Can information about China's Covid-19 data be trusted?

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04MR17
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This thread is to discuss whether China's figures in respect of covid-19 deaths and cases are able to be trusted. And more broadly, whether China has done well in eliminating the pandemic.

Some of the posts in this thread have been moved from another thread so as not to derail that one.
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Mojmeer
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(Original post by bubblesrain)
You do know that China now has a low rate of 19-30 cases per day? I don't understand why the fact that he is Chinese and it originated there is relevant. In the UK we now have a lot more cases. Yes you can ask him to quarantine, it is your choice.
Trusting the numbers from China ins't qualitatively any different from trusting numbers from the North Korea or Russia. They can easily have several millions of dead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2H8a5inhYWg
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bubblesrain
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(Original post by Mojmeer)
Trusting numbers from from china inst qualitatively any different from trusting numbers from the north Korea or Russia. They can easily have several millions of dead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2H8a5inhYWg
Trusting numbers from any country isn't easy. As for the 'millions dead', you think the USA isn't doing the same to their citizens, with the abnormally high healthcare costs, a flawed democracy and police brutality? Every government is flawed and although I do not support the CCP at all, it's very clear that China does not have many cases anymore. They completely locked down which meant that the spread of coronavirus heavily decreased. They used masks from start and have rigorous testing nationwide. For example, in Wuhan they had a mass testing programme, where 9 million or more were tested, and 97% did not test positive. (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-52651651). Subsequently do not generalise a population by its government - China's coronavirus cases are definitely down.
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Mojmeer
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(Original post by bubblesrain)
Trusting numbers from any country isn't easy. As for the 'millions dead', you think the USA isn't doing the same to their citizens, with the abnormally high healthcare costs, a flawed democracy and police brutality? Every government is flawed and although I do not support the CCP at all, it's very clear that China does not have many cases anymore. They completely locked down which meant that the spread of coronavirus heavily decreased. They used masks from start and have rigorous testing nationwide. For example, in Wuhan they had a mass testing programme, where 9 million or more were tested, and 97% did not test positive. (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-52651651). Subsequently do not generalise a population by its government - China's coronavirus cases are definitely down.
CCP is a murderous and totalitarian regime that has no problem to kill their own people by millions with a dictator for life. No election, insane censorhip, no concept of free speech or human rights at all. Healthcare is paid for, you don't, you die. Again, no difference between data from Wuhan or North Korea. North Korea has zero dead. I guess that they are doing even better.
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Mojmeer
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(Original post by bubblesrain)
It's fair enough that you want them to quarantine. I am Chinese lol and have Chinese relatives; I think I know the situation better than you. I understand that you would like them to quarantine - I think that's perfectly sensible. I do not understand how them being from China where it orginated relates in anyway.
You have untampered and access to relevant datasets from China?
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bingbong9214
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(Original post by ecolier)
Indeed, the student from China probably feels less safe in the UK :lol:
You do realise that China lied about their covid cases....😂
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ecolier
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(Original post by bingbong9214)
You do realise that China lied about their covid cases....😂
You do realise that everyone religiously wears a mask in East Asia, with health / COVID-19 probably being on the news all the time?

There is also none of these "anti-mask" protests anywhere over there (and I include the entirety of East Asia, not just China).

In addition, there is very effective track and trace systems there, with apps locating every case and links to who has come into contact with them. Yes - information is cheap over there but the government knows exactly who has it and who has come into contact with who. Everyone obeys the rules.

So yes, they will definitely feel a lot safer back home than here. Not arguing about cases because that's just off-topic.
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EDUCATEDER
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(Original post by DiddyDec)
China is a massive country that did a pretty good job of containing the spread. I would be more concerned about someone coming from a European country.

You took the risk when you moved into shared accommodation.
I hate to tell you that China lies, its a oppressive regime and is controlled and censored to their views, so when they say covid cases are decreasing take it with a pinch of salt
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DiddyDec
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(Original post by EDUCATEDER)
I hate to tell you that China lies, its a oppressive regime and is controlled and censored to their views, so when they say covid cases are decreasing take it with a pinch of salt
I am well aware but the fact remains that their incredibly unethical method of containing the virus seems to have worked.
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bingbong9214
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(Original post by DiddyDec)
I am well aware but the fact remains that their incredibly unethical method of containing the virus seems to have worked.
*seemed* to have worke, hydroxochroliqine seems to have worked too but we know what really happened. The But its not factually correct. You cant make conclusions, from data that has been proven to be wrong
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7xm2
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(Original post by bubblesrain)
You do know that China now has a low rate of 19-30 cases per day? I don't understand why the fact that he is Chinese and it originated there is relevant. In the UK we now have a lot more cases. Yes you can ask him to quarantine, it is your choice.
I don't trust communist governments for me idk how many cases China has but its defo not the ones they publish...
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Mojmeer
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(Original post by MagneticNorth)
You seem to still be basing your argument on old news from back in January.
Whilst the virus may have started in China, the numbers of cases and deaths in it has stabilised in it since a while ago, whilst it has gone up increasingly in countries like the UK.
Attachment 950928

