-Imperator-
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#41
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#41
This "food exports to the EU have fallen therefore Brexit was bad" graphic exhibits just the kind of economic illiteracy I would expect FaceBook posters to possess.
No mention of the corresponding fall in imports from the EU and indeed the rest of the world; the increase in global exports; the fact that we have actually reduced the trade deficit since leaving the EU; the stockpiling that occurred before the transition period which lead to increased activity in December 2020, artificially decreasing trade in January 2021; the global supply chain shortage affecting some industries (globally); the impact of the pandemic and lockdowns.
But hey, big red numbers.
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Fullofsurprises
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#42
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#42
(Original post by -Imperator-)
This "food exports to the EU have fallen therefore Brexit was bad" graphic exhibits just the kind of economic illiteracy I would expect FaceBook posters to possess.
No mention of the corresponding fall in imports from the EU and indeed the rest of the world; the increase in global exports; the fact that we have actually reduced the trade deficit since leaving the EU; the stockpiling that occurred before the transition period which lead to increased activity in December 2020, artificially decreasing trade in January 2021; the global supply chain shortage affecting some industries (globally); the impact of the pandemic and lockdowns.
But hey, big red numbers.
Falling deficits in trade are not good news if they are based on a major contraction in your economy.

The figures are widely available on dozens of news sites, you only have to do a few seconds Googling for confirmation.
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QE2
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#43
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(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
By and large, the mass media tell people what to think and this is especially true for the less educated. It is no coincidence that the right wing tabloids and their allies on LBC, Talk Radio and in the BBC and Sky, constantly fronted Farage and his baying appeals to racism and petty nationalism. This was an orchestrated political action team and behind it sat overseas financial interests, particularly tax evading oligarchs like Rupert Murdoch, Peter Thiel, the Kochs, Russian oligarchs allied to Putin and so on - for them, the prime motive was retaining London as a money laundering and asset hiding centre and in particular, ensuring that the global network of tax havens nominally under British control remain that way in the long term. Everything else is just manipulation. The working class people in Britain who voted Brexit were simply deluded by this machine and by generations of racism, colonialism and imperialism that remain unexamined for most people and are easily triggered.
And what's worse, all this was never a secret. It's not like people weren't warned.
"There are none so blind, etc..."
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QE2
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#44
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(Original post by -Imperator-)
This "food exports to the EU have fallen therefore Brexit was bad" graphic exhibits just the kind of economic illiteracy I would expect FaceBook posters to possess.
You seem to be ignoring the fact that behind the falling numbers are many small businesses who are facing ruin. And beyond them are many employees who voted for Brexit and for the Tory party that were determined to ram it through, regardless of the damage.

No mention of the corresponding fall in imports from the EU and indeed the rest of the world;
No need to mention them. I can see them from the empty fruit and salad sections in the supermarket!
Imports from EU countries fell by 28% in Jan while imports from non EU only fell by 12%. And anyway, I thought trade with non EU was supposed to take up the slack?

the increase in global exports;
Exports to non EU may have increased by £0.2 billion but exports to the EU fell by £5.6 billion in the same period.
I'm no economist, but those figures don't add up.

But hey, big red numbers.
It seems you may have fallen into the same trap of misrepresenting the figures, because the general trends are not favourable.
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-Imperator-
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#45
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(Original post by QE2)
It seems you may have fallen into the same trap of misrepresenting the figures, because the general trends are not favourable.
Nope, fanatic remainers just don't actually bother to analyse the stats. It's also a convenient distraction from the EUs calamitous response to covid.
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QE2
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#46
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(Original post by -Imperator-)
Nope, fanatic remainers just don't actually bother to analyse the stats.
Erm, *spproiinnggg!*

It's also a convenient distraction from the EUs calamitous response to covid.
What has that got to do with the economic repercussions of Brexit?
WADR, sounds like it is you who is attempting the distraction there.
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rockrunride
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#47
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But it seems no-one has really noticed.

