anarchism101
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#41
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(Original post by Just my opinion)
Harris was first one of the 15 on stage at the Democratic nominations bail out of for lack of support and being so disliked, yet she is going to become the first female president within the next 4 years. We live in strange times where anything can happen.
Picking losing primary competitors as your running mate isn't that unusual. Biden himself got nowhere and dropped out early in 2008, but Obama still picked him as his VP. Ted Cruz pledged in 2016 that he would pick Carly Fiorina as his running mate even though she'd dropped out early.
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anarchism101
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#42
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(Original post by MatureStudent37)
That’s why they tried to impeach him. If that were successful, he couldn’t stand.

The democrats see him as a potential threat in 2024. Remove the threat is the best thing to do.
Indeed, but the threat they see is not one of mere partisan political interest, but rather something more fundamental/existential. Indeed, if you exclude the latter as a possibility, the former is actually pretty minimal.
Last edited by anarchism101; 1 month ago
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anarchism101
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#43
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Nationalism and a general belief in the rights of the majority over the minority
On the contrary, Trump was the candidate of the minority - and a declining minority at that. He lost the popular vote both times, required the Electoral College to even give him a fighting chance, never really managed a majority approval rating, and was the candidate of a party that is increasingly dependent on the counter-majoritarian constitutional structures of the US system to stand a chance of winning and holding power. If the US was a pure majoritarian system, a Trump-centric GOP would essentially mean permanent Democratic rule.
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MatureStudent37
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#44
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(Original post by anarchism101)
On the contrary, Trump was the candidate of the minority - and a declining minority at that. He lost the popular vote both times, required the Electoral College to even give him a fighting chance, never really managed a majority approval rating, and was the candidate of a party that is increasingly dependent on the counter-majoritarian constitutional structures of the US system to stand a chance of winning and holding power. If the US was a pure majoritarian system, a Trump-centric GOP would essentially mean permanent Democratic rule.
He also got more Americans to vote republican who ever voted republican before.

Through a fluke in the US presidential system, somebody who isn’t a politician is able to become POTUS.

There is an Evermore increasing number of people who have become disillusioned with politics and politicians. They’ll vote for people who aren’t part of the political classes who can appear to hold the electorate in contempt.

You now have a political outsider who has let it be known that he’s standing for the next presidential election against people who view his supporters as the deplorables.

Trump sent a shock wave through the US establishment as Brexit sent a shockwave through the British establishment.

In both cases, people will see that even with clear mandates, the establishment has tried to go against their wishes, and the establishment needs to learn the lessons of Dale Garnegies ‘how to win friends and influence people.’ I.e in order to try an win support from people don’t call them uneducated, racist, sexist morons. Here’s another clue. Don’t try throwing out the word transphobic to the general population. Nobody cares about it.

I hope before 2024, the US can sort itself out and get some half decent candidates in on both sides of the political divide. But I sense democrats are doubling down and going full regards, whilst Trumps supporters will be doing the same.
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nulli tertius
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I think Trump’s real problem is the loss of Twitter.

The Republican pollsters will have crunched the numbers and worked out that Trump can’t win in 2024. With two elections behind him, they know the demographics he can win depending on his opponent and those he cannot. By 2024, it isn’t going to be any better for him.

However, that wouldn’t matter so long as the nomination was concerned if he could speak to his base. He would win the Republican primaries easily. However, he is now dependent on the right wing media to get his message across and they are not beholden to him but to Republican money who aren’t going to be interested in a has-been loser.
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MatureStudent37
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#46
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
I think Trump’s real problem is the loss of Twitter.

The Republican pollsters will have crunched the numbers and worked out that Trump can’t win in 2024. With two elections behind him, they know the demographics he can win depending on his opponent and those he cannot. By 2024, it isn’t going to be any better for him.

However, that wouldn’t matter so long as the nomination was concerned if he could speak to his base. He would win the Republican primaries easily. However, he is now dependent on the right wing media to get his message across and they are not beholden to him but to Republican money who aren’t going to be interested in a has-been loser.
Quite a good point there sir.

How many people do you think get their news from Twitter? Ayatollah Hommaneh for example managed to effectively communicate to his followers in Iran from Paris on a mass scale.

He’d record a message on cassette, it would be played down the phone with other phones speaker over the earpiece.

I say that, as I know some people seem to live off Twitter. A lot don’t.

