Fullofsurprises
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It's about to start - the Senate trial of President Trump. :eek:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...-live-updates/

He was impeached in the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives, so now it's come to the Senate. The Democrats theoretically have a majority of 1 (the casting vote of the Speaker, Vice President Harris) but they need quite a few more votes to get an Impeachment and this is unlikely.

We haven't had one of those since President Clinton was tried in Jan 1999 (unlike Trump, whilst still in office) for allegedly lying to the investigation about his sexual antics with Monica Lewinsky.

Clinton of course got off with a stern telling off and Trump may not even face that.

In the trial, Trump's lawyers (Trump himself won't appear) are arguing that the impeachment is unconstitutional because he's not in office any more - that will be rejected and is widely agreed by jurists to be legally invalid - and that anyway it was freedom of speech and not inflaming the crowd that motivated him to urge the mob onwards.

It will be interesting to see how many Republican Senators vote for Trump to be impeached. So far it appears that many are still very much afraid of Trump and his base and even though they don't like him and would probably in many cases like to see him impeached (and thus barred from running again as President), they don't dare vote for it.
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Starship Trooper
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Strike him down and he shall become powerful than you can possibly imagine...

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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Starship Trooper)
Strike him down and he shall become powerful than you can possibly imagine...

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Lol, yes, he will become Captain Orange.
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Calibrated.
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(Original post by Starship Trooper)
Strike him down and he shall become powerful than you can possibly imagine...
The American people struck him down on 3rd November and he responded by transforming into the Incredible Sulk.
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Starship Trooper
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I genuinely think this is a likely lose-lose situation for the Democrats although I don't think it will pass.

1-Let him off and it will embolden him and his followers.

2- Punish him and you will infuriate his base and create a martyr.

As a big Trump fan I hope they do impeach him. I suspect the adage of be careful what you wish for might well apply to liberals in this regard.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Starship Trooper)
I genuinely think this is a likely lose-lose situation for the Democrats although I don't think it will pass.

1-Let him off and it will embolden him and his followers.

2- Punish him and you will infuriate his base and create a martyr.

As a big Trump fan I hope they do impeach him. I suspect the adage of be careful what you wish for might well apply to liberals in this regard.
I don't think that's right, it's actually the reverse. It's a win-win for Democrats. If they win, Trump can't run again and a clear message will have been given that he was a crook. Most of his core base are a relatively small number of zealots and it won't make any difference to them, but a big number of people who voted for him were basically fooled and are starting to see that anyway - this will help.

On the other hand, if they lose, Trump might run again - and lose - but they will also have made the Republicans in Congress look very shifty, unprincipled and cheap - in the longer term, that's going to hurt them. There will be a partial return to centrist politics in the coming years and the people who wouldn't stand up against Trump will look more and more nasty and unpopular.
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Starship Trooper
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
I don't think that's right, it's actually the reverse. It's a win-win for Democrats. If they win, Trump can't run again and a clear message will have been given that he was a crook. Most of his core base are a relatively small number of zealots and it won't make any difference to them, but a big number of people who voted for him were basically fooled and are starting to see that anyway - this will help.

On the other hand, if they lose, Trump might run again - and lose - but they will also have made the Republicans in Congress look very shifty, unprincipled and cheap - in the longer term, that's going to hurt them. There will be a partial return to centrist politics in the coming years and the people who wouldn't stand up against Trump will look more and more nasty and unpopular.
Well, as I said to anarchism101 in another thread, the Trump "zealots" are in the process of taking over the GOP and appear to be winning and are prioritising that over everything.

So Biden will have a radical GOP to content with, not the usual melts like Romney et al- factor that in with what is probably going to be a very difficult presidency is going I think to work against the democrats even if they had elected a political genius: instead they've got ... Biden ... who lets be real is a pretty flawed candidate and already seems to have upset his base.
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ababab123
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who's watching live
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Gofre
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(Original post by Starship Trooper)
As a big Trump fan I hope they do impeach him.
The impeachment is done and dusted. Whether the Senate chooses to convict or acquit him of the charges he was impeached for, the House's impeachment doesn't change. He will forever be a twice impeached president.
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Ascend
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(Original post by Starship Trooper)
1-Let him off and it will embolden him and his followers.

