JOSH4598
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#21
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The thing is, people did not vote for Brexit based on the economic argument. Critics constantly measure the 'success' of Brexit based on trade prosperity when the bigger argument was perceived sovereignty and immigration. I said this the other day on another thread, but I feel the vast majority of people who voted Brexit knew they would not be substancially better off when it comes to economics.

I appreciate some people may actively oppose Brexit but you can't measure the success of something when only looking at a narrow range of factors.
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Pythian
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#22
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#22
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
The results so far are even better than anyone could have hoped.

Attachment 1012135

Hopefully this will be properly celebrated at the planned 'Festival of Brexit'.
Source please?

The great Benjamin Disraeli: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics". When you look at the data, it's almost never quite how it is portrayed.
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nulli tertius
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#23
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(Original post by JOSH4598)
I feel the vast majority of people who voted Brexit knew they would not be substancially better off when it comes to economics.
The vast majority of people who voted Brexit had little exposure to the economy and what they had was beyond their understanding.

A very large number were pensioners on fixed incomes.

Many of the rest were production operatives with little understanding of how the products they made fitted into the wider economy. Take an industry that has been dramatically affected by Brexit; fishing. Most people with any conection to the fishing and fish processing industries supported Brexit. They saw Brexit only in terms of securing greater opportunities to fish. The idea that most of their product was exported and that would reduce simply didn't enter their heads.

The public have had a year long statistics lesson but it has not been about Brexit. It is been about Covid. The public have a far greater understanding of public health numbers than they had a year ago. We will see that going forward. When the Daily Mail screams that 10 people have gone down woth some dreaded lurgi people will remember when 30,000 a day were going down with Covid.
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QE2
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#24
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#24
(Original post by Tempest II)
Of course, COVID lockdowns have had no effect on those whatsoever...
Most countries appear to have pretty similar, or even higher levels of trade now compared to pre-pandemic levels.

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QE2
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#25
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#25
(Original post by Rakas21)
Of course those wanting compensation should be ignored, government is not responsible for insufficient diversification of export destinations.

As much as many in this thread whine though, has it changed anybody's opinion. I still think this was a bad deal and would have preferred No Deal, FOS and Napp always thought Brexit was bad and still do. In short, it's good media bait but of little substance to the wider argument.
Do not underestimate the satisfaction in being able to say "I told you so!"
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QE2
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#26
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(Original post by ThomH97)
I think it is to be expected (or even desired) that trade with EU would decrease,
:rofl:
Brilliant!
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QE2
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#27
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(Original post by JOSH4598)
The thing is, people did not vote for Brexit based on the economic argument. Critics constantly measure the 'success' of Brexit based on trade prosperity when the bigger argument was perceived sovereignty and immigration. I said this the other day on another thread, but I feel the vast majority of people who voted Brexit knew they would not be substancially better off when it comes to economics.

I appreciate some people may actively oppose Brexit but you can't measure the success of something when only looking at a narrow range of factors.
I think it's more likely that trade and economics didn't even enter their soft little heads. Their only consideration was them bloody foreigners.
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QE2
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#28
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(Original post by Pythian)
Source please?

The great Benjamin Disraeli: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics". When you look at the data, it's almost never quite how it is portrayed.
There is no record of Disraeli ever saying that.
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ThomH97
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#29
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(Original post by QE2)
:rofl:
Brilliant!
While you're obviously just here to try and antagonise anyone who disagrees with you, to use the divorce analogy, you would expect and desire to spend less time with your ex and more with others, even if the split was amicable.
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QE2
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#30
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(Original post by ThomH97)
While you're obviously just here to try and antagonise anyone who disagrees with you, to use the divorce analogy, you would expect and desire to spend less time with your ex and more with others, even if the split was amicable.
But the divorce analogy is flawed. The idea was to maintain trade with EU nations, but on our terms, not to suddenly find trade massively reduced with nothing to replace it.
It's like having an incompetent lawyer negotiate your divorce and you end up giving your ex everything you have instead of splitting it, and the bloke who got promoted above you at work has moved in with her, and the kids don't want to visit.
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ThomH97
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#31
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(Original post by QE2)
But the divorce analogy is flawed. The idea was to maintain trade with EU nations, but on our terms, not to suddenly find trade massively reduced with nothing to replace it.
It's like having an incompetent lawyer negotiate your divorce and you end up giving your ex everything you have instead of splitting it, and the bloke who got promoted above you at work has moved in with her, and the kids don't want to visit.
It's not a perfect analogy, sure, but leaving the EU was always expected to result in less trade with them, in the hope of building trade links elsewhere which in the long term would outweigh EU trade. That the world entered lockdown is obviously going to hit the attempt to build new links harder than putting existing links on hold until we knew more about Covid.