I don’t know how much of Trumps Twitters were just a mechanism to goad his opponents without having to interact with them. The responses against him probably got Trump more support than the contents of his Tweets.
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username5252758
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#47
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I was expecting something more rambunctious. Instead he seems really flat.

As for actual content, it is the usual grievance narrative and fear of migrants.
Last edited by username5252758; 1 month ago
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Starship Trooper
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#48
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"Maybe I'll beat the democrats a third time"

🤣🤣🤣
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anarchism101
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#49
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(Original post by MatureStudent37)
He also got more Americans to vote republican who ever voted republican before.
As did George W Bush. And Ronald Reagan. And Richard Nixon. And Dwight Eisenhower. This doesn't represent great political skill, just population growth over time. By share of the vote, Trump got less in both 2016 and 2020 than Mitt Romney did in 2012.

Through a fluke in the US presidential system, somebody who isn’t a politician is able to become POTUS.
Depends how you define "politician". Plenty of US presidents never held elected office prior, either being career civil servants/appointees (like Hoover and Taft) or prominent generals (Eisenhower, Grant, Taylor, etc). Only if you define "politician" incredibly broadly as "anyone to have ever held any public office" does Trump's win in 2016 become in some way unique in that regard.

But let's assume we do define it that way for the sake of argument. Trump was in many ways another in a long line of prominent "not a politician" candidates, from all political stripes, who all came from largely the same background - wealthy business owners and executives: Ross Perot, Steve Forbes, Herman Cain, Carly Fiorina, Tom Steyer, Howard Schultz - all figures with no experience of public office whatsoever, who rather than trying to climb up the political ladder like everyone else (Fiorina is a half-exception, having previously made a half-hearted run as the GOP Senate candidate in California and lost), immediately jumped to run for president, and were all, like Trump, treated as serious candidates by the media in a way the vast majority of non-politician Americans who suddenly announced a run for president would never have been. Why? Because the above candidates were all rich, and the media treats having money as a source of political legitimacy and seriousness.


There is an Evermore increasing number of people who have become disillusioned with politics and politicians. They’ll vote for people who aren’t part of the political classes who can appear to hold the electorate in contempt.

You now have a political outsider who has let it be known that he’s standing for the next presidential election against people who view his supporters as the deplorables.
This is all meaningless and generic jargon. Countless political candidates from just about every possible political persuasion present themselves as rebellious outsiders appealing to the politically disenchanted/disillusioned/ignored/etc. It's a campaign strategy that goes in and out of fashion over time.

In both cases, people will see that even with clear mandates, the establishment has tried to go against their wishes
Seems you missed the whole period from November to January of Trump and the GOP trying to find a way to overturn Biden's far clearer mandate.

and the establishment needs to learn the lessons of Dale Garnegies ‘how to win friends and influence people.’ I.e in order to try an win support from people don’t call them uneducated, racist, sexist morons. Here’s another clue. Don’t try throwing out the word transphobic to the general population. Nobody cares about it.

I hope before 2024, the US can sort itself out and get some half decent candidates in on both sides of the political divide. But I sense democrats are doubling down and going full regards, whilst Trumps supporters will be doing the same.
Interesting that you perceive the Democrats, who've just won total control of the federal government despite the whole electoral system being heavily slanted against them, as somehow being in need of advice from the most consistently unpopular president since approval polling started on how to win over voters.
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nulli tertius
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#50
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(Original post by MatureStudent37)
Quite a good point there sir.

How many people do you think get their news from Twitter? Ayatollah Hommaneh for example managed to effectively communicate to his followers in Iran from Paris on a mass scale.

He’d record a message on cassette, it would be played down the phone with other phones speaker over the earpiece.

I say that, as I know some people seem to live off Twitter. A lot don’t.

I don’t know how much of Trumps Twitters were just a mechanism to goad his opponents without having to interact with them. The responses against him probably got Trump more support than the contents of his Tweets.
The Ayatollah no doubt had word of mouth transmission without editorialising through gatherings of the faithful.

I suspect Roosevelt's fireside chats were a lot less mediated than later weekly radio broadcasts. Trump found a method of direct unmediated communication even if his readers then read it or heard it through secondary sources. Others didn't distort the message before it was delivered or editorialise it as it was being delivered and there was virtually no lead time between the events commented on and Trump's comments.

