How do you think Brexit is going?

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nexttime
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Difficult to separate some issues from covid of course. My thoughts:

Negatives:
- The border process seems like an absolute nightmare. We were already known for our insane bureaucracy in Europe even before Brexit, and now we seem to have turned it up to 1 million. Like, would getting rid of VAT be an option? Put it into income tax instead? And currently due to covid, cross-border traffic is lower than usual I believe - what will it be like when things are back to normal?
- The above is supposedly leading to lots of wasted stock, either because it can't be sold or because if someone in the EU tries to return an item its so costly some companies are asking for the item to be disposed of instead.

Positives:
- Border issues not completely catastrophic, I guess? Like we were worried about food supplies etc, which seems to be fine? (although it was mainly in a no deal scenario that this was the concern)
- Covid vaccine. The EU seems to be really dropping the ball on this. Not even approved the Oxford vaccine yet, facing big delays and tiny vaccine volumes being delivered. In comparison, the UK is absolutely knocking it out the park. Mainly thanks to our biotech industry and Oxford University of course, but also due to rapid (albeit chaotic) action by the government.
Is this an example of the increased adaptability that will let our economy thrive in loads of future international deals? Or is it a one off **** up by the EU?

What do you think???
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DiddyDec
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It is the massive **** up most people expected it to be.
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username1799249
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(Original post by nexttime)
Difficult to separate some issues from covid of course. My thoughts:

Negatives:
- The border process seems like an absolute nightmare. We were already known for our insane bureaucracy in Europe even before Brexit, and now we seem to have turned it up to 1 million. Like, would getting rid of VAT be an option? Put it into income tax instead? And currently due to covid, cross-border traffic is lower than usual I believe - what will it be like when things are back to normal?
- The above is supposedly leading to lots of wasted stock, either because it can't be sold or because if someone in the EU tries to return an item its so costly some companies are asking for the item to be disposed of instead.

Positives:
- Border issues not completely catastrophic, I guess? Like we were worried about food supplies etc, which seems to be fine? (although it was mainly in a no deal scenario that this was the concern)
- Covid vaccine. The EU seems to be really dropping the ball on this. Not even approved the Oxford vaccine yet, facing big delays and tiny vaccine volumes being delivered. In comparison, the UK is absolutely knocking it out the park. Mainly thanks to our biotech industry and Oxford University of course, but also due to rapid (albeit chaotic) action by the government.
Is this an example of the increased adaptability that will let our economy thrive in loads of future international deals? Or is it a one off **** up by the EU?

What do you think???
Can we really call the fact that it wasn't a complete and utter disaster a positive?

As for covid. Health is not under the remit of the EU. It is down to individual states. So to blame the lack of vaccine roll out on the EU is misguided. But that said, there is more to it that taking a simple view. I note for example, that French citizens are very wary of vaccines for reasons I don't fully understand.
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Pythian
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The European economies are destined to fall while India, China, Japan and Indonesia GDP will overtake the UK. I imagine Brexit has a fairly trivial effect in the long-run.

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Starship Trooper
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As well as can be expected with this lot in power but better than anything currently on offer for the time being
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nexttime
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(Original post by ByEeek)
Can we really call the fact that it wasn't a complete and utter disaster a positive?
Probably not! But like I say, a lot o people were worried about complete gridlock and it didn't happen. But like I also say, they were mainly worried about a no deal scenario.

