Is Scottish independence more likely now and if so why?

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Iñigo de Loyola
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#41
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#41
(Original post by Quady)
I think quite a bit of the arguement is sovereignty/taking back control.

That was the reason I voted to leave two unions in the last decade.
In and of itself that's an argument, but Scotland would lose the funding it gets through the Barnett formula if it left. Between the lack of a stable currency or trade deals and the fact that the Scottish government would be running a massive deficit with no one to give them loans, it would essentially end up in the same state as a third world country if it broke off.
(Original post by Quady)
The state subsidises my parents with pensions, doesnt mean they would die if that stopped.

Ireland managed without their own currency for six years, for what 25 years without a central bank and kept a peg with stirling until 1999.

So that statement you made seems more from a position of assertion than one that is based in fact.
1) if Scotland broke away the Scottish government would be running on a deficit with no way to cut funds without annoying people, and no one that would lend them money.
2) yes, but the RoI had foreign currency reserves, unlike Scotland.
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Quady
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#42
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(Original post by paul514)
I totally get that, I just don’t see Scotland as a country, to me it’s just an area of the uk like Monmouth or Yorkshire.
Guess that's a matter of perspective. India was just part of the empire too, until you know, it wasn't.

I dont think either of those parts of the UK are subject to an Act of Parliament which is a bit different.

If you were to buy a house in Mononthshire then Yorkshire then Scotland then you would notice the last transaction is quite different as Scotland has a different legal system.

Take some money outta a cash point in Scotland and take it to Monmouthshire and you might well get some odd looks.

I've lived in Scotland for getting on seven years and I've still little idea what 'highers' are or why the schools go back in Early August.
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paul514
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#43
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(Original post by Quady)
Guess that's a matter of perspective. India was just part of the empire too, until you know, it wasn't.

I dont think either of those parts of the UK are subject to an Act of Parliament which is a bit different.

If you were to buy a house in Mononthshire then Yorkshire then Scotland then you would notice the last transaction is quite different as Scotland has a different legal system.

Take some money outta a cash point in Scotland and take it to Monmouthshire and you might well get some odd looks.

I've lived in Scotland for getting on seven years and I've still little idea what 'highers' are or why the schools go back in Early August.
Yep it’s perspective I don’t see myself as English but British.
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Quady
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#44
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(Original post by LiberOfLondon)
In and of itself that's an argument, but Scotland would lose the funding it gets through the Barnett formula if it left. Between the lack of a stable currency or trade deals and the fact that the Scottish government would be running a massive deficit with no one to give them loans, it would essentially end up in the same state as a third world country if it broke off.

1) if Scotland broke away the Scottish government would be running on a deficit with no way to cut funds without annoying people, and no one that would lend them money.
2) yes, but the RoI had foreign currency reserves, unlike Scotland.
Its hardly Scotlands fault that the original baseline to which the Barnet formula is applied and the formula itself is daft.

There is no reason Scotland couldn't run a balanced budget. That budget might be smaller, it might be bigger, but just because Scotland spends the block grant which it is given doesnt mean the country can't live within another financial envelope. Pretty sure it could manage to be a second world country like Croatia surely?

How come RoI had foreign currency reserves?
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Quady
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#45
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(Original post by paul514)
Yep it’s perspective I don’t see myself as English but British.
Not a Britisher then :P
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#46
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(Original post by Quady)
Its hardly Scotlands fault that the original baseline to which the Barnet formula is applied and the formula itself is daft.

There is no reason Scotland couldn't run a balanced budget. That budget might be smaller, it might be bigger, but just because Scotland spends the block grant which it is given doesnt mean the country can't live within another financial envelope. Pretty sure it could manage to be a second world country like Croatia surely?

How come RoI had foreign currency reserves?
Any country can run within its means but Scottish politics pretends it can leave with no debts, spend more than currently regardless of its deficit, join the EU despite already being multiple times higher than the deficit it allows and all whilst using a foreign currency they have no control over.

Pretty laughable.
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paul514
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#47
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(Original post by Quady)
Not a Britisher then :P
That’s me
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Iñigo de Loyola
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#48
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(Original post by paul514)
Any country can run within its means but Scottish politics pretends it can leave with no debts, spend more than currently regardless of its deficit, join the EU despite already being multiple times higher than the deficit it allows and all whilst using a foreign currency they have no control over.

