Could Covid spread aggressively among the young unvaccinated population?

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Ambitious1999
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With most older vulnerable people vaccinated the virus has lost a huge number of easy hosts and could be on the hunt for new younger hosts.

Covid like all things that reproduce follows the same laws of natural selection as other organisms. It’s aim is to preserve and pass on its genetic material. Young people are difficult hosts they don’t get the severe symptoms that older people get that spread the virus because of natural and physical resistance.

A successful virus needs its host to be coughing their lungs up spreading respiratory secretions over their hands etc so other hosts catch it.

The virus will mutate and the successful progeny will break through the resistance that young people have and they could develop very severe and possibly deadly symptoms. The virus is looking for new vectors and we have boxed it into a corner and it will fight its way out with huge aggression. There are 50 million people unvaccinated and it could spread like wildfire. To prevent this the government needs to be vaccinating the remaining population faster than the process of natural selection. That means shutting the country down for a fortnight with vaccination 24/7, converting new factories to produce more vaccine. Turning schools, churches, libraries into vaccination centres. We need to get all adults from 18-50 offered the vaccine in as little 1 month. Waiting till summer or autumn could be too late. The virus could soon in hot pursuit of the unvaccinated,
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berenbergdc
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(Original post by Ambitious1999)
With most older vulnerable people vaccinated the virus has lost a huge number of easy hosts and could be on the hunt for new younger hosts.

Covid like all things that reproduce follows the same laws of natural selection as other organisms. It’s aim is to preserve and pass on its genetic material. Young people are difficult hosts they don’t get the severe symptoms that older people get that spread the virus because of natural and physical resistance.

A successful virus needs its host to be coughing their lungs up spreading respiratory secretions over their hands etc so other hosts catch it.

The virus will mutate and the successful progeny will break through the resistance that young people have and they could develop very severe and possibly deadly symptoms. The virus is looking for new vectors aTo your nd we have boxed it into a corner and it will fight its way out with huge aggression. There are 50 million people unvaccinated and it could spread like wildfire. To prevent this the government needs to be vaccinating the remaining population faster than the process of natural selection. That means shutting the country down for a fortnight with vaccination 24/7, converting new factories to produce more vaccine. Turning schools, churches, libraries into vaccination centres. We need to get all adults from 18-50 offered the vaccine in as little 1 month. Waiting till summer or autumn could be too late. The virus could soon in hot pursuit of the unvaccinated,
To your question in the title, the answer is 'no.' The rest of your post is more of an opinion you state, I don't have much to say about it.
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HorribleHatty
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I (almost) entirely disagree. The chance of a young and healthy under 50 year old suffering severe (hospital worthy) symptoms is low, the chance of them dying is vanishingly small.

I hate to break this to you but we are all going to die at some point. And yes, some of us will be incredibly unlucky and die of something transmissible that doesn’t generally kill healthy young people. Locking down an entire country to save a permille of the population is ludicrous. Not only is it ludicrous, it’s also unworkable. There is no appetite for further lockdowns.
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Cryoraptor
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Actually, most of what you say is wrong.

Young people who have little response to the virus are ideal hosts because they have silent or very mild disease, and so they don't isolate themselves and are a lot more likely to spread the disease than an older person who becomes seriously ill and is isolated in a hospital and isn't coming into regular contact with other people.

Common diseases like the common cold, false colds, gastroenteritis etc. are so common and widespread because they cause mild disease. This means most people don't take time off school or work if they catch these diseases and so they keep coming into contact with uninfected people, i.e. new hosts. When the viruses and bacteria that cause these mild infections first jumped to humans or ancestors of modern humans, they likely did cause more severe disease as COVID and other zoonotic outbreaks in recent history have. But over time, because at that point vaccines and supportive therapy weren't things, we adapted to the microbes and the microbes adapted to us, so now we have built up a lot of resistance to common diseases like this, and said common diseases rarely cause excessive damage to their hosts because they are adapted to invading parts of human tissue that are not vital, i.e. the common cold with throat and upper epithelial tissue. It will not invade the more critical lower respiratory system unless allowed to by a weak immune response.

Part of the reason why COVID is so contagious is because of how little of an adaptive response it stimulates; most of the initial encounter with live COVID will be the innate immune system, that is, macrophages and NK cells, ruthlessly killing infected cells with everything they have to stop the virus from spreading further. In younger people this is enough to stop the disease because young people have very strong immune systems (humans in general have a very strong immune response due to being social animals and consequently encountering lots of pathogens and parasites), but in older people and the clinically vulnerable with worn out immune systems, this doesn't fully halt the virus and leads to a lot of dead tissue building up in the lungs where the virus has infected lots of cells and where the innate immune system has killed said cells in response. This is largely what causes severe complications and gives way to secondary bacterial infections as the immune cells that would normally guard the airways from opportunistic pathogens and keep commensal microbes like strep in check have been called to battle in desperation.