As for covid. Health is not under the remit of the EU. It is down to individual states. So to blame the lack of vaccine roll out on the EU is misguided. But that said, there is more to it that taking a simple view. I note for example, that French citizens are very wary of vaccines for reasons I don't fully understand.
Not an expert, but the EU does have a medicines regulator and I think they have to say yes before individual countries can? And they've approved the Pfizer and Moderna, but not
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imlikeahermit
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Laughable. Companies literally losing hundreds of thousands of pounds on red tape, billions of trading stocks gone from London and thousands of jobs, fishermen all out of pocket, EU companies refusing to ship to the UK, and all Brexiteers can say is "We knew there would be issues" or "We've all got to work together to get it done." Absolutely laughable.
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username1799249
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(Original post by nexttime)
Probably not! But like I say, a lot o people were worried about complete gridlock and it didn't happen. But like I also say, they were mainly worried about a no deal scenario.
We kind of have a no deal at the moment. The deal Boris did only covers around 20% of what we do with the EU and the sh1t hasn't hit the fan yet because many haulage companies simply decided not to bother in January. The fun is yet to happen.
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Starship Trooper
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(Original post by imlikeahermit)
Laughable. Companies literally losing hundreds of thousands of pounds on red tape, billions of trading stocks gone from London and thousands of jobs, fishermen all out of pocket, EU companies refusing to ship to the UK, and all Brexiteers can say is "We knew there would be issues" or "We've all got to work together to get it done." Absolutely laughable.
All of which has had no noticeable impact to the majority of people. The absolute horror of GDP decreasing by 2%. Talk about first world problems 😂

And all of which are nothing compared to the economic impact of lockdowns
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DiddyDec
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(Original post by Starship Trooper)
All of which has had no noticeable impact to the majority of people. The absolute horror of GDP decreasing by 2%. Talk about first world problems 😂

And all of which are nothing compared to the economic impact of lockdowns
So what are the noticeable benefits?
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Starship Trooper
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(Original post by DiddyDec)
So what are the noticeable benefits?
Didn't say there are any. I never bought that we'd be economically better off. My point being that the economic ruin has failed to materialise for most people
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imlikeahermit
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(Original post by Starship Trooper)
All of which has had no noticeable impact to the majority of people. The absolute horror of GDP decreasing by 2%. Talk about first world problems 😂

And all of which are nothing compared to the economic impact of lockdowns
What’s utterly laughable is that you think this month worth of impact is it. This isn’t getting any better, and if it hasn’t in your opinion had a noticeable impact on the majority of people, it will do shortly when the ports start filling up. Small businesses make up a staggering amount of our economy, 5.32 million of them existed in the U.K. in 2019. It is those that are hit hardest by this all.

How about you go reel out your “talk about first world problems” to the fishermen who’ve lost thousands of pounds for no other reason than a vanity project. Excuse the reel pun.
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Pythian
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(Original post by ByEeek)
We kind of have a no deal at the moment. The deal Boris did only covers around 20% of what we do with the EU and the sh1t hasn't hit the fan yet because many haulage companies simply decided not to bother in January. The fun is yet to happen.
Firstly, we have a deal. It's the UK-EU trade agreement signed on 31st December. When you say "We kind of have a no deal at the moment" - this is a misinformation and distortion. It's one thing if you don't like the agreement; and another to suggest there isn't an agreement. Please. We have enough misinformation in the world.

Secondly, what do you mean by that 20% statistic?

* Putting Fact-checking hat on *
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Pythian
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(Original post by imlikeahermit)
What’s utterly laughable is that you think this month worth of impact is it. This isn’t getting any better, and if it hasn’t in your opinion had a noticeable impact on the majority of people, it will do shortly when the ports start filling up. Small businesses make up a staggering amount of our economy, 5.32 million of them existed in the U.K. in 2019. It is those that are hit hardest by this all.

How about you go reel out your “talk about first world problems” to the fishermen who’ve lost thousands of pounds for no other reason than a vanity project. Excuse the reel pun.
Hello there,

But have you factored in that most countries have had a significant recession-like dip in their GDP - irrespective of brexit. See these stats: https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/...mal/16934.jpeg
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SoonToBeExpat
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#15
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The covid crisis is filling up most of the room with smoke regarding the economic distribution caused by Brexit. Appart from the issues going on at Customs, it's too difficult to assertin the full extent of culpability that Brexit shares in the current economic meltdown...

