Claims teacher given grades to be ignored in most cases

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Evil Homer
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It was revealed last night that teacher assessed grades have not been used to calculate the "vast majority" of GCSE and A-level exam results.

The TES revealed today that in large-entry subjects (where a subject has more than 15 entries in any given school) teachers' grades given to their students will not be used as part of the final calculation that determine results.

Instead, in these cases, grades will be determined on a statistical model of students prior attainment combined with data on the schools historic performance. It's important to note that teachers do still have a big role to play, with this model then being applied to the rank order that teachers would have provided the exam boards.

It's believed that this will affect the "vast majority" or GCSE results and around 60% of A-level grades as well. This is obviously far more likely to impact popular A-level choices more than some of the more fringe choices.

Last night, an Ofqual spokesperson said:

"We know teachers worked extremely hard to deliver this year’s arrangements and final grades this summer will be calculated using both centre assessment grades and a rank order of students provided by the centre.
“Centre Assessment Grades are an important component of this year’s arrangements and have assisted centres when developing their rank orders.
"They have been instrumental during testing to identify the fairest process, and are being used to quality assure the outputs. Centre assessment grades are the primary source of evidence to calculate grades for low entry subjects, small centres and those lacking historical data.
“From the data that we have reviewed, we expect the majority of grades students receive will be the same as their centre assessment grades, reflecting the skills, professionalism and integrity of those involved.
“As we have said previously, we do not intend to publish the precise detail of the statistical model until results day as early publication of this information could also lead to some students unfairly finding out their results early, or cause unhelpful anxiety if they are incorrectly calculated.”


Full article here

Ofqual have released a statement since that can be seen here
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theJoyfulGeek
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(Original post by Evil Homer)
It was revealed last night that teacher assessed grades have not been used to calculate the "vast majority" of GCSE and A-level exam results.

The TES revealed today that in large-entry subjects (where a subject has more than 15 entries in any given school) teachers' grades given to their students will not be used as part of the final calculation that determine results.

Instead, in these cases, grades will be determined on a statistical model of students prior attainment combined with data on the schools historic performance. It's important to note that teachers do still have a big role to play, with this model then being applied to the rank order that teachers would have provided the exam boards.

It's believed that this will affect the "vast majority" or GCSE results and around 60% of A-level grades as well. This is obviously far more likely to impact popular A-level choices more than some of the more fringe choices.

Last night, an Ofqual spokesperson said:

"We know teachers worked extremely hard to deliver this year’s arrangements and final grades this summer will be calculated using both centre assessment grades and a rank order of students provided by the centre.
“Centre Assessment Grades are an important component of this year’s arrangements and have assisted centres when developing their rank orders.
"They have been instrumental during testing to identify the fairest process, and are being used to quality assure the outputs. Centre assessment grades are the primary source of evidence to calculate grades for low entry subjects, small centres and those lacking historical data.
“From the data that we have reviewed, we expect the majority of grades students receive will be the same as their centre assessment grades, reflecting the skills, professionalism and integrity of those involved.
“As we have said previously, we do not intend to publish the precise detail of the statistical model until results day as early publication of this information could also lead to some students unfairly finding out their results early, or cause unhelpful anxiety if they are incorrectly calculated.”


Full article here
Well... I don't really see why this is a problem?

Teachers at some schools have inflated the grades to a ridiculous extent, meaning that they're completely unreliable. Most people don't want to admit it, but if you've been scoring 4s all year, it's highly unlikely that you'll get a 9 in your GCSE (yes, I know that there are exceptions, but it's a very small minority).

Additionally, many teachers do not want to be responsible for preventing students from accessing further education - understandably.

The rank order is the most important part, and results will be based on that; they're not completely random! This year's cohort is very similar to last year's cohort (and every other cohort), so it's fair that the grade distribution will be similar.

What does everyone else think?
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学生の父
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I have mixed feelings about this, to be honest. We had been told since April that the Centre Assessed Grades were crucial, and that the rank orders would be used for borderline candidates.

Since then, however, Ofqual (as well as Qualifications Wales and Northern Ireland's CCEA) have been presenting us with different analogies. Notably, they have been explaining how standardisation will map the exam board determined grade distribution by level/subject/centre onto the provided rank order.
Infographics in the past week have even shown a bucket of available grades which is given to the candidates for a level/subject/centre until it is exhausted.

So, yes, it would be no surprise to me if the spin in the TES article is more or less accurate. If the exam board has a bag of grades to hand out to a school for its candidates in level and subject such and such, how can it be any different to chucking the CAGs away and relying on rankings alone?

The unnamed exam board has been overly candid by stating that cohorts ≤ 5 entries will be given unstandardised CAGs, as will new centres. They have also defined the upper limit of "small" cohorts as 15. One can but assume that Ofqual's taper will only apply for cohorts with 6 to 15 candidates?