"Ah yeah crap, I see we're not exporting as much, yeah let's get back in".

Even if we roll into a serious downturn independent of COVID there's a lot of hearts and minds you'll have to convince that Brexit was a bad decision.
Last edited by rockrunride; 3 weeks ago
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Napp
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#48
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(Original post by rockrunride)
But it seems no-one has really noticed.

"Ah yeah crap, I see we're not exporting as much, yeah let's get back in".

Even if we roll into a serious downturn independent of COVID there's a lot of hearts and minds you'll have to convince that Brexit was a bad decision.
I'd be curious how many of them are simply not changing their minds because they dont want to admit to having made a mistake tough ()same argument goes for the other side as well ill add) but lets be honest plenty of people were fooled with the barrage of lies about $350mn, keeping foreigners (dark ones ironically) out, sunlit uplands of economic prosperity (the hilarious notion that the commonwealth would be of any use still makes me laugh) and all that other clap trap. After all, people dont like to admit to having made mistakes especially when theyre going to be judged like hell for it - again this goes both ways but as far as fibbs go, there was always a clear winner.

If noting else, its mildly amusing seeing these photos of brexstremists coming back from Spain having jumped before being expelled as illegal immigrants, talk about ironic :rolleyes:
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Napp
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#49
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#49
(Original post by -Imperator-)
Nope, fanatic remainers just don't actually bother to analyse the stats. It's also a convenient distraction from the EUs calamitous response to covid.
Not to agree with QE2 and his odd proclivity for imitating a spring, but what stats are these that have been deliberately misread? After all, the export figures in this case speak for themselves in being decidedly bad. Not a good portent of things to come one way or the other.
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Ascend
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#50
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(Original post by Napp)
Not to agree with QE2 and his odd proclivity for imitating a spring,
:laugh:
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-Imperator-
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#51
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(Original post by Napp)
Not to agree with QE2 and his odd proclivity for imitating a spring, but what stats are these that have been deliberately misread? After all, the export figures in this case speak for themselves in being decidedly bad. Not a good portent of things to come one way or the other.
The graphic in the original post was shared around FaceBook as an anti-Brexit jibe. But there's no analysis of the stats or discussion of the causes. There are several points to make:
1) The food industry was chosen because it was the hardest hit; these losses are not representative of our exports generally. The food industry has been hit hard because of the EU introducing stricter checks and certifications after the transition period expired (lots of extra red tape).
2) In the run up to the end of the transition period, we saw trade flourish abnormally due to stockpiling (on both sides) in case of post-Brexit supply chain disruptions - despite Brexit, both imports and exports were up in the fourth quarter of 2020 from where they were in the fourth quarter of 2019.
3) When did we most recently go into lockdown? The beginning of January 2021. I hope I don't need to explain the impacts of lockdown on supply and demand.
4) The ability of businesses to import/export changed drastically even within the month of January itself. The proportion of businesses who were altogether unable to import/export was significantly lower at the end of the month than at the beginning. As of the beginning of February, things remained on the upward trend on this front.
5) Stockpiling aside, we should still expect significant disruptions in trade to follow the month immediately after the transition period ends as wrinkles are ironed out and businesses figure out how to comply with the new rules. The real test will be how we do once things are properly up and running.
6) There is, as of 2021, a global shortage of semiconductors, which effects some industries, particularly the £80 billion automotive industry here in the UK. This has had a (globally) disproportionate impact on our economy.
7) The trade deficit has nonetheless fallen - it's not the case that we're suddenly reliant on other economies. Our money isn't fleeing the country.
8) Month-on-month trade fluctuations are commonplace, and it doesn't make sense to draw such grand conclusions from such a short period of time. Quarterly analyses are more informative, and annual more still.