(Original post by Pythian)
I imagine Brexit has a fairly trivial effect in the long-run.
Like you say, all of the Europe's economy is under severe stress right now with the rapidly developing Asian economy bound to overtake. But obviously GDP growth figures alone gives very little on the health of an economy. It's not like our GDP figures are expected to shrink but certainly the consequences of brexit will show down the growth rate in the medium term (5-15 years). Looking beyond that is largely unpredictable. What the UK does need to control is it's inflation rate and being very careful with mass borrowing... As it stands, the Euro is a vastly unpredictable and unstable currency when compared to Pound Sterling. If the Chancellor slips up and messes up GBP's stability then that could prove to be very disruptive in regards to foreign investments and sellable UK assets... But only time will tell.

The more pressing issue is the UK's position on the world stage.... We are still in the G7 but I'm not convinced we will be in there for long unless we rapidly start to broaden and strengthen are diplomatic alliances. I don't know enough about the subject on how to achieve this but as the brexiteers say, we are now a truly sovirign nation so whatever course of action we choose to take is in our hands with all the potential rewards and consequences.

Do I think Brexit is an entirely bad thing? No - there were issues with the block and how it operated and we were putting in more than we were getting out on a monetary perspective.

Do I think Brexit was necessarily a good decision? - No. It's proving to be putting huge strain on trade (as was expected) and we are paying the significant economic price at the most challenging of times.

However, I have no doubt the country will adapt and find solutions to these problems. In time we will form other trade agreements with other nations and new partnerships will arise. The economy will not be the same as it once was but it will still be strong and expand.

Ultimately, it's too early to tell how things are going right now. It's not perfect by any stretch, but I do think that it could of been ALOT worse (had we had a worse / no deal scenario) and personally I count that as a position thing.
Positivity and courage in the face of adversity is never a bad thing.
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imlikeahermit
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(Original post by Pythian)
Hello there,

But have you factored in that most countries have had a significant recession-like dip in their GDP - irrespective of brexit. See these stats: https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/...mal/16934.jpeg
Great stuff. Except they have only covid to deal with. We have both issues. And when firms are telling you they can’t export their fish due to Brexit, it’s because of Brexit, not covid.
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Starship Trooper
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(Original post by imlikeahermit)
What’s utterly laughable is that you think this month worth of impact is it. This isn’t getting any better, and if it hasn’t in your opinion had a noticeable impact on the majority of people, it will do shortly when the ports start filling up. Small businesses make up a staggering amount of our economy, 5.32 million of them existed in the U.K. in 2019. It is those that are hit hardest by this all.

How about you go reel out your “talk about first world problems” to the fishermen who’ve lost thousands of pounds for no other reason than a vanity project. Excuse the reel pun.
It could get worse but still very doable and as I said the economic impact of Brexit is inconsequential when compared to the lockdown. It's the equivalent of someone burning your house down and noticing that somebody's stolen all the loo roll.

Fishermen losing a few grand Is hardly devastating. Perhaps the gov could subsidise them for a while. The EU is the biggest vanity project out there and will collapse on our lifetimes.
Last edited by Starship Trooper; 1 month ago
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username1799249
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(Original post by Pythian)
Firstly, we have a deal. It's the UK-EU trade agreement signed on 31st December. When you say "We kind of have a no deal at the moment" - this is a misinformation and distortion. It's one thing if you don't like the agreement; and another to suggest there isn't an agreement. Please. We have enough misinformation in the world.

Secondly, what do you mean by that 20% statistic?

* Putting Fact-checking hat on *
Good on you for calling me out. I can't find a source for the 20% statistic - at least, not in the time I can be bothered to invest in this argument. I think my point was yes - we have a deal. But it certainly isn't the oven ready deal that sees the EU scampering for cover amid the might of Great British industry and power. From what I can see, it is a deal that keeps the headline grabbing likes of Nissan and Airbus happy and not a lot else.
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Rakas21
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My job exposes me to logistics so I'm aware of disruption however at the same time there's been no disruption to my purchases of general merchandise or food and so the personal impact on me has been minimal.

About what I expected overall then but less bad than the picture some remoaners are painting.
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Napp
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Not quite as catastrophic as it could have been but seeing as that low bar was basically that Britain would implode thats not much of a compliment.
If nothing else, it's nice to see that every single promise made has conclusively been debunked as a boatload of horse ****.
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