While both sides had their extremists of doom and gloom or paradise, most people would expect a significant - but not crippling - short to medium term hit to the economy, in return for long term greater autonomy (or more specifically, avoiding being bound ever more tightly to the EU) and more worldwide trade links. We could definitely do with someone more competent than Boris though.
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Fullofsurprises
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#32
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#32
(Original post by nulli tertius)
The vast majority of people who voted Brexit had little exposure to the economy and what they had was beyond their understanding.

A very large number were pensioners on fixed incomes.

Many of the rest were production operatives with little understanding of how the products they made fitted into the wider economy. Take an industry that has been dramatically affected by Brexit; fishing. Most people with any conection to the fishing and fish processing industries supported Brexit. They saw Brexit only in terms of securing greater opportunities to fish. The idea that most of their product was exported and that would reduce simply didn't enter their heads.

The public have had a year long statistics lesson but it has not been about Brexit. It is been about Covid. The public have a far greater understanding of public health numbers than they had a year ago. We will see that going forward. When the Daily Mail screams that 10 people have gone down woth some dreaded lurgi people will remember when 30,000 a day were going down with Covid.
One thing that's coming out is how many businesspeople who one might have imagined could fairly easily foresee the damage that Brexit would do to their medium sized businesses nonetheless were keen Leavers. Many of them are now whining to the government for extra help. Then we have the owners of second homes in Europe who voted for Brexit and are now shocked to discover that it means that they need to be residents and in many cases have found that difficult.

There are so many of these stories that it's not difficult to see the current situation as being like the aftermath of a death cult where those who somehow survived are wondering around dazedly discovering that their guru had feet of clay.
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Fullofsurprises
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#33
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#33
(Original post by QE2)
I think it's more likely that trade and economics didn't even enter their soft little heads. Their only consideration was them bloody foreigners.
And the ceaseless lying propaganda about the EU that we had in our main media for 40 years.
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Rakas21
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#34
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As alluded to by posters above I think one of the things Remoaners still don’t realise is that a lot of us that voted Brexit did acknowledge the economic argument so in that sense you won the (short term at least) economic argument. The argument you did not win however was on immigration, on sovereignty and some of the smaller issues and indeed 50% of those who voted leave regarded sovereignty as the most important factor when polled in the days afterwards.

I myself have a degree in Economics and read the Treasury and IMF analysis which forecast a moderate 2 year slowdown and then average growth of 1.8% rather than 2.2% to 2030. I considered that impact and concluded it was something we could live with, that essentially neutered the economy as an issue for me and allowed me to consider sovereignty and other issues.

When a socialist in the north east votes for Farage it does not mean they no longer want to nationalise everybody or tax business to death or don’t understand Marx any more it just means they consider immigrants more important. Brexit was more complex but no different.
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nulli tertius
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#35
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(Original post by Rakas21)
As alluded to by posters above I think one of the things Remoaners still don’t realise is that a lot of us that voted Brexit did acknowledge the economic argument so in that sense you won the (short term at least) economic argument. The argument you did not win however was on immigration, on sovereignty and some of the smaller issues and indeed 50% of those who voted leave regarded sovereignty as the most important factor when polled in the days afterwards.

I myself have a degree in Economics and read the Treasury and IMF analysis which forecast a moderate 2 year slowdown and then average growth of 1.8% rather than 2.2% to 2030. I considered that impact and concluded it was something we could live with, that essentially neutered the economy as an issue for me and allowed me to consider sovereignty and other issues.

When a socialist in the north east votes for Farage it does not mean they no longer want to nationalise everybody or tax business to death or don’t understand Marx any more it just means they consider immigrants more important. Brexit was more complex but no different.
However Brexit will never deliver what those who voted on sovereignty and immigration wanted.

Covid again is showing that. The EU has behaved appallingly over NI and vaccines but those sovereigntists are talking of appeasement and Dunkirk and other tropes from history whilst the Government are stitching up the sort of deal that is inevitable in a connected world in which we have little leverage.

