Scottish Independence

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Starship Trooper
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#1
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Do you think there's any situation in which the SNP would be granted another referendum soon? (Eg if they get 60% of the vote at the regional elections?)

What do you think the result would be in Scotland and the UK?

Personally as a right wing English person I'm fed up with their whining and insane leftie politics. It will also be fun to watch. Devolution is an awful idea and something else we can thank Mr Blair for.

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SHallowvale
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I think a large increase in the SNPs share of the vote (be it in an upcoming Scottish election or in a future general election) would be a precursor to a second referendum. At that point I think the result would sway in favour of independence. I can't see a referendum being granted by the UK government if the SNP fell in popularity.

Devolution at the very least is what an overwhelming majority of Scottish people want, so it isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
Last edited by SHallowvale; 4 weeks ago
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TCA2b
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It'd be rather interesting to see if the SNP would survive in its current form if it were to actually obtain independence... many Scots only support it for that singular purpose.
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Economixxx
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I doubt it will happen anytime soon.

It would be political suicide for Johnson or another Conservative PM at agree to a second referendum when there is a good probably that Scotland would vote in favour of independence. It would go down as the government that destroyed the Union.
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Starship Trooper
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(Original post by SHallowvale)
I think a large increase in the SNPs share of the vote (be it in an upcoming Scottish election or in a future general election) would be a precursor to a second referendum. At that point I think the result would sway in favour of independence. I can't see a referendum being granted by the UK government if the SNP fell in popularity.

Devolution at the very least is what an overwhelming majority of Scottish people want, so it isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
Agreed. Do you think that the Tories would ever grant it to the SNP if their vote increased ?

The Scots don't know what's good for them: Rule by the English 😂😉
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Starship Trooper
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(Original post by TCA2b)
It'd be rather interesting to see if the SNP would survive in its current form if it were to actually obtain independence... many Scots only support it for that singular purpose.
Agreed, in particular that brexit voting chunk of the SNP...

If Scotland went down the Proportional Representation route I think it would resemble Sweden quite a bit with potentially a right wing nationalist party in the mix...

I think you'd end up with something like this:

SNP-
Basically the same as today but maybe more technocratic

Green party of Scotland
Same as today

Social Democrat Party (pro union, pro eu )
Remnants of Labour and lib dem

Socialist Party (pro Ind, meh on EU)
Parts of Labour and SNP

Liberal Party (Pro Union, meh on EU)
Partsof all union parties, centre right party

Alternative for Scotland (Pro Ind, Pro Brexit)
Parts of SNP and Tories, Right wing party similar to Swedish Democrats.
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SHallowvale
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(Original post by Starship Trooper)
Agreed. Do you think that the Tories would ever grant it to the SNP if their vote increased ?

The Scots don't know what's good for them: Rule by the English 😂😉
I don't know, but I think it would definitely be required.

Your last sentence is exactly the kind of thing that encourages independence...
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Starship Trooper
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(Original post by SHallowvale)
Your last sentence is exactly the kind of thing that encourages independence...
I know 😉😂
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Rakas21
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I think that as much as I would despair as a Scotsman who has lived in Yorkshire most of my life (my country is Great Britain and Northern Ireland), if the SNP can actually exceed 50% (though the Greens also support betraying the union) then Boris won’t be able to reasonably and sustainably refuse to grant it. Albeit if he has a brain he will very publicly announce it will be after the 2024 election (set the date rather than let Sturgeon choose it, push it beyond her shelf life).

That said most raw polling still does not have Yes above 50% so there’s still a fair chance the union can hold.

In the short term though we really need a Con-Lib alliance in Scotland to dive up seats even if Lab can’t be trusted.

(Original post by TCA2b)
It'd be rather interesting to see if the SNP would survive in its current form if it were to actually obtain independence... many Scots only support it for that singular purpose.
I don’t think it can. Before 2011 it was basically a mix of 05 Lib Dem’s and Tartan Tories, after 2011 you’ve seen most of the moderate europhile labourites collapse into them.

After independence you’d probably keep a strong SNP as the party of europhile social democrats (the Lib Dem’s and Labour would probably die) along with the Greens but you’d likely see a split between the Tories for the unionist hangers on a new nationalist right (probably Euro-skeptic too).
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Quady
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(Original post by Starship Trooper)
Agreed, in particular that brexit voting chunk of the SNP...

If Scotland went down the Proportional Representation route I think it would resemble Sweden quite a bit with potentially a right wing nationalist party in the mix...