So if I were you, I'd be a lot wary of sharing a house with a brit than with a chinese, seeing how the situation is in both countries at the current time.
Love the Chinese "curve" definitely not an up arbitrary straight line made up by a CCP party official
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MagneticNorth
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(Original post by Mojmeer)
Love the Chinese "curve" definitely not an up arbitrary straight line made up by a CCP party official
A picture of a pool party in Wuhan (where the virus originated) went viral a couple of weeks ago.
Name:  wuhan.jpg
Views: 9
Size:  176.6 KB
Multiple other pictures have emerged from China showing life going back to normal - many of them taken by foreign/western reporters.

Shows that China has controlled the virus situation so well that people are comfortable going back to normal now and getting close...etc. So it's not just stats.
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galai
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Are you aware China has been managing the this pandemic better than the west and they have very little cases in comparison to the UK and US, if anything the Chinese student should be scared of you transmitting the virus onto them.
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Mojmeer
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(Original post by galai)
Are you aware China has been managing the this pandemic better than the west and they have very little cases in comparison to the UK and US, if anything the Chinese student should be scared of you transmitting the virus onto them.
Love your naivety
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bingbong9214
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(Original post by galai)
Are you aware China has been managing the this pandemic better than the west and they have very little cases in comparison to the UK and US, if anything the Chinese student should be scared of you transmitting the virus onto them.
Again, you aren't reading about the full concept. Any international student will be a risk due to the numerous contact points with covid 19 when compared to domestic travelling.
Are you aware that China have bene proven to falsify their data, so it is not an accurate representation, that is just a fact. A country with such a high population is very likely to suffer much drastically and more likely to have people who have coronavirus
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fallen_acorns
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(Original post by bingbong9214)
it is very likely they are suffering very badly.
Is it?

I mean.. they are hiding it really well if that's true.

I have family members and friends in around 20 Chinese cities who are all living happily and enjoying life right now.. Heck, I'm here, and I can go out and see what's going on. none of them know of any new cases or people to have even a friend of a friend of a friend who has had the virus in the last few months..

Compare that to the actual outbreak in China where we all knew people who had the virus, flat blocks in our area were closed off, loads of people were struggling, my friends who work in hospitals were reporting all sorts of problems and overcrowding.

But today? nothing...

This is the problem with these conspiracy theories - they work very well when your sat in a room in the UK and you have no connection to China. In those circumstances you can easily imagine that what's going on over there is so different to what you read on the news... but all you need to do is speak to people who are here in China, and you can find out the reality very quickly. The goverment here can't hide a pandemic, it simply isn't possible to hide an outbreak from the public, considering the public are the ones who come down with the virus. The idea that post-recovery, china is still struggling, is just a conspiracy. The reality is that its had isolated outbreaks that have been dealt with via the same strict measures that worked during the full outbreak back in feb/march.
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fallen_acorns
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Not to mention.. do you know how many foreigners work in China? Do you think all of them would be being silent if they were still living in the midst of a pandemic with people around them getting sick, hospitals overrun, buildings closed etc...

Would none of these people blow the story? Would they not all be taking the next flight out? (rather than the truth, which is all of the foreign workers are desperatly trying to return to China).

Conspiracy theories are great when your sat in a room half the world away with no contact to the situation - then you can imagine anything you like, and who knows.. it could be true! I mean you certainly don't know..
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fallen_acorns
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(Original post by Mojmeer)
Love the Chinese "curve" definitely not an up arbitrary straight line made up by a CCP party official
I hope your well aware that 'curves' are more dependent on testing capacity than numbers of those infected. That's why they are never true reflections, early on in the outbreak all countries struggled to test at the rate required, and its acknowledged that all countries vastly under-reported. You can x10 to any number given by a country back in spring, and you'd be closer to the truth. China is no exception, their numbers were way lower than the truth.. but as were ours and all of Europe. The numbers coming out currently across the world are much more reflective of reality, hence the much lower fatality rate when cases are compared to deaths.

No one would claim that the numbers are fully reflective of the scale, but instead they are better used as an estimation of trajectory.
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fallen_acorns
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to shorten my three posts that were moved:

- China isn't hiding a mass outbreak. This would be entirely impossible to do.
- China's numbers in the spring were about as reliable as most nations.. e.g. not that reliable
- China's numbers, as with most countries do map the tradgectory quite well though
- Its highly likely there were many times more cases than were reported at the height of the outbreak (again, like most countries)
- Today, China is virtually virus free, except for occasional localised lockdowns when new outbreaks arrive from abroad
- People here are getting on with life, and life is back to normal, near identical to how it was before, just with a few more masks around
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