How likely are unis to accept offer if i dont meet grade requirements this year?

Somehow it has worked out that all my unis are offering me the same grade requirements. I managed to reduce my offer from manchester by two grades (from ABB to BBC) so now i am unsure what to put as my insurance choice. Stirling (offering BBC also) would be my clear next choice, however given possible grade inflation im not sure if theres any point to applying. Brighton uni, which i dont especially want to go to but would still be better than nothing, have offered me the equivilant of BBC in ucas points. Since its not unlikely that i will end up with ABD grades, i think there is a benefit to me putting that as my insurance. I'm just so torn, i was so set on Stirling uni before since i never thought the grades for Manchester would be realistic for me, so its sad not to include it as a choice.

If the offer is same from Stirling and Brighton I don't understand why you are thinking of putting Brighton at all. I would think it unlikely Manchester will reduce further so if you don't meet the offer you will end up at the insurance so no point putting anywhere you won't be happy. Plus if both offers are the same what makes you think Brighton more likely to reduce than Stirling. Worse case and no one reduces there's always clearing. Best case you meet the offer.

Subject?

Sorry maybe should have made it clearer, the offer is slightly different. Brighton want 112 ucas points, while stirling want BBC grades, which are basically equivalent. But im scared due to grade inflation due to this years exams, that if i get grades ABD (which is likely) stirling wont be lenient. But ABD would still give me 112 ucas points, which brighton will accept regardless.

OK- I get your issue now. My point still holds though, if you don't really fancy Brighton it is not worth taking it just because it is better than nothing as there will always be a chance Stirling would also accept ABD and there will be clearing. Which A levels are you anticipating which grades for, could make a difference? Are you fine dropping the philosophy element too?

Maybe you are right. I do really like Brighton, but it is the philosophy part that makes me prefer Stirling. Philsophy is just a big onterest of mine, so i could always persue it in my own time so its not the biggest issue. Im taking psychology (predicted A) history (B) and maths (D)