I think you'd end up with something like this:

SNP-
Basically the same as today but maybe more technocratic

Green party of Scotland
Same as today

Social Democrat Party (pro union, pro eu )
Remnants of Labour and lib dem

Socialist Party (pro Ind, meh on EU)
Parts of Labour and SNP

Liberal Party (Pro Union, meh on EU)
Parts of all union parties, centre right party

Alternative for Scotland (Pro Ind, Pro Brexit)
Parts of SNP and Tories, Right wing party similar to Swedish Democrats.
Where do non-liberal Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party unionist voters fit in with your model?
Last edited by Quady; 4 weeks ago
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Starship Trooper
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(Original post by Quady)
Where do non-liberal Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party unionist voters fit in with your model?
Probably the 'alternstive for Scotland' would be the best fit, perhaps they'll have s Unionist faction.
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JOSH4598
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(Original post by Economixxx)
It would be political suicide for Johnson or another Conservative PM at agree to a second referendum when there is a good probably that Scotland would vote in favour of independence. It would go down as the government that destroyed the Union.
Now that would be one hell of a legacy. Dealing with the three greatest issues the UK has faced in post-war times: Brexit, Coronavirus and the Union!!

Any sensible PM would delay the issue of Scotland for as long as possible - preferably in order to pass it on to the next PM whenever that may be.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by JOSH4598)
Now that would be one hell of a legacy. Dealing with the three greatest issues the UK has faced in post-war times: Brexit, Coronavirus and the Union!!

Any sensible PM would delay the issue of Scotland for as long as possible - preferably in order to pass it on to the next PM whenever that may be.
I’d suggest that Scotland is the most dangerous of the three.

I went from Europhile to Euro-skeptic but stayed Tory in 2015, 2017 and 2019 despite not being always pleased on the issue.

While not enthralled with how they have handled Covid as things stand I’m likely to vote for them in the locals (though partly because other parties would have made the same mistakes).

His fault or not, if Boris lost Scotland I would vote Labour to eject him and his party. If you can’t defend your own country then you don’t deserve to be in public office, let alone be granted the honour of government.
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JOSH4598
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(Original post by Rakas21)
I’d suggest that Scotland is the most dangerous of the three.

I went from Europhile to Euro-skeptic but stayed Tory in 2015, 2017 and 2019 despite not being always pleased on the issue.

While not enthralled with how they have handled Covid as things stand I’m likely to vote for them in the locals (though partly because other parties would have made the same mistakes).

His fault or not, if Boris lost Scotland I would vote Labour to eject him and his party. If you can’t defend your own country then you don’t deserve to be in public office, let alone be granted the honour of government.
I completely agree regarding Brexit and COVID. Any government of any colour would be slammed by the media given how complex both problems are and how complications are simply inevitable.

Although I don't think 'defending your country' and acting robustly is the best approach to Scotland. If Boris were to turn around and block any debate on independence, stopping it at all costs and holding the union together with the skin of his teeth the issue of Scotland will only become a bigger one. Scots won't just back down and if anything acting robustly provides more fuel for the independence movement.

Ultimately, you can't force the four nations to the United Kingdom to be part of the union if they passionately wish to leave. The Scots asked for devolution and got it - that clearly isn't enough. It's evident appeasing them does not work. I think Scotland would really struggle by themselves and in some ways you have to let them make that mistake. The onus is on the Scots to realise how much of a grave mistake it would be, not for Boris (or any PM) to force together a union which is crumbling. Happy for you or anyone else to disagree but the Scottish independence movement is such a huge thing there that merely acting robustly cannot halt it.
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MatureStudent37
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(Original post by JOSH4598)
I completely agree regarding Brexit and COVID. Any government of any colour would be slammed by the media given how complex both problems are and how complications are simply inevitable.

Although I don't think 'defending your country' and acting robustly is the best approach to Scotland. If Boris were to turn around and block any debate on independence, stopping it at all costs and holding the union together with the skin of his teeth the issue of Scotland will only become a bigger one. Scots won't just back down and if anything acting robustly provides more fuel for the independence movement.

Ultimately, you can't force the four nations to the United Kingdom to be part of the union if they passionately wish to leave. The Scots asked for devolution and got it - that clearly isn't enough. It's evident appeasing them does not work. I think Scotland would really struggle by themselves and in some ways you have to let them make that mistake. The onus is on the Scots to realise how much of a grave mistake it would be, not for Boris (or any PM) to force together a union which is crumbling. Happy for you or anyone else to disagree but the Scottish independence movement is such a huge thing there that merely acting robustly cannot halt it.
Scottish separatism is a relatively new concept. The odd balls have been around for quite some time, but the SNP have only really gained traction over the last ten years. This traction has mainly been seen with a U.K. wide distrust in the ecological establishment over this time.

