Lightning720
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"As many as two in five teacher-assessed GCSE and A-level grades could be moderated downwards this year, Tes understands.

Insiders predict this summer's results will be a shock and fear a backlash because they could look "terrible".

Previous modelling by the FFT Education Datalab found that teacher-assessed GCSE grades were higher than 2019 scores, and that up to a third could be inflated.

Exam board modelling has backed up that level of disparity but insiders say it may well be higher still, with 40 per cent of grades being changed a "likely" outcome.

Insiders stress that despite the overall high number of grade changes, they may not change very much for each individual student.

However, the changes are likely to be bunched around the most common middle-ranking grades – such as 4 and 5 at GCSE – which, for many students, are also the most crucial."

Read the full article here - https://www.tes.com/news/exclusive-w...des-may-change
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Cupcakehugs
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this is ****ing messed up
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laurawatt
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(Original post by Cupcakehugs)
this is ****ing messed up
They have to make sure that roughly the same proportion of students get the same grades as last year (and the years before) Plenty of students don't get their predicted grades each year, and the average teacher predictions were over half a grade higher in most subjects than what was achieved in the 2019 summer exams

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Lightning720
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(Original post by laurawatt)
They have to make sure that roughly the same proportion of students get the same grades as last year (and the years before) Plenty of students don't get their predicted grades each year, and the average teacher predictions were over half a grade higher in most subjects than what was achieved in the 2019 summer exams

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But at least in normal years, there is something you can actually compare between different students (exams).
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Lightning720
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I can see there being a big backlash in August when results come out. I hope Ofqual is prepared for that.
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Moonbow
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Aw man my English Lang was dreadful anyway as we only did the creative writing paper and didn’t even touch the one I’m actually good at 🤦*♀️ Our school didn’t even teach us the 2nd paper’s content. Wow. WOWWWWWWWW
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Lightning720
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(Original post by Cupcakehugs)
this is ****ing messed up
I hope things work out in August, but 40% is a massive proportion of grades. I can see a lot of people getting grades they don't deserve.
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Lightning720
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(Original post by Moonbow)
Aw man my English Lang was dreadful anyway as we only did the creative writing paper and didn’t even touch the one I’m actually good at 🤦*♀️ Our school didn’t even teach us the 2nd paper’s content. Wow. WOWWWWWWWW
I hope you get the grade you deserve
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Cupcakehugs
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(Original post by Lightning720)
I hope things work out in August, but 40% is a massive proportion of grades. I can see a lot of people getting grades they don't deserve.
yh ik hopefully
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1st superstar
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(Original post by Moonbow)
Aw man my English Lang was dreadful anyway as we only did the creative writing paper and didn’t even touch the one I’m actually good at 🤦*♀️ Our school didn’t even teach us the 2nd paper’s content. Wow. WOWWWWWWWW
Your school sounds bad...
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_gcx
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Not sure about GCSEs but for A-levels this would sound about right, considering that over half of UCAS predictions turn out to be incorrect. (of course - the predictions this time around will be far more finely tuned, but you see where I'm coming from)

What I don't like is that it's impossible to predict which students would have a bad day in the exam, and it's not exactly fair to mark down candidates on the basis that this would have happened to some people had the exams run. Doesn't exactly give them a fair chance.

The overall stats will still probably look reasonable and in line with other years. (just like IB has, despite the chaos surrounding individual performance)
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Moonbow
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(Original post by 1st superstar)
Your school sounds bad...
We didn’t do half the exams we were meant to 🙄 I agree, it’s truly awful!
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Lightning720
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(Original post by _gcx)

The overall stats will still probably look reasonable and in line with other years. (just like IB has, despite the chaos surrounding individual performance)
I think that is the key part. Overall, the results will look normal, but that won't help prevent unfair results on an individual level. The exam boards aren't going to care who they markdown. That's where the problems will arise.
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Moonbow
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(Original post by Lightning720)
I hope you get the grade you deserve
Aw thanks! I hope I can scrape a six to be fair, silly paper 😅😤
I hope you do too, whenever you might be sitting anything next xx
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Lightning720
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(Original post by Moonbow)
Aw thanks! I hope I can scrape a six to be fair, silly paper 😅😤
I hope you do too, whenever you might be sitting anything next xx
I'm waiting for A-level results. Thankfully, I picked universities with entry requirements that are lower than my UCAS prediction and Y13 mocks so I should get what I need (prediction and Y13 mocks = A*A*A* , need for uni = AAB).

There's always the Autumn exams if we don't get what we need... after 7 months without a teacher!
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_gcx
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(Original post by Lightning720)
I think that is the key part. Overall, the results will look normal, but that won't help prevent unfair results on an individual level. The exam boards aren't going to care who they markdown. That's where the problems will arise.
Did IB have rankings within each grade? It'd most likely be the ones that ranked relatively low within the grades that are marked down first. (but then you get obvious problems with very small or large cohort sizes) This is probably as fair as it can be.

Luckily - if this sort of thing were ever to happen again in the future, they'd be far better prepared. (more extensive data collected throughout the year and so on)
Last edited by _gcx; 1 month ago
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Lightning720
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(Original post by _gcx)
Did IB have rankings within each grade? It'd most likely be the ones that ranked relatively low within the grades that are marked down first. (but then you get obvious problems with very small or large cohort sizes)
I don't think IB had rankings. I do think the rankings might help prevent big grade decreases in large cohorts, but that obviously doesn't help the smaller cohorts.
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(Original post by Moonbow)
We didn’t do half the exams we were meant to 🙄 I agree, it’s truly awful!
Welp that sucks
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Moonbow
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(Original post by Lightning720)
I'm waiting for A-level results. Thankfully, I picked universities with entry requirements that are lower than my UCAS prediction and Y13 mocks so I should get what I need (prediction and Y13 mocks = A*A*A* , need for uni = AAB).

There's always the Autumn exams if we don't get what we need... after 7 months without a teacher!
Wow! Thats amazing! You’ll be fine I’m sure xx
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Lightning720
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(Original post by Moonbow)
Wow! Thats amazing! You’ll be fine I’m sure xx
Thank you! I'm sure everything will work out for you as well
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