Likewise, Brexiteers’ attitude to immigration shows the public’s sheer lack of grasp of statistics. Most Brexiteers welcome the right kind of immigration but then put the “right” numbers in the low tens of thousands without any real understanding of the size of population flows or labour shortages. Again to borrow an example from Covid; the people demanding that we put in quarantine facilities all arrivals in the U.K. in February 2020 had no conception that there were almost 4 million returning Brits in that month alone.
Last edited by nulli tertius; 3 weeks ago
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imlikeahermit
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#36
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#36
(Original post by JOSH4598)
The thing is, people did not vote for Brexit based on the economic argument. Critics constantly measure the 'success' of Brexit based on trade prosperity when the bigger argument was perceived sovereignty and immigration. I said this the other day on another thread, but I feel the vast majority of people who voted Brexit knew they would not be substancially better off when it comes to economics.

I appreciate some people may actively oppose Brexit but you can't measure the success of something when only looking at a narrow range of factors.
Of course they won’t be better off. The vast majority of people who voted for this shambles voted to make themselves poorer. They were completely conned by the only people set to make any money off of it.

However, in terms of the lower working classes, it’s their own fault for being so thick to believe it in the first place.
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QE2
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#37
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(Original post by Rakas21)
As alluded to by posters above I think one of the things Remoaners still don’t realise is that a lot of us that voted Brexit did acknowledge the economic argument so in that sense you won the (short term at least) economic argument. The argument you did not win however was on immigration, on sovereignty and some of the smaller issues and indeed 50% of those who voted leave regarded sovereignty as the most important factor when polled in the days afterwards.

I myself have a degree in Economics and read the Treasury and IMF analysis which forecast a moderate 2 year slowdown and then average growth of 1.8% rather than 2.2% to 2030. I considered that impact and concluded it was something we could live with, that essentially neutered the economy as an issue for me and allowed me to consider sovereignty and other issues.

When a socialist in the north east votes for Farage it does not mean they no longer want to nationalise everybody or tax business to death or don’t understand Marx any more it just means they consider immigrants more important. Brexit was more complex but no different.
Leavers before Brexit: "Lol! Project Fear, doom and gloomster Remoaners. Sunlit uplands! Easiest trade deals in history. etc. "
Leavers after Brexit: "Oh, we always knew it was going to be the economic disaster that Remainers warned us of, but we don't care".
:rofl:
Last edited by QE2; 3 weeks ago
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barnet1471
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#38
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#38
(Original post by JOSH4598)
The thing is, people did not vote for Brexit based on the economic argument. Critics constantly measure the 'success' of Brexit based on trade prosperity when the bigger argument was perceived sovereignty and immigration. I said this the other day on another thread, but I feel the vast majority of people who voted Brexit knew they would not be substancially better off when it comes to economics.

I appreciate some people may actively oppose Brexit but you can't measure the success of something when only looking at a narrow range of factors.
I think there were some who were fooled by the lie on the side of the bus (quoting gross contributions not net which was about 1/4 of the £350m), and this could have been enough to get over 50% supporting Brexit.


The impact of the pandemic and the economic illiteracy of this government has and will have a bigger impact than the economic self-harm of Brexit.
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-Imperator-
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#39
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#39
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
The results so far are even better than anyone could have hoped.

Attachment 1012135

Hopefully this will be properly celebrated at the planned 'Festival of Brexit'.
Wait, exports to the EU have dropped since we left? Who would have thought?!
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Fullofsurprises
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#40
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#40
(Original post by Rakas21)
When a socialist in the north east votes for Farage it does not mean they no longer want to nationalise everybody or tax business to death or don’t understand Marx any more it just means they consider immigrants more important. Brexit was more complex but no different.
By and large, the mass media tell people what to think and this is especially true for the less educated. It is no coincidence that the right wing tabloids and their allies on LBC, Talk Radio and in the BBC and Sky, constantly fronted Farage and his baying appeals to racism and petty nationalism. This was an orchestrated political action team and behind it sat overseas financial interests, particularly tax evading oligarchs like Rupert Murdoch, Peter Thiel, the Kochs, Russian oligarchs allied to Putin and so on - for them, the prime motive was retaining London as a money laundering and asset hiding centre and in particular, ensuring that the global network of tax havens nominally under British control remain that way in the long term. Everything else is just manipulation. The working class people in Britain who voted Brexit were simply deluded by this machine and by generations of racism, colonialism and imperialism that remain unexamined for most people and are easily triggered.
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