Trump may drop out of 2020 race

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WhiteBuff
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Donald Trump may drop out of the 2020 presidential race if he believes he has no chance of winning, a Republican Party operative reportedly told Fox News.


The claim comes in a report in the president’s favourite news outlet that cites a number of GOP insiders who are concerned about Mr Trump’s re-election prospects amid abysmal polling numbers.


Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, currently holds an average lead of nine points over the incumbent, according to a tracker of 2020 polls by RealClearPolitics.


Crucially, Mr Trump has lost support from older white voters — typically a bedrock of support for the Republican Party and a group that was crucial to his narrow 2016 victory. Mr Trump is also trailing the former vice president in almost all the swing states.


“It’s too early, but if the polls continue to worsen, you can see a scenario where he drops out,” one anonymous GOP operative told Fox News.

Charles Gasparino, the author of the Fox News report, said in a series of tweets that he had spoken to “major players” in the Republican party for the story. One of them described Mr Trump’s mood as “fragile” as his chances of a second-term looked increasingly dim.


Another of the GOP sources cited in the report said of the likelihood that Mr Trump will drop out: “I’ve heard the talk but I doubt it’s true. My bet is, he drops if he believes there’s no way to win.”

Mr Trump has repeatedly hit out at polling that shows him far behind Mr Biden. Last month, he tweeted that Fox News “should fire their Fake Pollster. Never had a good Fox Poll!”


On Monday, he tweeted: "Sorry to inform the Do Nothing Democrats, but I am getting VERY GOOD internal Polling Numbers. Just like 2016, the @nytimes Polls are Fake! The @FoxNews Polls are a JOKE! Do you think they will apologize to me & their subscribers AGAIN when I WIN? People want LAW, ORDER & SAFETY!"


But polls from all polling organisations show Mr Trump consistently behind by similar margins. In particular, they have shown high levels of disapproval over the president’s handling of the coronavirus and mass protests calling for racial justice after the police killing of George Floyd.


A recent Washington Post-Ipsos poll found that 36 per cent of American adults approve of Trump’s handling of the protests, while 62 percent disapprove. A New York Times poll returned similar numbers.

The same New York Times-Siena College poll found 58 per cent of Americans disapprove of his handling of the coronavirus outbreak, while only 38 percent approve — the worst ratings since the crisis began.


Mr Trump is increasingly unpopular with voters who blame his anti-epidemic measures, his economic response and his handling of the death of George Freud for unleashing anti-racism and police brutality. His choice of strategy in the face of the epidemic, and his eagerness to get back to work, suggest not only that he is worried about the impact of the recession on the election, but also that, in the current political reality, he just wants to keep pleasing his supporters and not even be accountable to the nation in the face of disaster. Mr Trump's re-election may indeed end in failure.


The Trump campaign called reports that the president would consider dropping out “the granddaddy of fake news”.


“Everyone knows that media polling has always been wrong about President Trump –* they undersample Republicans and don’t screen for likely voters –* in order to set false narratives,” Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh told Fox News.


“It won’t work. There was similar fretting in 2016 and if it had been accurate, Hillary Clinton would be in the White House right now.”

