To what extent do predicted grades affect your UCAS application?

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username3508910
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Do unis reject you if your predicted grade is lower than what they want, or are they lenient?
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PQ
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It depends.

The vast majority of courses won’t look at or care about predicted grades. They’re known to be inaccurate and unreliable and so universities don’t put much weight on them.

A small number of courses that are heavily over subscribed and without things like interviews or entrance exams to use to filter will use predicted grades to filter down applications.
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Admit-One
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It depends on the Uni and perhaps also on the course, there’s no single approach to assessing applications.

The Uni where I work uses predictions fairly extensively, so broadly speaking you would need to be predicted within one grade of the typical offer to be considered. But everywhere is different.
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McGinger
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Most 'top' Unis will either only accept predictions that match/exceed their requirements, or for some courses that are 'hard to fill' they may consider you with 'one grade below'. However, your lower grades will make your overall application score lower and therefore you will not be priority for an offer.

Other Universities may be more lenient, but usually only a few grades, so its not a great idea to apply for a ABB course with CCC predictions. As above, their priority will be those with the right grades. Whenever you apply with 'grades below' its a risk - you could get a straight rejection.

Remember - any offer will be for the required grades, not your predicted grades. If you know already that you are unlikely to get those grades in August even with hard work, its clearly a risky choice.

The usual advice for your 5 choices is :
* 1 choice just above your predicted grades (and not in a required subject) - risky, but worth a shot
* 3 at your predicted grades - you will probably get an offer for these
* 1 lower than your predicted grades - this is your potential Insurance choice
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PQ
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(Original post by McGinger)
Most 'top' Unis will either only accept predictions that match/exceed their requirements, or for some courses that are 'hard to fill' they may consider you with 'one grade below'. However, your lower grades will make your overall application score lower and therefore you will not be priority for an offer.

Other Universities may be more lenient, but usually only a few grades, so its not a great idea to apply for a ABB course with CCC predictions. As above, their priority will be those with the right grades. Whenever you apply with 'grades below' its a risk - you could get a straight rejection.

Remember - any offer will be for the required grades, not your predicted grades. If you know already that you are unlikely to get those grades in August even with hard work, its clearly a risky choice.

The usual advice for your 5 choices is :
* 1 choice just above your predicted grades (and not in a required subject) - risky, but worth a shot
* 3 at your predicted grades - you will probably get an offer for these
* 1 lower than your predicted grades - this is your potential Insurance choice
Even “top” universities rarely filter on predicted grades. They’re as aware as the rest of the sector how unreliable they are. That’s why the most selective courses have more reliable information to filter on (LNAT, UCAT, interviews, portfolios etc).

There’s very few courses in the UK that don’t offer to 80% or more applications (even most of the courses at Russell group universities offer to over 80% of applications) and a vanishingly tiny number that are selecting based on predicted grades.
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PQ
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(Original post by Admit-One)
It depends on the Uni and perhaps also on the course, there’s no single approach to assessing applications.

The Uni where I work uses predictions fairly extensively, so broadly speaking you would need to be predicted within one grade of the typical offer to be considered. But everywhere is different.
How do you justify that in your access and participation plan and equalities policies?

There’s plenty of evidence that predictions are more unreliable for certain disadvantaged groups. Using them extensively in selection is likely to be discriminating against applicants from disadvantaged groups.
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Admit-One
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(Original post by PQ)
How do you justify that in your access and participation plan and equalities policies?
The short answer is that I don’t, as I’m too far down the pecking order to have any input in them. We do make contextual offers, (flawed in their own way), and do a huge amount of activity related to widening participation. The system is fair insomuch as everyone is dealt with in the same way, with allowances for those whose might be considered disadvantaged.
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