by the coverage of this.

I think we need to move into a 'common sense' type policing which is more nuanced in its approach..

For example, as far as I can see on the news, this week fines were issued for:

A rave of 70 people that completely (and purposely it seems) ignored social distancing).

A group of 8 households who went wild camping in a national park, kept their social distance, and camped apart from each other.

---

One of those is a risk to public health, one isn't. Yet the both receive fines, and they both get punished.

We need to start trusting people to make decisions, and giving the police the right tool kit to differentiate between people who are putting others at risk and who aren't. Wild camping away from anyone else, isn't a risk at all.. raves are.. seems simple. Having a BBQ with 10 family members crammed into a small grass space = not good.. meeting up with your mum and dad at the same time from another household while keeping your distance = good. But both aren't allowed at the moment.

Public opinion of the government and lock down is slipping downwards at the moment, and I think part of it is because people are fed up with parts that don't make sense. 99% of us get that social distancing and limitations are required, but people loose confidence in the plan when they can see things that they can do that are 100% safe, but they aren't allowed to.. especially if at the same time they can see things which aren't safe, but are happening.

For example lets say I am a dad of a 6 year old. I'm told that its not at all ok for me to take my kid camping miles away from anyone else.. but I am told that it is ok for my kid to go back to school for a pointless month where they will socialize with many other kids/teachers potentially spreading the virus between all the families. That doesn't make sense at all.
The laws are odd and definitely flawed from a 'sense' point of view, but I think they're more or less as good as they could be at doing what they're there to do (at this stage).

Some of it makes no medical sense at all - like the camping trips, or the fact we can go inside B&Q but can't legally allow one person to stand two metres away in our garden. You'd be safer in a socially-distanced beer garden than in a supermarket, and someone with a big garden could safely host an outdoor gathering of 10+ friends. But it's only ever been a quick, dirty (by necessity) way of making any kind of optional social interaction or leisure activity appear undesirable and wrong. We're having to give up safe stuff because they're worried it could easily trickle over into the unsafe and get slippery slopes going. In the heavy management stage I think that's the right thing to do.

Obviously, though, as you say that's coming with the downside of confidence being eroded because people can very easily see that the restrictions don't make sense in all situations. I like to think the application of widespread common sense will be part of the next stage of virus management, when the risk is a little lower.
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fallen_acorns
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#96
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#96
(Original post by Neilos)
The laws are odd and definitely flawed from a 'sense' point of view, but I think they're more or less as good as they could be at doing what they're there to do (at this stage).

Some of it makes no medical sense at all - like the camping trips, or the fact we can go inside B&Q but can't legally allow one person to stand two metres away in our garden. You'd be safer in a socially-distanced beer garden than in a supermarket, and someone with a big garden could safely host an outdoor gathering of 10+ friends. But it's only ever been a quick, dirty (by necessity) way of making any kind of optional social interaction or leisure activity appear undesirable and wrong. We're having to give up safe stuff because they're worried it could easily trickle over into the unsafe and get slippery slopes going. In the heavy management stage I think that's the right thing to do.

Obviously, though, as you say that's coming with the downside of confidence being eroded because people can very easily see that the restrictions don't make sense in all situations. I like to think the application of widespread common sense will be part of the next stage of virus management, when the risk is a little lower.
I understand what your saying, and I think on the whole people understood that during the first phase of the lockdown. People, including myself, realised that yes you have to give up some of what's safe so that we deter people from doing what's unsafe.

Its really just starting to change though now that we are in the second phase. it was always going to be much harder to motivate people to be safe as soon as you calm the rhetoric down and tell people that things are getting better. As soon as they said things 'might' open by monday (last week) the weekend before, I saw a huge increase in people out and about and groups doing things. Because once you tell people its getting better they relax, they think 'oh a couple of days doesn't matter' etc. What I think they need to do is take a lesson from good teaching.

In a classroom good teachers have a minimal number of rules that are designed to catch really negative behavior, and those rules are enforced strictly and 100% of the time. But above those rules there is plenty of room for freedom so that those who are well behaved can express themselves, and the class as a whole doesn't turn against the teacher. The rule set is small, and only includes rules that the teacher can fully explain and justify, nothing iffy or butty or grey.

New teachers who are a bit lacking in confidence don't do this. They make a larger list of arbitrary rules that change all the time, sometimes contradict each other.. and then they are very spotty in picking up on them, sometimes letting them slide when they don't want the hassle, and sometimes sticking to the more weird/extreme rules even when it doesn't make sense.

For me, the government needs to take the first type of approach, now we are over the worst. Set a small but perfectly logical list of rules, and then enforce them really harshly for anyone breaking them. But above that line, you trust people to make their own judgements and live their own lives, as the vast majority will do so in a safe way.

Instead what I think is happening now that we are in the second part of this outbreak is more like the new-teacher model.. where they have so many contradictory positions that don't make sense.. they are punishing sensible people who break illogical rules, and don't have the authority or willingness to really crack down on the bad people who actually want to disobey... they aren't showing trust in people or businesses to make their own decisions etc.

I think they did a good job in the first part of this outbreak with a clear simple logical message: Stay at home, leave once a day for essentials. Social distance. - simple, clear, and effective. Its just now, in the second phase that they are loosing me a bit.
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NJA
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#97
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#97
Downing Street briefing, Boris the Invisible Man again
Last edited by NJA; 11 months ago
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Uniguy900
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#98
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#98
Looks like by the time this is over there is going to be nothing left. No fun to he had or anything, Bella Italia and Cafe Rouge have confirmed they will close.

We really need to stop this before it's too late, open up the country now or we will never enjoy life again
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NJA
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#99
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#99
(Original post by Uniguy900)
Looks like by the time this is over there is going to be nothing left. No fun to he had or anything, Bella Italia and Cafe Rouge have confirmed they will close.

We really need to stop this before it's too late, open up the country now or we will never enjoy life again
we might get independent artisan cafes instead
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TigerRoll
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#100
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#100
(Original post by Uniguy900)
Looks like by the time this is over there is going to be nothing left. No fun to he had or anything, Bella Italia and Cafe Rouge have confirmed they will close.

We really need to stop this before it's too late, open up the country now or we will never enjoy life again
We can come round yours for food and a pissup. You sould like a bundle of ****...sorry fun.
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