If SNP win in 2021 - will Boris allow a second independence vote

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username5378306
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What do you think?
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Tracey_W
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(Original post by eaAdams)
What do you think?
If Nicola sturgeon get her bill through Parliament for her second independence vote then we will see after the scottish elections next May if she ask Boris again for the ballet to go ahead or not.

Yes I think he should grant it and see what happens with it although the polls suggest so far that about 75% want it but is polls accurate.

Boris & his government so far been determined not to give the people of Scotland this opportunity but only way to settle things would be Boris to give the SNP the mandate to hold the independence vote again and see what happens but Boris need to make it clear that if its another NO vote then no more votes on this untill xx years .
I think Boris will be scared that it be a YES vote this time around and the way things has been going with his own government u-turns recently they are apparently now behind in polls with labour if another general election was called now they would lose it .
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barnetlad
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No I don't think he will agree to one. Whilst he sold the Ulster unionist cause down the river in desperation to get the withdrawal from the political institutions of the EU, it is the Conservative and Unionist party after all. A reasonably strong SNP in Scotland is at the expense of the Labour Party as well, which in 2024 becomes a stick to beat Labour with if the loss of a Tory majority could only mean a Labour government propped up by the SNP, as it were.

I would hope that by May 2021 he is not in the position to offer one, as by then he is not Prime Minister. Though sadly there are enough deluded Tory MPs not prepared to ensure he goes by then.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by eaAdams)
What do you think?
If the SNP win a parliamentary majority and a popular one (50%+) then i don't believe that he can deny the expressed will of the Scottish people having voted for a party which is expressly committed to holding a referendum.

The question afterward however will be on what terms and what timing and that's where i think Boris holds some cards because if he has half a brain he will not grant the referendum until after the (probably May) 2024 elections (next Scottish election is not until 2026 so there's still a window). That not only annoys Sturgeon because at 10 years in power she'll be long in the tooth but it will make Covid and Brexit less prominent (especially if the world does not cave in) and also gives the Tories a stick to beat Labour with in England (vote Labour, get the union wrecking SNP).
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Gundabad(good)
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(Original post by eaAdams)
What do you think?
BoJo will resist as long as he can.
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barnetlad
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(Original post by Rakas21)
If the SNP win a parliamentary majority and a popular one (50%+) then i don't believe that he can deny the expressed will of the Scottish people having voted for a party which is expressly committed to holding a referendum.

The question afterward however will be on what terms and what timing and that's where i think Boris holds some cards because if he has half a brain he will not grant the referendum until after the (probably May) 2024 elections (next Scottish election is not until 2026 so there's still a window). That not only annoys Sturgeon because at 10 years in power she'll be long in the tooth but it will make Covid and Brexit less prominent (especially if the world does not cave in) and also gives the Tories a stick to beat Labour with in England (vote Labour, get the union wrecking SNP).
Stopping the will of the people when it suits him is something Mr Johnson would easily do. Stopping debate is something he does frequently. Stopping or avoiding scrutiny is something he does continually.

It will be a simple no, and he will attempt to shut down debate. The SNP are unlikely to get 50% of the vote in the 2021 Scottish elections though may come close.
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L i b
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As it goes, saying no to a second independence referendum is a manifesto commitment. To u-turn on that would not only be dishonest, it would likely tear the Conservative Party in Scotland apart for no apparent benefit.

I suppose the best half-argument that could be made is that it might be easier to win a second referendum now than at some future date, potentially under a Labour Government. I'm not sure that argument holds water, since I have never believed for a second that the Scottish nationalists losing another referendum will magically make them go away. There was an assumption that would happen before the first - to assume it a second time smacks to me of stupidity. It'll just mean in another 5-10 years time we're potentially looking at a third independence referendum.

Yes, the Scottish nationalists aren't going to like it. But they're not exactly a co-operative, friendly bunch at the best of times. In Scottish politics there has been a peculiar idea that doing exactly what the SNP want will somehow make them more content or less popular. I think that has been tested to destruction.
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Quady
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(Original post by eaAdams)
What do you think?
Depends on the size of the win.

Should Scotland only vote vote for SNP/Leave candidates then I suspect he wouldn't have much choice. Well either give a referendum or do a Churchill...
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Quady
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(Original post by L i b)
Yes, the Scottish nationalists aren't going to like it. But they're not exactly a co-operative, friendly bunch at the best of times. In Scottish politics there has been a peculiar idea that doing exactly what the SNP want will somehow make them more content or less popular. I think that has been tested to destruction.
Indeed it seems the more power they get the more nationalists there are. Almost like unionists change their mind.

Seems the second leave party isn't going to be a thing. That'd've been interesting.
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Quady
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(Original post by barnetlad)
The SNP are unlikely to get 50% of the vote in the 2021 Scottish elections though may come close.
Recent polling suggests otherwise.

Unless the new Labour leader is Sean Connery or Bob Servant they will surely struggle further...

Perhaps Brexit will go well that Ross will pick up votes Davidson couldn't...

Next years budget (income tax) will be interesting.
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JohnnyHK
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But what about the referendum held in 2014? Did that not count?
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Napp
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(Original post by JohnnyHK)
But what about the referendum held in 2014? Did that not count? [/quote]
The argument goes that there has been a fundamental change in the state of affairs since then, they're not wrong. Equally, whether people like it or not, if the SNP get elected with a majority that is de facto a mandate for independence, given thats the raison detre for the party.
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Renner
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No. There is no obligation to give one
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