In the case of young people, because very little adaptive response is stimulated, they also don't produce an adequate symptomatic response; with colds and flu and common GI disease, the physical immune response is stimulated and you get effects such as thickened mucous, headache, fatigue etc. which are all either helping the immune system get rid of the invader or are side effects of an inflammatory response. In COVID it's not very common for most people to get anything worse than a cough and/or a headache or changes to their taste and smell. This is not a good immune response and because of the lack of physical barriers, lots and lots of virus particles are able to be coughed or spoken out of the body.

So no, older people who develop more severe disease are not the ideal hosts, children and young adults who don't get very ill from COVID on the first encounter with the live virus are the best hosts for the virus to keep spreading.

To answer the question, we're expecting an increase in case numbers as people go back to school and work, but with most of the vulnerable population vaccinated, it doesn't really matter anymore, and as the rest of the healthy population will be vaccinated in the next few months, it'll be gone soon anyway. As COVID is being vaccinated for and most people will eventually have a good adaptive response to the virus, the normal respiratory viruses that people have less resistance to than COVID will very much be massively favoured by natural selection, and they will probably be good competition for the remaining COVID, especially other human coronaviruses.

Stop panicking. We are beating COVID. Once the non-idiots of the population are vaccinated, I suspect natural selection will do the rest of the work and the normal viruses will take revenge on COVID for outcompeting them in 2020 and restricting their hosts. Saying that, SARS-CoV-2 is a Supervirus and it's highly adaptable and contagious, so it could still stay very much in the game for a long time yet, although well within manageable flu-like levels.
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PilgrimOfTruth
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(Original post by Ambitious1999)
With most older vulnerable people vaccinated the virus has lost a huge number of easy hosts and could be on the hunt for new younger hosts.

Covid like all things that reproduce follows the same laws of natural selection as other organisms. It’s aim is to preserve and pass on its genetic material. Young people are difficult hosts they don’t get the severe symptoms that older people get that spread the virus because of natural and physical resistance.

A successful virus needs its host to be coughing their lungs up spreading respiratory secretions over their hands etc so other hosts catch it.

The virus will mutate and the successful progeny will break through the resistance that young people have and they could develop very severe and possibly deadly symptoms. The virus is looking for new vectors and we have boxed it into a corner and it will fight its way out with huge aggression. There are 50 million people unvaccinated and it could spread like wildfire. To prevent this the government needs to be vaccinating the remaining population faster than the process of natural selection. That means shutting the country down for a fortnight with vaccination 24/7, converting new factories to produce more vaccine. Turning schools, churches, libraries into vaccination centres. We need to get all adults from 18-50 offered the vaccine in as little 1 month. Waiting till summer or autumn could be too late. The virus could soon in hot pursuit of the unvaccinated,
Most of this is bunkum I'm afraid. The virus is not intelligent, doesn't think, doesn't pick and choose it's victims. It's just a virus and like all viruses replicates in hosts. It's impact to a given person comes down to a range of factors, not least the strength and state of your health and immune system. If you live a poor lifestyle and don't prioritise your immune system then inevitably you will be vulnerable to serious Covid illness or indeed to any other virus circulating.

On top of this how you immediately respond to any Covid symptoms will determine how badly you suffer and could even be the difference between life and death. Your body's immediate response to viruses and bacterial infections is to raise your body temperature. i.e. It generates a fever.
The understanding of this is absolutely vital and sadly many people don't understand what a fever is and consequently reach for pills like paracetamols and other painkillers which force a fever down. The reality is that a fever is your own body's vital first line of defence. By raising your body temperature it prevents viruses from being able to replicate. A fever IS NOT caused by the virus. A fever is the body's defence mechanism and a sure sign that your body is fighting a bug.

By stopping a virus from replicating it means your body can then send in it's infantry of White Cell soldiers to go and kill off whatever virus exists at that point. If you were to obstruct this key body defence mechanism by taking paracetamols and Neurofens that force the fever down then you actively obstruct your body's own healing mechanisms and as a result the virus is able to replicate freely, uncontested, and soon overruns your body such that your body just can't cope with the quantity of virus now invading it. Fever is your friend. So long as it doesn't reach dangerous levels (like 106 degrees +) then embrace it. and let it do its job.

It's surprising how many doctors and GPs don't realise this and instead tell patients to take paracetamols and Neurofens etc when they get colds,, Flu and ILIs. Small wonder many then develop Pneumonia as the viruses overrun the body.

Covid will become naturally meaningles to us because many millions and millions of people have now had Covid and now have natural immunity to it. As most know natural immunity is normally very strong and long lasting and studies suggest natural immunity to Covid is no different.
Other people who can't risk getting Covid and gaining natural immunity are getting vaccinated. Either way, that combination of natural immunity and vaccine-derived immunity is what is making it difficult for Covid to continue making life difficult for us. It will inevitably settle down in the same way that Flu has. There will be many mutations just like Flu and there will be a regular attrition of deaths every year just like Flu. Flu has been killing up to 650,000 people every year for years, it's just that no-one ever really cared about that. No-one was worried about social distancing, or wearing masks and just gaily spread Flu and colds and ILIs everywhere they went and we all took it in our stride. This is life. You either take your health and immune system seriously or you don't. If you don't then you eventually come a cropper to one or more viruses.

