Will Northern Ireland ever join the Republic of Ireland?

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blue900
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Do you think it could happen one day?
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DanB1991
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NI has the right to leave the UK and join the RI via referendum because of the Good Friday Agreement.

It's seen as having roughly a 30-45% Leave to 45-60% Remain split. So if brexit goes further downhill for Northern Ireland it would not be the craziest thing to happen in modern times.
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MatureStudent37
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(Original post by DanB1991)
NI has the right to leave the UK and join the RI via referendum because of the Good Friday Agreement.

It's seen as having roughly a 30-45% Leave to 45-60% Remain split. So if brexit goes further downhill for Northern Ireland it would not be the craziest thing to happen in modern times.
Has anybody asked anybody is the south?

Can Ireland afford it? With the amount of southerners nipping over the border to use the NHS, many would be in for a shock.

I also think k that with the way the EUs been operating recently, the republic is another to find that although Leo’s been used as a useful idiot in order to politicise the border issue during brexit negotiations, Eire’s realising how little influence they have in the EU.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU_i...ple_in_Ireland

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-i...simon-coveney/

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/healt...rexit-19672792

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/po...-unity-3102294
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DanB1991
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(Original post by MatureStudent37)
Has anybody asked anybody is the south?

Can Ireland afford it? With the amount of southerners nipping over the border to use the NHS, many would be in for a shock.

I also think k that with the way the EUs been operating recently, the republic is another to find that although Leo’s been used as a useful idiot in order to politicise the border issue during brexit negotiations, Eire’s realising how little influence they have in the EU.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU_i...ple_in_Ireland

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-i...simon-coveney/

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/healt...rexit-19672792

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/po...-unity-3102294
Having a faster and more efficient national health service than the UK.... oh jesus they're waiting by the lorry load to get into the uk.

Tbh I don't think there would be any issue in the slightest about a United Ireland, the question has always been whether or not the North wants it. Most people in the south want a united Island of Ireland, albeit it's not their biggest priority south of the border.
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MatureStudent37
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(Original post by DanB1991)
Having a faster and more efficient national health service than the UK.... oh jesus they're waiting by the lorry load to get into the uk.

Tbh I don't think there would be any issue in the slightest about a United Ireland, the question has always been whether or not the North wants it. Most people in the south want a united Island of Ireland, albeit it's not their biggest priority south of the border.
Neither is it something they can achieve themselves. It’s for the people of NI to decide, and they appear to say no.
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DanB1991
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(Original post by MatureStudent37)
Neither is it something they can achieve themselves. It’s for the people of NI to decide, and they appear to say no.
I've literally just put, "NI has the right to leave the UK and join the RI via referendum because of the Good Friday Agreement."

You've then asked is anyone in the south even wants it, the answer was "the question has always been whether or not the North wants it. Most people in the south want a united Island of Ireland, albeit it's not their biggest priority south of the border.".

Of course at the moment the North doesn't want it at the moment, however it's relatively close, with the odd poll giving the Leave side the lead. Brexit has also re-started the whole United Ireland Movement in NI so in the next 5-10 years I wouldn't be surprised if there is a vote.
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MatureStudent37
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(Original post by DanB1991)
I've literally just put, "NI has the right to leave the UK and join the RI via referendum because of the Good Friday Agreement."

You've then asked is anyone in the south even wants it, the answer was "the question has always been whether or not the North wants it. Most people in the south want a united Island of Ireland, albeit it's not their biggest priority south of the border.".

Of course at the moment the North doesn't want it at the moment, however it's relatively close, with the odd poll giving the Leave side the lead. Brexit has also re-started the whole United Ireland Movement in NI so in the next 5-10 years I wouldn't be surprised if there is a vote.
Apologies. I was just putting my own thoughts down.

I can’t disagree with anything you said.

majors government managed to set the groundwork for the GFA. Blair however was the one who claimed the glory.

