Will the tourism industry recover after COVID-19?

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username5314622
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#1
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#1
I think it will, however will take a considerable amount of time.
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TigerRoll
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#2
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#2
Tourism industry where? UK, European, Global?
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username5314622
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#3
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#3
(Original post by TigerRoll)
Tourism industry where? UK, European, Global?
UK and Europe
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Joinedup
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#4
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#4
I think everyone will be inclined to stay in their own country more than usual - basically avoiding planes where you're sealed in and breathing recycled air as far as possible... which would benefit some parts of the tourism industry more than others.
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TigerRoll
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#5
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#5
(Original post by EwanSolna)
UK and Europe
It will eventually. When people have money to go on holidays again. I'm not struggling for money right now but if I had the time and availability, I'd want a change of scenery and go abroad for a holiday, not 'holiday at home' as I expect a lot of the UK tourism industry hopes will happen.
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username402722
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#6
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#6
I think parts of the UK tourism industry will not recover and some holiday accommodation will close. I don't think all flights will resume. The economic impact of job losses may be felt for several years.
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Smack
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#7
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(Original post by Joinedup)
I think everyone will be inclined to stay in their own country more than usual - basically avoiding planes where you're sealed in and breathing recycled air as far as possible... which would benefit some parts of the tourism industry more than others.
To date I have read very little super-spreader literature, but haven't heard of any outbreaks being linked back to air travel. Don't (passenger) aeroplanes typically have good ventilation systems and HEPA filters? What about back in Q1 when people were still flying all over the world - were pilots and air crew disproportionately being infected? Again, I don't have the answers; I'm just wondering whether air travel really is as dangerous as some may think given that it's a confined space.
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Joinedup
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#8
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#8
(Original post by Smack)
To date I have read very little super-spreader literature, but haven't heard of any outbreaks being linked back to air travel. Don't (passenger) aeroplanes typically have good ventilation systems and HEPA filters? What about back in Q1 when people were still flying all over the world - were pilots and air crew disproportionately being infected? Again, I don't have the answers; I'm just wondering whether air travel really is as dangerous as some may think given that it's a confined space.
I'm not sure what the real risk is but I think everyone's going to be on edge about being physically close to other people for a few months yet... And most peoples experience of air travel is being crammed in uncomfortably closely with strangers.

I think people are going to be wary of cruise ships too.
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DeltaFox
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#9
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#9
Hey! I fly for a living so I damn well hope so hah. In regards to planes, the most recent research shows that due to air filtration, they're as sterile in that regard as operating theatres. Additional measures have been taken and new rules to make it safer too, such as masks, minimal crew contact, prepackaged meals, no toilet queues, etc.

As for the travel industry - reports are suggesting a lot of countries will not open their borders again until early 2021 (Such as Australia and Singapore), whereas China and Hong Kong are already open again and have been for a while. Countries that depend extremely heavily on tourism may be forced to reopen early, such as Dubai and a lot of Africa. Italy reopened recently too.

Tourism is vital for the transfer of wealth from wealthy to poor countries, and the desire for personal travel will return.

But it won't be with the same providers. Companies are being decimated, but that leaves an opportunity for someone else to take their place, knowing it's tried and tested. Estimates early on in the crisis showed the tourism and travel industry is set to lose $60b globally due to this.

The reason major airlines like BA and Emirates are struggling, is they made the majority of their money from business class pax. Companies have invested heavily in remote working and this practice has become commonplace. The face-to-face meetings of pre-COVID will take a long time to return, and it's unclear to what scale they'll come back.
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username402722
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#10
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#10
(Original post by Joinedup)
I'm not sure what the real risk is but I think everyone's going to be on edge about being physically close to other people for a few months yet... And most peoples experience of air travel is being crammed in uncomfortably closely with strangers.

I think people are going to be wary of cruise ships too.
Cruise ships I can understand given that many of the people who holiday on them are in the most at risk groups, and if there is a case you are in your room unable to go out even for a walk.

Flying I can imagine it will not be the flight itself that will be the main cause for concern but the airports/customs etc.
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username402722
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#11
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#11
(Original post by DeltaFox)
Hey! I fly for a living so I damn well hope so hah. In regards to planes, the most recent research shows that due to air filtration, they're as sterile in that regard as operating theatres. Additional measures have been taken and new rules to make it safer too, such as masks, minimal crew contact, prepackaged meals, no toilet queues, etc.

As for the travel industry - reports are suggesting a lot of countries will not open their borders again until early 2021 (Such as Australia and Singapore), whereas China and Hong Kong are already open again and have been for a while. Countries that depend extremely heavily on tourism may be forced to reopen early, such as Dubai and a lot of Africa. Italy reopened recently too.

Tourism is vital for the transfer of wealth from wealthy to poor countries, and the desire for personal travel will return.

But it won't be with the same providers. Companies are being decimated, but that leaves an opportunity for someone else to take their place, knowing it's tried and tested. Estimates early on in the crisis showed the tourism and travel industry is set to lose $60b globally due to this.

The reason major airlines like BA and Emirates are struggling, is they made the majority of their money from business class pax. Companies have invested heavily in remote working and this practice has become commonplace. The face-to-face meetings of pre-COVID will take a long time to return, and it's unclear to what scale they'll come back.
BA have not exactly helped themselves over the last few years with their approach to standard class customers. People expect something from a flag carrier that they have abandoned under Willie Walsh. Now if they abandon Gatwick for good, I can imagine they will suffer even more.
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DeltaFox
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#12
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#12
(Original post by barnetlad)
BA have not exactly helped themselves over the last few years with their approach to standard class customers. People expect something from a flag carrier that they have abandoned under Willie Walsh. Now if they abandon Gatwick for good, I can imagine they will suffer even more.
Oh totally on the first point. They spent all their money on the Club class product, at the expense of pinching every penny down the back in Economy. Now business pax are gone and so they're scrambling. Gonna end up flying planes 2/3rds empty with Club normally accounting for 60% of the revenue.

I do see the withdrawal from Gatwick and retraction to Heathrow as a smart move though. Consolidating to LHR means they can keep valuable slots, much harder to acquire than they are at Gatwick. LGW has always been... difficult in terms of revenue fluctuations. That's why it's run as a separate financial entity within BA, and wasn't bailed out when it nearly collapsed a few years ago (they ran freight services as they didn't have any pax... they'd to check day-by-day if they could pay the bills or had to fold).
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Qer
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#13
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#13
I think easily. Once Covid situation gets under control (lets say when there is vaccine and no more death). People are going to travel more than previous years.
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Other_Owl
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#14
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#14
Gradually but alot slower due to Brexit.
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username402722
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#15
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#15
(Original post by Qer)
I think easily. Once Covid situation gets under control (lets say when there is vaccine and no more death). People are going to travel more than previous years.
The vaccine may not even be in time for next summer. Some tourist facilities and places operate on small margins or on low occupancy for much of the year, and I think will go out of business. There may be some making up for lost time, but not to places that disappear.
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