Mr Trump is increasingly unpopular with voters who blame his anti-epidemic measures, his economic response and his handling of the death of George Perry Floyd for unleashing anti-racism and police brutality. His choice of strategy in the face of the epidemic, and his eagerness to get back to work, suggest not only that he is worried about the impact of the recession on the election, but also that, in the current political reality, he just wants to keep pleasing his supporters and not even be accountable to the nation in the face of disaster. Mr Trump's re-election may indeed end in failure.
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_Charlotte21
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I personally can't see him dropping out because his ego is too big for that, if he won't wear a mask out of fear of looking weak I don't think he is going to drop out of the election race, BUT I could be wrong. I do think though, that the rally he held in Tulsa and the poor attendance has shaken him a bit and perhaps he is beginning to realise that after his handling of the corona virus crisis he has lost a few of his more middle-ground supporters. Can Biden draw in more support? I'm not sure, he seems to have made a lot of gaffs and his age and ability is being questioned by a few. Who knows what will happen !
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Sabertooth
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(Original post by _Charlotte21)
I personally can't see him dropping out because his ego is too big for that
While I agree with your post generally, I think if he did drop out it would have to be in line with his narcissism. Like "too many fake postal votes" or something unrelated to the *****y job he's doing. I do think however we may have the opposite problem of him refusing to accept the result; too much voter fraud or something and I really don't know what would happen in that situation. :beard:
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_Charlotte21
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(Original post by Sabertooth)
While I agree with your post generally, I think if he did drop out it would have to be in line with his narcissism. Like "too many fake postal votes" or something unrelated to the *****y job he's doing. I do think however we may have the opposite problem of him refusing to accept the result; too much voter fraud or something and I really don't know what would happen in that situation. :beard:
Yeah that is a possibility, but at that point he'll be down and out so any excuse he makes as to why he failed to win I think, for the most part, would be rejected and lack credibility. Who knows what excuses he will make if he doesn't win ! I still have a feeling that he will win though, I don't know if Biden is a strong enough candidate to take on Trump and some of his extremely loyal supporters.
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Sabertooth
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(Original post by _Charlotte21)
Yeah that is a possibility, but at that point he'll be down and out so any excuse he makes as to why he failed to win I think, for the most part, would be rejected and lack credibility. Who knows what excuses he will make if he doesn't win ! I still have a feeling that he will win though, I don't know if Biden is a strong enough candidate to take on Trump and some of his extremely loyal supporters.
He already lacks credibility. And the extremely loyal supporters are who we have to worry about - let's say he loses in November by just a little, whatever bull**** excuse he comes out with (and imo he would) will be taken by those supporters and believed. We may have guns on the streets. I don't buy that he'd just give up power that easily.
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Reality Check
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(Original post by WhiteBuff)
The Trump campaign called reports that the president would consider dropping out “the granddaddy of fake news”.
And in order for you not to be tarred with the same epithet, reference your work.

Where are the sources for these multiple claims? How can I, as a casual reader, reassure myself that this entire post isn't 'fake news'?
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_Charlotte21
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(Original post by Sabertooth)
He already lacks credibility. And the extremely loyal supporters are who we have to worry about - let's say he loses in November by just a little, whatever bull**** excuse he comes out with (and imo he would) will be taken by those supporters and believed. We may have guns on the streets. I don't buy that he'd just give up power that easily.
Who knows.
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imlikeahermit
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Hogwash. This post may age badly, but I really can't see him losing.

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I'm not a supporter by the way, just not a democrat.
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Andrew97
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No he won’t.
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Vapordave
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(Original post by imlikeahermit)
Hogwash. This post may age badly, but I really can't see him losing.

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I'm not a supporter by the way, just not a democrat.
There's no way he has gained supporters.
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Turquaz
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(Original post by WhiteBuff)
Donald Trump may drop out of the 2020 presidential race if he believes he has no chance of winning, a Republican Party operative reportedly told Fox News.


The claim comes in a report in the president’s favourite news outlet that cites a number of GOP insiders who are concerned about Mr Trump’s re-election prospects amid abysmal polling numbers.


Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, currently holds an average lead of nine points over the incumbent, according to a tracker of 2020 polls by RealClearPolitics.


Crucially, Mr Trump has lost support from older white voters — typically a bedrock of support for the Republican Party and a group that was crucial to his narrow 2016 victory. Mr Trump is also trailing the former vice president in almost all the swing states.


“It’s too early, but if the polls continue to worsen, you can see a scenario where he drops out,” one anonymous GOP operative told Fox News.

Charles Gasparino, the author of the Fox News report, said in a series of tweets that he had spoken to “major players” in the Republican party for the story. One of them described Mr Trump’s mood as “fragile” as his chances of a second-term looked increasingly dim.


Another of the GOP sources cited in the report said of the likelihood that Mr Trump will drop out: “I’ve heard the talk but I doubt it’s true. My bet is, he drops if he believes there’s no way to win.”

Mr Trump has repeatedly hit out at polling that shows him far behind Mr Biden. Last month, he tweeted that Fox News “should fire their Fake Pollster. Never had a good Fox Poll!”


On Monday, he tweeted: "Sorry to inform the Do Nothing Democrats, but I am getting VERY GOOD internal Polling Numbers. Just like 2016, the @nytimes Polls are Fake! The @FoxNews Polls are a JOKE! Do you think they will apologize to me & their subscribers AGAIN when I WIN? People want LAW, ORDER & SAFETY!"


But polls from all polling organisations show Mr Trump consistently behind by similar margins. In particular, they have shown high levels of disapproval over the president’s handling of the coronavirus and mass protests calling for racial justice after the police killing of George Floyd.