This afternoon's Ofqual press release doesn't exactly deny what the loose-tongued exam board rep told TES. We know they are grateful for the work of teachers --- aren't we all? --- and that "results for students will almost always be broadly in line with centres’ and teachers’ expectations" [my emphasis].
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gtty123
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Being completely honest, I anticipated something like this was going to happen. It doesn't seem unlikely anymore. At the beginning, I was optimistic. Now, I'm just waiting to see what happens. I wouldn't be surprised if something else were to happen (even if there are 6 days left).
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builderxyz
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To be fair, I feel really bad for anyone getting their GCSE results this year, like last year I had targets of 4s and 5s (my teachers didn't think I was able to go much higher than my targets either) and then later at results day last year I managed to achieve 9999987776 at GCSE's 🤷
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najmed
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I feel for GCSE students because I was getting 5s and 6s in February and ended up with 999888876 in those same subjects. If I was in their position I would have only gotten 5s and 6s in August and believed that was my full potential
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royalty1702
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Yeah true but A levels matter a lot as university places are on the line
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riannon2001
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I can't really explain how I feel about this (Year 13 here, predicted grades were 3 A*s - now really not confident at all that I'll get anywhere near that). At the start of lockdown I was pretty optimistic and I still fully sympathise with the position Ofqual are in, but at the same time I can't shake the dread that I'm going to open that envelope to grades that are way lower than I deserve. I'm not saying I deserved 3 A*s - I wasn't confident in the run-up to exams at all. I'm fortunate in that none of my subjects have a cohort of 15 or more, but prior school performance is a bit patchy in some areas and I need A*AA. I just feel awful for all of us. There's going to be absolute fury if Ofqual's statistical model (published on Results Day) doesn't stack up to scrutiny.
Good luck everyone, and if you don't get what you need/want, remember it's not necessarily you, and these results don't represent a ceiling to your potential.
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royalty1702
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Just gotta hope for a solid ranking. I guess its harder to predict your ranking if your cohort is large
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ybr20
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(Original post by Evil Homer)
It was revealed last night that teacher assessed grades have not been used to calculate the "vast majority" of GCSE and A-level exam results.

The TES revealed today that in large-entry subjects (where a subject has more than 15 entries in any given school) teachers' grades given to their students will not be used as part of the final calculation that determine results.

Instead, in these cases, grades will be determined on a statistical model of students prior attainment combined with data on the schools historic performance. It's important to note that teachers do still have a big role to play, with this model then being applied to the rank order that teachers would have provided the exam boards.

It's believed that this will affect the "vast majority" or GCSE results and around 60% of A-level grades as well. This is obviously far more likely to impact popular A-level choices more than some of the more fringe choices.

Last night, an Ofqual spokesperson said:

"We know teachers worked extremely hard to deliver this year’s arrangements and final grades this summer will be calculated using both centre assessment grades and a rank order of students provided by the centre.
“Centre Assessment Grades are an important component of this year’s arrangements and have assisted centres when developing their rank orders.
"They have been instrumental during testing to identify the fairest process, and are being used to quality assure the outputs. Centre assessment grades are the primary source of evidence to calculate grades for low entry subjects, small centres and those lacking historical data.
“From the data that we have reviewed, we expect the majority of grades students receive will be the same as their centre assessment grades, reflecting the skills, professionalism and integrity of those involved.
“As we have said previously, we do not intend to publish the precise detail of the statistical model until results day as early publication of this information could also lead to some students unfairly finding out their results early, or cause unhelpful anxiety if they are incorrectly calculated.”


Full article here

Ofqual have released a statement since that can be seen here
By students prior results, do you mean the cohorts SATs/GCSEs or the individuals SATs/GCSEs?
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bored_user:)
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(Original post by Evil Homer)
It was revealed last night that teacher assessed grades have not been used to calculate the "vast majority" of GCSE and A-level exam results.

The TES revealed today that in large-entry subjects (where a subject has more than 15 entries in any given school) teachers' grades given to their students will not be used as part of the final calculation that determine results.

Instead, in these cases, grades will be determined on a statistical model of students prior attainment combined with data on the schools historic performance. It's important to note that teachers do still have a big role to play, with this model then being applied to the rank order that teachers would have provided the exam boards.

It's believed that this will affect the "vast majority" or GCSE results and around 60% of A-level grades as well. This is obviously far more likely to impact popular A-level choices more than some of the more fringe choices.