So yeah, given the lockdown and that this was literally the first month after the end of the transition period, the fall in trade was inevitable. It does not follow from this that, long-term, Brexit has devastated trade.
Last edited by -Imperator-; 3 weeks ago
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imlikeahermit
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#52
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#52
(Original post by Napp)
Not to agree with QE2 and his odd proclivity for imitating a spring, but what stats are these that have been deliberately misread? After all, the export figures in this case speak for themselves in being decidedly bad. Not a good portent of things to come one way or the other.
Perhaps he means the governments own estimate of 1.75m job losses as a direct result of Brexit. Perhaps we’re misreading that. :rolleyes:
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yeetouttawindow
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#53
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500 British migrants living in Spain have supposedly left the country for fear of being “booted out”, some saying within a matter of days. “My application has been rejected and we are on our way home – my wife is in tears,” said Costa-basted Brit Shaun Cromber, who admitted to voting Leave without “realis[ing] it would come to this”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-b1826005.html
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imlikeahermit
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#54
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(Original post by yeetouttawindow)
500 British migrants living in Spain have supposedly left the country for fear of being “booted out”, some saying within a matter of days. “My application has been rejected and we are on our way home – my wife is in tears,” said Costa-basted Brit Shaun Cromber, who admitted to voting Leave without “realis[ing] it would come to this”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-b1826005.html
Absolutely no sympathy for this fella and the thousands of others like him, or those that voted leave and lose their jobs. Entirely of their own making.
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Rakas21
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#55
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Should I feel guilty about a tiny minority of people living abroad and not come contributing to our own economy being forced to return.

No, this is something to pin on the Spanish government. Not Brexit. They manage their immigration policy now and rightfully so.
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imlikeahermit
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#56
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#56
(Original post by Rakas21)
Should I feel guilty about a tiny minority of people living abroad and not come contributing to our own economy being forced to return.

No, this is something to pin on the Spanish government. Not Brexit. They manage their immigration policy now and rightfully so.
From what I remember you have little regard for those who go abroad. Was it not you who mentioned skiing in the highlands rather than going to France?
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Fullofsurprises
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#57
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#57
(Original post by Rakas21)
Should I feel guilty about a tiny minority of people living abroad and not come contributing to our own economy being forced to return.

No, this is something to pin on the Spanish government. Not Brexit. They manage their immigration policy now and rightfully so.
It's half a million people - and enough of them are Tory voters to cause concern at Central Office, which is why they allowed the Stanley Johnson exemption.
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Rakas21
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#58
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(Original post by imlikeahermit)
From what I remember you have little regard for those who go abroad. Was it not you who mentioned skiing in the highlands rather than going to France?
Well I'm not saying one should never go abroad but yes. Don't spend your money elsewhere and expect me to have much sympathy. It's the height of middle class entitlement.

As May once said, a citizen of everywhere is a citizen of nowhere.
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
It's half a million people - and enough of them are Tory voters to cause concern at Central Office, which is why they allowed the Stanley Johnson exemption.
Are France employing the same harsh immigration constraints as Spain. My understanding was that they are permitting standard 5 year residence to citizenship.
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imlikeahermit
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#59
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Well I'm not saying one should never go abroad but yes. Don't spend your money elsewhere and expect me to have much sympathy. It's the height of middle class entitlement.

As May once said, a citizen of everywhere is a citizen of nowhere.

Are France employing the same harsh immigration constraints as Spain. My understanding was that they are permitting standard 5 year residence to citizenship.
Expecting to have freedom of movement is a middle class entitlement? Why should I be restricted due to Brexit know-it-all’s who have chosen to remove my freedom of movement?
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Fullofsurprises
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#60
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#60
(Original post by imlikeahermit)
Expecting to have freedom of movement is a middle class entitlement? Why should I be restricted due to Brexit know-it-all’s who have chosen to remove my freedom of movement?
Your views sound quite Soviet, they were keen on keeping all of their 'citizens' inside their country. Not since the English Civil War have British people been dictated to about needing permission to go abroad to live.
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