A recent Washington Post-Ipsos poll found that 36 per cent of American adults approve of Trump’s handling of the protests, while 62 percent disapprove. A New York Times poll returned similar numbers.

The same New York Times-Siena College poll found 58 per cent of Americans disapprove of his handling of the coronavirus outbreak, while only 38 percent approve — the worst ratings since the crisis began.


Mr Trump is increasingly unpopular with voters who blame his anti-epidemic measures, his economic response and his handling of the death of George Freud for unleashing anti-racism and police brutality. His choice of strategy in the face of the epidemic, and his eagerness to get back to work, suggest not only that he is worried about the impact of the recession on the election, but also that, in the current political reality, he just wants to keep pleasing his supporters and not even be accountable to the nation in the face of disaster. Mr Trump's re-election may indeed end in failure.


The Trump campaign called reports that the president would consider dropping out “the granddaddy of fake news”.


“Everyone knows that media polling has always been wrong about President Trump –* they undersample Republicans and don’t screen for likely voters –* in order to set false narratives,” Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh told Fox News.


“It won’t work. There was similar fretting in 2016 and if it had been accurate, Hillary Clinton would be in the White House right now.”

Mr Trump is increasingly unpopular with voters who blame his anti-epidemic measures, his economic response and his handling of the death of George Perry Floyd for unleashing anti-racism and police brutality. His choice of strategy in the face of the epidemic, and his eagerness to get back to work, suggest not only that he is worried about the impact of the recession on the election, but also that, in the current political reality, he just wants to keep pleasing his supporters and not even be accountable to the nation in the face of disaster. Mr Trump's re-election may indeed end in failure.
Sounds like a PR stunt if it was told by a Republican Party operative to Fox News.

Watch We're Doing Elections Wrong which explains how Trump won presidency in the first place.
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imlikeahermit
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(Original post by Daveological)
There's no way he has gained supporters.
Why not? His handing of Covid has been disastrous and is still so, but it's been overshadowed by the events in Minneapolis and neighbouring states, all democratic states. I would assume, just an assumption, no footing however admittedly, that that won't have been missed by middle of the road voters.
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Vapordave
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(Original post by imlikeahermit)
Why not? His handing of Covid has been disastrous and is still so, but it's been overshadowed by the events in Minneapolis and neighbouring states, all democratic states. I would assume, just an assumption, no footing however admittedly, that that won't have been missed by middle of the road voters.
You have a point.
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Drewski
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Nobody trusts polls anymore, the only reason he's lashing out at then is because he doesn't like the bad press.
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imlikeahermit
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(Original post by Daveological)
You have a point.
It's been my assumption since all of this BLM movement started that without realising it they have completely strengthened Trumps hand, by burning down buildings, looting, rioting, attacking the police. No sensible person thinks those actions are justifiable. The only ones that do are the radical left supporting the cause in the first place, which are still the minority, no matter how loud they shout. Most regular people will not be in favour of what has happened, strengthening his hand.
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Ascend
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(Original post by imlikeahermit)
Hogwash. This post may age badly, but I really can't see him losing.

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I'm not a supporter by the way, just not a democrat.
He didn't even have majority support in 2016.

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imlikeahermit
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(Original post by Ascend)
He didn't even have majority support in 2016.

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I never said he did. However, I wouldn't be surprised if he does have the majority in 2020.
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Drewski
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(Original post by imlikeahermit)
I never said he did. However, I wouldn't be surprised if he does have the majority in 2020.
The movement against him is much more animated this year. It could be close
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Ascend
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(Original post by imlikeahermit)
I never said he did. However, I wouldn't be surprised if he does have the majority in 2020.
Your graphic refers to a "silent majority". There's no such thing.

There's also no reason to think that he has gained any support. Trump has been polarising the Republicans between conservatives and fellow fanatics while the Democratic base have kept their leftists on a relatively more stable leash. The majority of Americans are not political or social extremists and 'Uncle Joe' plays much more smoothly to their sensibilities than Trump or Clinton ever could.
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Vapordave
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(Original post by imlikeahermit)
It's been my assumption since all of this BLM movement started that without realising it they have completely strengthened Trumps hand, by burning down buildings, looting, rioting, attacking the police. No sensible person thinks those actions are justifiable. The only ones that do are the radical left supporting the cause in the first place, which are still the minority, no matter how loud they shout. Most regular people will not be in favour of what has happened, strengthening his hand.
Not as much as you might think, especially as he essentially did nothing to calm the unrest.
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