2- Punish him and you will infuriate his base and create a martyr.
As a big Trump fan I hope they do impeach him. I suspect the adage of be careful what you wish for might well apply to liberals in this regard.
Loving the new terrorism capitulation and even apologia from the populist right.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by ababab123)
who's watching live
Meee. :teehee:

I'm finding the current speaker, one of Trump's lawyers, pretty unconvincing.
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Starship Trooper
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What a shocker that was 🤣
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Napp
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God this story is getting old already, why cant he do the decent thing and off himself so we dont have to listen to this interminable whining by everyone on both sides
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by Starship Trooper)
Well, as I said to anarchism101 in another thread, the Trump "zealots" are in the process of taking over the GOP and appear to be winning and are prioritising that over everything.
Yes, but the less the Republican Party looks like a coalition and the more it looks like a Trump cheering section, the less it will win.

There won't be a song and dance but quietly people will pick up their bags and leave. They may well remain registered Republicans. They may well vote for the local Republican for dog catcher but in the votes that count, the votes where the candidates are clearly allied to Trump, the Democrat will get the nod.

Those losses will be as much to do with the result of primaries as anything else. It is a peculliarity of the US System that a Party has to reel back in its losing primary supporters and what we are likely to see over the next few years is that the losing Republican primary candidate looks more like the Democrat than the winning Republican. It won't be huge numbers of voters, but it will be enough that swing states and districts don't swing any more and previously red areas are now in play.
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QE2
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(Original post by Starship Trooper)
Well, as I said to anarchism101 in another thread, the Trump "zealots" are in the process of taking over the GOP and appear to be winning and are prioritising that over everything.
And driving moderate Republicans towards the Democrats. The more public airings their dirty laundry get, the more this will happen.
It's a win/win for the Democrats.

The reason that the Dems gained the two senate seats in Georgia was because of Trumpeter zealot election lies. He is the gift that keeps on giving.
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Starship Trooper
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
Yes, but the less the Republican Party looks like a coalition and the more it looks like a Trump cheering section, the less it will win.

There won't be a song and dance but quietly people will pick up their bags and leave. They may well remain registered Republicans. They may well vote for the local Republican for dog catcher but in the votes that count, the votes where the candidates are clearly allied to Trump, the Democrat will get the nod.

Those losses will be as much to do with the result of primaries as anything else. It is a peculliarity of the US System that a Party has to reel back in its losing primary supporters and what we are likely to see over the next few years is that the losing Republican primary candidate looks more like the Democrat than the winning Republican. It won't be huge numbers of voters, but it will be enough that swing states and districts don't swing any more and previously red areas are now in play.
In theory that is how it should work but we are on volatile and unpredictable times. I could be wrong bit I suspect it's the Biden presidency that is the black swan rather than Trump as we can see from the rise of the populist fight across the globe and the decline of the centre left (the exceptions like NZ proving the rule)
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Starship Trooper
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(Original post by QE2)
And driving moderate Republicans towards the Democrats. The more public airings their dirty laundry get, the more this will happen.
It's a win/win for the Democrats.

The reason that the Dems gained the two senate seats in Georgia was because of Trumpeter zealot election lies. He is the gift that keeps on giving.
See my above post on your first point

As per your second point I think it's because the GOP candidates there were **** to be frank.
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QE2
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(Original post by Starship Trooper)
In theory that is how it should work but we are on volatile and unpredictable times. I could be wrong bit I suspect it's the Biden presidency that is the black swan rather than Trump as we can see from the rise of the populist fight across the globe and the decline of the centre left (the exceptions like NZ proving the rule)
The Democrats in the US are centre right. They can attract traditional Republicans better than a GOP becoming more Trump zealot.
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Starship Trooper
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(Original post by QE2)
The Democrats in the US are centre right.

They can attract traditional Republicans better than a GOP becoming more Trump zealot.
Centre right on economics sure. But way too the left socially.

Trump's base are not being driven by minute differences in tax police but by cultural and identity issues.

Additionally in the last post election poll I saw Trump still had a majority approval rating from moderate republicans.
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Fullofsurprises
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(Original post by Starship Trooper)
Additionally in the last post election poll I saw Trump still had a majority approval rating from moderate republicans.
One reason why Dems are running this process is to try to convince those centrist Reps that they made a mistake backing Trump. Always hard to do that of course, people don't like to think they were wrong about things.

So far I think the trial has gone well for the Democrats, the video was impressive and Trump's lawyers seemed rambling and incoherent.
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