Prior to the GFA, the security services had well and truly defeated PIRA militarily. It was viewed however, that only a political settlement would end the problem. There are those, myself included who believe PIRA needed to be seen to talk and be involved in a diplomatic settlement as the impression of a military defeat for Sinn Fein supports would lead to a never endless cycle of violence.

there’s been several resurgences of PIRA pre troubles. Each and every time they’ve Been successfully put down through the age old method of infiltration of its ranks and the arrest of its personnel.

Internment for example had been successfully used on both sides of the border previously several times. There’s no love lost between Dublin an PIRA. They’re a destabilise force on both sides of the border.

Blair, or TCB as he’s called, in order to gain support for his desire to be President of the USE, as well as trying to negotiate Gibraltar’s Sovereignty behind their back, chose to get the EU involved in the GFA even though they had no involvement in it.

As part of the brexit negotiations, although those who were aware of the importance of the GFA and had already agreed what needed to happen. Whilst TCB was advising the EU how to keep us in the EU, recommended politicising the border issue.

This stoked the flames. Nothing new historically. When it looked like the U.K. was at a weak point the baddies reached out to internal enemies in order to sow dissent. The internal dissent became useful idiots. Bolsheviks in WW1 in Russia, welsh, Irish and Scottish nationalists in WW2. The useful iodinated I’m under the impression that their end game was aligned with that of the main belligerent.

So as expected, we’ve seen a repeat of history with a political hand grenade being thrown into the GFA in order to try and derail and stop brexit from happening. Fortunately Covid has come along to mask all of these shenanigans as you can only artificially rile up the population for a short period of time before they realise that what’s being said to them is compete rubbish.

The GFA allowed for a peaceful agreement for if a time came when the people of NI wished to unite. Or as a friend who lives over there said. A time when the catholic’s have outbred the Protestants.

Obviously things aren’t as simple as that. There’s historically been a lot of pro union catholics. We’re now seeing disgruntled pro EU Protestants having a bit of a hissy about leaving the EU. Anti EU republicans keeping their head down. Pro EU republicans seeing this as there chance.

Personally I suspect we’ll see a return to normal once the pandemics lifted as people go on with their lives and realise the world hasn’t ended because we’ve left the EU.
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L i b
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Doubt it. From a purely objective position, I doubt - faced with the consequences rather than being just asked if they like the idea - that many would want the risk and upheaval. There are, after all, a lot of moderate people who consider themselves Irish by identity or otherwise may be positive about Irish unification who won't much like the chance of reigniting violence, paying for GP appointments, losing the reassurance of being part of the UK and all that.

If it becomes a more realistic proposition, the head-over-heart stuff starts to kick in.

And yes, I'm not sure how the rest of Ireland would feel about the whole thing. I think the only way it could ever be done successfully would be to create a new country, one that left behind a lot of the symbolism and so on that the current Irish state has. While you can argue till you're blue in the face that the Irish flag, for example, was created to be a flag of all of Ireland, it simply wouldn't be accepted as such by many in Northern Ireland.
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MatureStudent37
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(Original post by L i b)
Doubt it. From a purely objective position, I doubt - faced with the consequences rather than being just asked if they like the idea - that many would want the risk and upheaval. There are, after all, a lot of moderate people who consider themselves Irish by identity or otherwise may be positive about Irish unification who won't much like the chance of reigniting violence, paying for GP appointments, losing the reassurance of being part of the UK and all that.

If it becomes a more realistic proposition, the head-over-heart stuff starts to kick in.

And yes, I'm not sure how the rest of Ireland would feel about the whole thing. I think the only way it could ever be done successfully would be to create a new country, one that left behind a lot of the symbolism and so on that the current Irish state has. While you can argue till you're blue in the face that the Irish flag, for example, was created to be a flag of all of Ireland, it simply wouldn't be accepted as such by many in Northern Ireland.
There does seem to be an increasing number of people calling for Northern Ireland to break away from the U.K. and Eire.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by MatureStudent37)
There does seem to be an increasing number of people calling for Northern Ireland to break away from the U.K. and Eire.
Only vocally, not demonstrated in any recent elections.

..