Yes, the SNP get a large % of the bite, but they only get that large % because traditional Labour m, libdem and conservative boters have stopped voting, not versatile switched allegiance.

The SNP has been little more than a protest vote.

The SNps alignment with Sinn Fein in the late 70s: early 80s has allowed the SNP to push political divisions similar to those seen in Nirthern Ireland. They’ve silenced the media through intimidation, hijacked the civil service and generally been given a free reign up until recently.

Now the SNP is under the spotlight the facade is beginning to crumble a little. Their efforts on healthcare, education and the economy has been derivable. They’ve given a voice to some particularly unsavoury characters using language that I expected to see on the politically divided Northern Ireland, but never on the mainland.

As we’ve now left the EU, I suspect we’ll see a the SNP withdraw to whatever hope they came from. We’ll potentially see SNP politicians courting European politicians as they did in the late 30s/early 40s.

The SNP had their once in a generation referendum and lost. I think HMG is doing a good job by not engaging officially other than to say they will not allow a referendum. By not allowing a referendum, anything the SNP does will not be seen as a legal referendum.

To see what happens when an illegal referendum you just have to look at Catalonia. Catalonia’s illegal referendum gained support from such huge global players as Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
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Quady
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(Original post by MatureStudent37)
Scottish separatism is a relatively new concept. The odd balls have been around for quite some time, but the SNP have only really gained traction over the last ten years.
Thats not really true though is it?

2007 election the SNP polled higher than any other party.

1999 they got over 28% of the vote.

Yes, over the last 10 years they've crossed the threshold of an outright majority, but to suggest they had no traction two decades ago is junk.

Heck they took forth place in terms of vote share back in the 1966 election and haven't fared worse since.
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Quady
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(Original post by MatureStudent37)
hijacked the civil service
What does this even mean?

Or rather, have they hijacked the Civil Service any more than IDS hijacked DWP or Raab has hijacked the FCO...?
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L i b
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(Original post by JOSH4598)
Ultimately, you can't force the four nations to the United Kingdom to be part of the union if they passionately wish to leave. The Scots asked for devolution and got it - that clearly isn't enough. It's evident appeasing them does not work. I think Scotland would really struggle by themselves and in some ways you have to let them make that mistake. The onus is on the Scots to realise how much of a grave mistake it would be, not for Boris (or any PM) to force together a union which is crumbling. Happy for you or anyone else to disagree but the Scottish independence movement is such a huge thing there that merely acting robustly cannot halt it.
Much as I have some sympathy for the position that liberal democracies cannot endure when they specifically grant privileges to separatists who threaten their integrity, I think in practical terms the UK Government has conceded the principle of the UK being a voluntary union. The UK Government's role in all of this is as an arbiter of fairness. They can hold to the once-in-a-generation type approach - as well as placing conditions on the exercise of any referendum. There's not really anyone of note actually denying a future one can happen.

I think what they're expecting is a generational shift as has been seen, for example, in Quebec. The problem, of course, is that such an outcome could theoretically go either way. But with the SNP either emasculated or off the scene, constitutional stability would be more likely to favour the pro-UK cause.
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L i b
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(Original post by Quady)
Thats not really true though is it?

2007 election the SNP polled higher than any other party.

1999 they got over 28% of the vote.

Yes, over the last 10 years they've crossed the threshold of an outright majority, but to suggest they had no traction two decades ago is junk.

Heck they took forth place in terms of vote share back in the 1966 election and haven't fared worse since.
I think separatism and nationalism can be considered separately. In 1966, an SNP vote wouldn't - for most - have been a serious vote to break up the United Kingdom. To do so would have been a ridiculous prospect.

The ridiculously named Victorian Tory organisation, the National Association for the Vindication of Scottish Rights, about sums up where early nationalism was. A sort of movement for status, for Scottish culture and identity to be recognised. Post-war it was tied up with deindustrialisation and things like that - the idea that this Scottish community was under some sort of threat.

Scottish nationalism has a pretty lengthy history, certainly. It found expression among the Tories, in a sort of tartan-clad decentralisation; then in Labour who rode the bull of nationalism to attack the Tories in the 80s and 90s. I'm not sure Scottish separatism would've been given the time of day until relatively recently. Devolution and an SNP government gave it a platform and moved it into being something that could be reasonably contemplated.
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-Imperator-
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It would take something drastic.
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