There is absolutely no need whatsoever to get the entire world vaccinated. That's just pure bunkum and not remotely rooted in science and nothing but Pharma propaganda. You need people immune and that can come by BOTH natural immunity and vaccine-derived immunity. They are both equally valid, and in fact I would say that natural immunity is the preferred type if it can be achieved safely.

I can see no reason at all why anyone who has had Covid would need to get vaccinated. Their bodies already know how to recognise and deal with the virus now and studies show that their immunity will last.

Even mild Covid-19 cases confer ‘durable immunity,’ new studies find.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/w...-covid-19.html

"Scientists who have been monitoring immune responses to the coronavirus for months are now starting to see encouraging signs of strong, lasting immunity, even in people who developed only mild symptoms of Covid-19, a flurry of new studies has found."

Long-Lasting Immunity Follows Serious COVID Cases
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020...us-covid-cases

"researchers found that measuring an antibody called immunoglobulin G (IgG) was highly accurate in identifying infected patients who had symptoms for at least 14 days. The levels of antibodies remained high for four months and were linked with high levels of other protective antibodies, which didn't decrease over time."

COVID-19: Vaccines continue to progress as more proof of long-lasting immunity emerges
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/art...munity-emerges

"Scientists have shown that those who have had the virus may have at least some level of lasting immunity. This is helpful not just for those who have had the infection, but also for using their plasma and possibly T cells to treat others.

For instance, researchers at the University of Arizona College of Medicine in Tucson have found that people who have had COVID-19 develop long-lasting immunity. Their study appears in the journal Immunity.

Even more hopeful is the parallel that Prof. Bhattacharya draws with SARS-CoV-2’s cousin, SARS-CoV, where evidence suggests immunity could last 12–17 years.

“If SARS-CoV-2 is anything like the first one, we expect antibodies to last at least 2 years, and it would be unlikely for anything much shorter,” he says."



Robust neutralizing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 infection persist for months
https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abd7728

Robust T Cell Immunity in Convalescent Individuals with Asymptomatic or Mild COVID-19
https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?...2820%2931008-4
Last edited by PilgrimOfTruth; 1 month ago
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PilgrimOfTruth
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Here's a bunch of more recent credible papers showing how long and strong natural immunity is

Lasting immunity found after recovery from COVID-19 (Jan 2021)
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-...overy-covid-19


Immunity to the Coronavirus May Last Years, New Data Hint
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/h...-immunity.html

"How long might immunity to the coronavirus last? Years, maybe even decades, according to a new study — the most hopeful answer yet to a question that has shadowed plans for widespread vaccination.
Eight months after infection, most people who have recovered still have enough immune cells to fend off the virus and prevent illness, the new data show. A slow rate of decline in the short term suggests, happily, that these cells may persist in the body for a very, very long time to come.

The research, published online, has not been peer-reviewed nor published in a scientific journal. But it is the most comprehensive and long-ranging study of immune memory to the coronavirus to date.

“That amount of memory would likely prevent the vast majority of people from getting hospitalized disease, severe disease, for many years,” said Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute of Immunology who co-led the new study."


Contracting COVID-19 led people to have greater immunity than a vaccine would.
https://www.kentucky.com/news/corona...247264944.html

"Sen. Rand Paul called out his “haters” Wednesday after he drew social media criticism for saying that contracting COVID-19 led people to have greater immunity than a vaccine would.

“Why does the left accept immune theory when it comes to vaccines, but not when discussing naturally acquired immunity?” Paul asked in a tweet Tuesday. The tweet was preceded by another social media post in which he said natural immunity to COVID-19 was “99.9982% percent effective.”




For the avoidance of doubt, anyone who is in the "at risk" categories to Covid should go and get vaccinated as it's too risky for such people to risk a bout of Covid. Millions of others have already had Covid and thus gained strong natural immunity that will likely last years. There is no justification I can see for vaccinating such people as their bodies already know how to recognise and deal with the virus. Remember 80%+ of Covid cases see no symptoms whatsoever and other cases just mild symptoms. Many people will have had Covid without realising it and thus gained natural immunity without realising it. Getting yourself tested would be the way to determine once and for all except that the government instructed us to "only get tested if we have symptoms" which is a pretty divisive way to conduct testing and means that their contrived figures only show those people who were positive and leave out the millions of people who have also had Covid but had no symptoms (the 80%+ of cases).

I believe I've already had Covid, was little more than 1-2 weeks of persistent dry cough, fatigue and the like. Accordingly I won't be taking any of the vaccines, I see no reason to do so at all. I now have natural immunity, and even if I am wrong about this, I will elect to face Covid head on because I look after my health and understand the role of a fever and what vitamins to immediately take if I start showing symptoms.

Each to their own of course. If you feel at risk then get vaccinated.
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