Last night, an Ofqual spokesperson said:

"We know teachers worked extremely hard to deliver this year’s arrangements and final grades this summer will be calculated using both centre assessment grades and a rank order of students provided by the centre.
“Centre Assessment Grades are an important component of this year’s arrangements and have assisted centres when developing their rank orders.
"They have been instrumental during testing to identify the fairest process, and are being used to quality assure the outputs. Centre assessment grades are the primary source of evidence to calculate grades for low entry subjects, small centres and those lacking historical data.
“From the data that we have reviewed, we expect the majority of grades students receive will be the same as their centre assessment grades, reflecting the skills, professionalism and integrity of those involved.
“As we have said previously, we do not intend to publish the precise detail of the statistical model until results day as early publication of this information could also lead to some students unfairly finding out their results early, or cause unhelpful anxiety if they are incorrectly calculated.”


Full article here

Ofqual have released a statement since that can be seen here
So they have given us a number... 15

So students in a cohort with less than 15 people. Will their grades change much?
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riannon2001
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(Original post by bored_user:))
So they have given us a number... 15

So students in a cohort with less than 15 people. Will their grades change much?
It looks like for a cohort of less than 15 the CAGs will be taken into account, but they won't be the most important part of the process, and for a cohort of 5 or less they will be the major factor. At least that's what I get from it!
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bored_user:)
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(Original post by riannon2001)
It looks like for a cohort of less than 15 the CAGs will be taken into account, but they won't be the most important part of the process, and for a cohort of 5 or less they will be the major factor. At least that's what I get from it!
yeah all of my A levels have a cohort of less than 5 lol
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riannon2001
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(Original post by bored_user:))
yeah all of my A levels have a cohort of less than 5 lol
You lucky thing all of mine are less than 15 and one is 5
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bored_user:)
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(Original post by riannon2001)
You lucky thing all of mine are less than 15 and one is 5
so does that mean that my CAGs may not be lowered at all?
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riannon2001
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(Original post by bored_user:))
so does that mean that my CAGs may not be lowered at all?
I think it means that because the cohort is so small, they won't have enough data to use for their statistical modelling, so CAGs will have to be the dominant factor. So basically, I think there's a strong chance they won't be lowered, but don't quote me on that
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2500_2
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(Original post by bored_user:))
so does that mean that my CAGs may not be lowered at all?
It's a likely assumption - certainly that's what happened with the Scottish results.
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2500_2
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(Original post by Evil Homer)
It was revealed last night that teacher assessed grades have not been used to calculate the "vast majority" of GCSE and A-level exam results.

The TES revealed today that in large-entry subjects (where a subject has more than 15 entries in any given school) teachers' grades given to their students will not be used as part of the final calculation that determine results.

Instead, in these cases, grades will be determined on a statistical model of students prior attainment combined with data on the schools historic performance. It's important to note that teachers do still have a big role to play, with this model then being applied to the rank order that teachers would have provided the exam boards.

It's believed that this will affect the "vast majority" or GCSE results and around 60% of A-level grades as well. This is obviously far more likely to impact popular A-level choices more than some of the more fringe choices.

Last night, an Ofqual spokesperson said:

"We know teachers worked extremely hard to deliver this year’s arrangements and final grades this summer will be calculated using both centre assessment grades and a rank order of students provided by the centre.
“Centre Assessment Grades are an important component of this year’s arrangements and have assisted centres when developing their rank orders.
"They have been instrumental during testing to identify the fairest process, and are being used to quality assure the outputs. Centre assessment grades are the primary source of evidence to calculate grades for low entry subjects, small centres and those lacking historical data.
“From the data that we have reviewed, we expect the majority of grades students receive will be the same as their centre assessment grades, reflecting the skills, professionalism and integrity of those involved.
“As we have said previously, we do not intend to publish the precise detail of the statistical model until results day as early publication of this information could also lead to some students unfairly finding out their results early, or cause unhelpful anxiety if they are incorrectly calculated.”


Full article here

Ofqual have released a statement since that can be seen here
The summer symposium doc a couple of weeks ago from Ofqual pretty much told us this already. All TES have done is managed to get someone to say it more starkly.
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bored_user:)
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(Original post by riannon2001)
I think it means that because the cohort is so small, they won't have enough data to use for their statistical modelling, so CAGs will have to be the dominant factor. So basically, I think there's a strong chance they won't be lowered, but don't quote me on that
(Original post by 2500_2)
It's a likely assumption - certainly that's what happened with the Scottish results.
ahh I see... and what if the centre overpredicts one students? Will the others be affected too when exam boards lower their grades?
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2500_2
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(Original post by bored_user:))
ahh I see... and what if the centre overpredicts one students? Will the others be affected too when exam boards lower their grades?
The point is Ofqual have no way of checking if one (or more) student in a small cohort has been over(or under)predicted. So their likely only option is to accept the prediction.
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