Pretty laughable.
Not to mention that Spain wouldn't let a UDI Scotland in because of the precedent it would set.
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Napp
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(Original post by LiberOfLondon)
Not to mention that Spain wouldn't let a UDI Scotland in because of the precedent it would set.
Mmm depends on the sort of bribe they can extract from the commission i imagine :lol:
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Iñigo de Loyola
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(Original post by Napp)
Mmm depends on the sort of bribe they can extract from the commission i imagine :lol:
:rofl: in seriousness nobody in Madrid wants to give the Catalans any ideas.
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(Original post by LiberOfLondon)
:rofl: in seriousness nobody in Madrid wants to give the Catalans any ideas.
Or basques and they aren’t the only nation in Europe with that issue either.
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Iñigo de Loyola
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(Original post by paul514)
Or basques and they aren’t the only nation in Europe with that issue either.
France and Corsica is the only other thing that comes to mind.
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#53
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(Original post by LiberOfLondon)
France and Corsica is the only other thing that comes to mind.
Most aren’t well known but I’ve seen a list before of European nations with separatist movements it was quite substantial
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L i b
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#54
(Original post by mongee23)
Scotland have a right to self-determination if they want it. You deserve a right to your own country with your own people where you can decide your own future, if you believe that your current union is restricting your free will.
Not exactly a hill I would die on, but ultimately this isn't the case.

It's pretty well established what the "right to self-determination" in international law means. It does not give parts of sovereign states, however defined, to split off if they fancy. States have a right to their territorial integrity. If Scotland was to become independent, the only legitimate way it could do so is by consent.
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mongee23
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(Original post by L i b)
Not exactly a hill I would die on, but ultimately this isn't the case.

It's pretty well established what the "right to self-determination" in international law means. It does not give parts of sovereign states, however defined, to split off if they fancy. States have a right to their territorial integrity. If Scotland was to become independent, the only legitimate way it could do so is by consent.
I didn't mean it's actually your right, I meant as in I believe that should be the case. Obviously it isn't or the US Civil War and Catalonia situation would have turned out differently.
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Iñigo de Loyola
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#56
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(Original post by paul514)
Most aren’t well known but I’ve seen a list before of European nations with separatist movements it was quite substantial
A lot of those movements (eg Bavarian royalism and independence) are very small though. The only really big movements are in Spain (Basque Country and Catalonia), France (Brittany and Corsica), Belgium (Flanders) and maybe Italy (Sardinia).
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Quady
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#57
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(Original post by paul514)
Any country can run within its means but Scottish politics pretends it can leave with no debts, spend more than currently regardless of its deficit, join the EU despite already being multiple times higher than the deficit it allows and all whilst using a foreign currency they have no control over.

Pretty laughable.
Indeed thatd be a laughable set of positions to simultaneously take.

But thats the same as anything in politics, politicians lie in order to win votes.

Politicians opposing independence also lie, mostly by stating opinion as fact like EU membership. Sometimes not even being factually right - eg 'Scotland would not be allowed to use sterling' by George Osbourne.
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L i b
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(Original post by Quady)
Politicians opposing independence also lie, mostly by stating opinion as fact
A strange assertion really, given that every statement of "what is" is essentially a piece of opinion or individual interpretation. Sure, there's a pretty broad consensus around the sky being blue - but it doesn't mean it cannot somehow be challenged or contradicted. A hypothetical statement "if Scotland were independent..." or a future prediction "we will be bankrupt" is obviously removed from even a reflection of existing realities.

You mention EU membership. The position on EU membership was as much a consensus among anyone with a clue as the blue-sky analogy. You don't caveat every statement with 'but that's just my opinion' - and if you did, you'd probably have some sort of chronic anxiety.

But of course, that's just my opinion...
Last edited by L i b; 1 month ago
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Quady
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#59
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(Original post by L i b)
A strange assertion really, given that every statement of "what is" is essentially a piece of opinion or individual interpretation. Sure, there's a pretty broad consensus around the sky being blue - but it doesn't mean it cannot somehow be challenged or contradicted. A hypothetical statement "if Scotland were independent..." or a future prediction "we will be bankrupt" is obviously removed from even a reflection of existing realities.

You mention EU membership. The position on EU membership was as much a consensus among anyone with a clue as the blue-sky analogy. You don't caveat every statement with 'but that's just my opinion' - and if you did, you'd probably have some sort of chronic anxiety.

But of course, that's just my opinion...
Completely agree. Merely pointing out the world is more of a grey zone than many of the arguments. Which I guess is why it was 55/45. A very polarising debate is far less binary than either side projects.

On the Scotlands acceptance to the EU it was opinion on both sides, with both stating their opinion as fact.

That does remind me this works the other way round too, opinions taken as fact or promises.
The 'once in a generation' statement by Salmond on the Andrew Marr show often loses the caveating The Telegraph reported at the time.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...-Scotland.html
"In my opinion, and it is just my opinion, this is a once in a generation opportunity for Scotland."

Asked if he could pledge not to bring back another referendum if the Yes campaign does not win on Thursday, he said: "That's my view. My view is this is a once in a generation, perhaps even a once in a lifetime, opportunity for Scotland."
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Iñigo de Loyola
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#60
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(Original post by Quady)
Indeed thatd be a laughable set of positions to simultaneously take.

But thats the same as anything in politics, politicians lie in order to win votes.

Politicians opposing independence also lie, mostly by stating opinion as fact like EU membership. Sometimes not even being factually right - eg 'Scotland would not be allowed to use sterling' by George Osbourne.
Scotland could use sterling - it would just find it very hard to do so.
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