Without that, he is in a difficult place. Rubio or whoever speaks and will have several hours of traction before Trump is able to respond and then only in response to the questions of an interrogator who is as much questionning what Trump is saying as the initial comment.
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anarchism101
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Surprisingly strong straw poll result for DeSantis. I assumed that Trump would get around 50-75% and the rest would be divided between dozens of other candidates with no-one getting more than about 10-11%. Instead, looks like DeSantis holding the (very) early non-Trump frontrunner position.
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Economixxx
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#52
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(Original post by Calibrated.)
I was expecting something more rambunctious. Instead he seems really flat.

As for actual content, it is the usual grievance narrative and fear of migrants.
Which is no surprise. There has been no substantive change to his narrative since 2016. He is also recycling the same material that lost him the last election.
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Starship Trooper
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#53
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(Original post by anarchism101)
Surprisingly strong straw poll result for DeSantis. I assumed that Trump would get around 50-75% and the rest would be divided between dozens of other candidates with no-one getting more than about 10-11%. Instead, looks like DeSantis holding the (very) early non-Trump frontrunner position.
Desantis will be the successor to Trump not the challenger. Could be a VP.
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Starship Trooper
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#54
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Loved hearing Trump go after the RINOs. These people are finished.
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SHallowvale
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#55
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(Original post by Starship Trooper)
Loved hearing Trump go after the RINOs. These people are finished.
So to it the Republican Party, with any luck.
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Fullofsurprises
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#56
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#56
(Original post by anarchism101)
Surprisingly strong straw poll result for DeSantis. I assumed that Trump would get around 50-75% and the rest would be divided between dozens of other candidates with no-one getting more than about 10-11%. Instead, looks like DeSantis holding the (very) early non-Trump frontrunner position.
DeSantis is really just another headbanger on the Tea Party Right with a few tweaks here and there. He's not Trump, but he wouldn't be that much different to Trump in office, albeit possibly a little less howling at the moon.

I think the Republicans are in for something like ten years out of office now, they have moved well to the right of a clear majority of US voters. They are obsessed with issues that most voters don't think much about and ignoring (or treating callously) the economic plight of tens of millions marginalised and casualised after 2008 and battered by Covid.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
DeSantis is really just another headbanger on the Tea Party Right with a few tweaks here and there. He's not Trump, but he wouldn't be that much different to Trump in office, albeit possibly a little less howling at the moon.

I think the Republicans are in for something like ten years out of office now, they have moved well to the right of a clear majority of US voters. They are obsessed with issues that most voters don't think much about and ignoring (or treating callously) the economic plight of tens of millions marginalised and casualised after 2008 and battered by Covid.
I'm fairly sure Trump would lose if he ran again but I'm far from convinced that your correct on the Republicans/Trumpism.

As much as people like to paint a picture of Biden storming to victory in Congress, the senate and the presidency with Trump flailing, this was far from the victory margin that the Democrats and anti-Tumpers expected (they went backwards in Congress, crawled across the line in the Senate and got a 1% swing in the presidency).

Will Biden hold on in 2024, probably. But I suspect that this is probably the only time he'll hold both Houses and some are getting a bit excited, this a very divided nation and Biden lacks the control over militants like Cortes and Pelosi to unify the nation again.
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Starship Trooper
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#58
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#58
Trump's speech

-Doubling down on saying he won
-The GOP is now the Trump party
-Centrist trump critics shall be purged
-Repeal 230 first thing
-Go after and boycott left wing companies
-Trump going full TERF on women's sports 🤣
-Democrats profligate and spend billions on other countries rather than America
-Democrats are evil communists who hate America
- Usual Trump waffle
-Muh high BAME unemployment
-GOP needs to be vicious like the democrats and stick together.
-Judges are weak and the media is scum
-Trump will be President in 2024


Fact check: 100% True and Based

🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
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Rakas21
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#59
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#59
Repeal 230?
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Fullofsurprises
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#60
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#60
(Original post by Starship Trooper)
Trump's speech

-Trump will be President in 2024
I don't believe Trump will be running in '24. There will be too much come out about him by then - he will probably also have at least one criminal conviction and there are more shocking revelations about his misconduct on office to come. He knows this - the speeches and the ranting and the horse manure are all about raising yet more money, for his legal battles and to sponsor other candidates, especially his kids, into office.
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