Personally I don't see it happening this decade, who knows afterwards. The explicit unionist support has diluted in favour of the Alliance who are basically unionist-lite since they exist to maintain a europhile status-quo (they are basically NI Lib Dem's).

There's a chance that the TUV could hand victory to the nationalists though as they appearing to be harming the DUP (they are even more hardline).
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nulli tertius
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I think Irish unity will happen despite probably a majority both North and South probably not wanting it.

I think the issue is that the consequences of Brexit have knocked the stuffing out of the Unionist cause. Enough people from the Unionist community will be disenchantered by the semi-detached status from GB that they will no longer see the Union as worth pursuing.

Faced with a Border Poll, the “Lord, make me holy, but not yet” Nationalists who want unity in theory but not in practice will have to get off the fence and I think they will overwhelmingly vote “Yes” whilst secretly hoping the Unionists or the South will defeat it.

Likewise in the Republic, I think no one will be be able to oppose unity even if few want it. That was the position in West Germany in 1990 and I think it will be the position here.

The shenanigans in the SNP may have bought the Ulster Unionists a few more years because I think the catalyst for a Border Poll will be a vote for Scots independence. How do you argue for a union with a polity that is dissolving? There were plenty of people who saw themselves first and foremost as Yugoslavs but how do you argue for that when there is no Yugoslavia? As with Serbia and Monte***** how do you argue that you are British when the The folk in London and Cardiff are referring to England and Wales not Britain or the U.K?
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L i b
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Personally I don't see it happening this decade, who knows afterwards. The explicit unionist support has diluted in favour of the Alliance who are basically unionist-lite since they exist to maintain a europhile status-quo (they are basically NI Lib Dem's).

There's a chance that the TUV could hand victory to the nationalists though as they appearing to be harming the DUP (they are even more hardline).
Northern Irish Unionists: consistently their own worst enemies.
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anarchism101
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(Original post by L i b)
Northern Irish Unionists: consistently their own worst enemies.
Indeed. Consistently throughout the 20th Century hardline Unionists/Loyalists blocked efforts at settlements which would been far more favourable to Unionists that what they ultimately ended up with in 1998, and they seem determined to repeat those mistakes.
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Napp
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
I think Irish unity will happen despite probably a majority both North and South probably not wanting it.

I think the issue is that the consequences of Brexit have knocked the stuffing out of the Unionist cause. Enough people from the Unionist community will be disenchantered by the semi-detached status from GB that they will no longer see the Union as worth pursuing.

Faced with a Border Poll, the “Lord, make me holy, but not yet” Nationalists who want unity in theory but not in practice will have to get off the fence and I think they will overwhelmingly vote “Yes” whilst secretly hoping the Unionists or the South will defeat it.

Likewise in the Republic, I think no one will be be able to oppose unity even if few want it. That was the position in West Germany in 1990 and I think it will be the position here.

The shenanigans in the SNP may have bought the Ulster Unionists a few more years because I think the catalyst for a Border Poll will be a vote for Scots independence. How do you argue for a union with a polity that is dissolving? There were plenty of people who saw themselves first and foremost as Yugoslavs but how do you argue for that when there is no Yugoslavia? As with Serbia and Monte***** how do you argue that you are British when the The folk in London and Cardiff are referring to England and Wales not Britain or the U.K?
The real question is why does anyone in Britain care? Outside of some quiant issue of nostalgia, its not like NI makes any real positive contribution to the mainland outside of being a drain on the Treasury and depositing the odd bomb here and there. Now Scotland is a whole different kettle of fish and fairly incomparable in ones view, aside from their ability to govern themselves (even if somewhat dubiously under the SNP) Scotland has always featured much more prominently for England than NI has. From being the catalyst of our empire to contributing successive PMs. It's a shame English nationalism, notably brexit, is pushing them away.

Detour aside, and on your first comment, i do wonder what the prospect for independent NI are? There's no reason they couldnt go that way after all, if anything its a relatively odd phenomena that a politic seeks to subjugate themselves as an end point as opposed to govern themselves.
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