jtla3002
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Over time the ability to manage hazards from volcanic activity increases.' Examine the extent to which this statement is true. [33 marks]
ellenarcher - Any tips on how to answer this question would be appreciated

saw you helped out on a migration question. The way you broke it down was really helpful. Hopefully you can do it again : )
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archere
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(Original post by jtla3002)
Over time the ability to manage hazards from volcanic activity increases.' Examine the extent to which this statement is true. [33 marks]
ellenarcher - Any tips on how to answer this question would be appreciated

saw you helped out on a migration question. The way you broke it down was really helpful. Hopefully you can do it again : )
This question is ultimately asking you to write about hazard management. 2 key important factors in hazard management are...
1. The probability of the event frequency
2. The probability of the event magnitude
Does our ability to manage freqency and magnitude probability increase with time? Or, does uncertainty remain?
- Make sure to include key words and case study examples
- Use wording in the question in every paragraph to link your argument to the question

Introduction
- Establish what hazard management is
- Introduce your overall argument (E.g. Over time ability to manage volcanic activity hazards does increase. However, considerable uncertainty remains.)

Paragraph 1: YES - Over time the ability to manage hazards from volcanic activity increases
- Over time our understanding of volcanic hazards improves
- Long-term monitoring improves our understanding because we have historical data for behaviour patterns, eruption style and likely magnitude
- At well monitored sites there can be good understanding of previous activity and how this could indicate what hazards future volcanic activity could produce
- Bring in an example/case study to provide evidence! E.g. Montserrat where reconstructing past activity has been crucial for understanding potential future hazards and eruption behaviour. Evacuation zones are based on past activity.
- Historical data records can indicate what hazards may result from an eruption and appropriate interventions can be implemented e.g. Warning systems for lahars

Paragraph 2: YES - Over time the ability to manage hazards from volcanic activity increases
- Over time we are able to employ monitoring techniques more effectively
- Monitoring can improve forecasting capability which can inform management strategies e.g. effective warning systems can aid evacuation in a timely manner
- The ascent of magma is potentially a precursor to an eruption and this can be monitored
- Seismometers can detect signals of movement to provide information on eruption likelihood, timing and location
- Long-term monitoring with seismometers can indicate whether seismic swarm events are likely to be followed by an eruption
- Tiltmeters, Levelling Surveys, Satellite methods (e.g. InSAR, GPS) can measure displacement in the ground surface which provides evidence of deformation. Interpreting patterns of deformation aids assessment of location and magnitude.
- Gas emission changes can precede the arrival of magma. In order to dectect these changes monitoring over time is crucial, hence hazards can be better managed if we are aware of changes.

Paragraph 3: NO - Over time the ability to manage hazards from volcanic activity does not increase
- Managing volcanic hazards also depends on vulnerability!
- Even in well-monitored areas with an extensive historical record management is challenging because the perceived perception of risk plays a big role
- Inconsistent communication of warning systems can create lack of clarity
- Over time if there are lots of warnings given out to the public, yet no hazards transpire these 'false alarms' can damage pulic trust in warnings. When an eruption does occur people may not make a big effort to respond to alerts (= hazards have a greater impact!)
- Bring in an example/case study e.g. Guadeloupe, 1976 where 73,000 people were evacuated for 4 months but there was never an eruption

Paragraph 4: NO - Over time the ability to manage hazards from volcanic activity does not increase
- Monitoring only informs us about short-term unrest and unrest could still occur unexpectedly
- Signs of unrest provide little accurate information about style of activity or likely impacts
- Even at well monitored sites there is still an element of uncertainty
- At many volcanoes, eruptions are relatively infrequent so there is often little information about past events. Even long-term monitoring cannot mitigate against how difficult it can be to interpret data and make informed decisions as a result. A lot of volcanic activity is not forecast!
- Bring in an example/case study where past data has misled ability to manage hazards
- Volcanic activity can involve multiple hazards which often unique to individual events = hard to predict and manage!
- Some volcanoes can erupt unexpectedly. There may be few records of activity so the volcano is not deemed as a risk, but infact a rare/large eruption can still occur.

Conclusion
- Come to a judgement and tie your argument together
- Hazard management may improve over time but there are limitations.
- Management strategies depend on hazard warning and public perception. Consider how these might fail....failure of any component impacts overall management
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jtla3002
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(Original post by ellenarcher)
This question is ultimately asking you to write about hazard management. 2 key important factors in hazard management are...
1. The probability of the event frequency
2. The probability of the event magnitude
Does our ability to manage freqency and magnitude probability increase with time? Or, does uncertainty remain?
- Make sure to include key words and case study examples
- Use wording in the question in every paragraph to link your argument to the question

Introduction
- Establish what hazard management is
- Introduce your overall argument (E.g. Over time ability to manage volcanic activity hazards does increase. However, considerable uncertainty remains.)

Paragraph 1: YES - Over time the ability to manage hazards from volcanic activity increases
- Over time our understanding of volcanic hazards improves
- Long-term monitoring improves our understanding because we have historical data for behaviour patterns, eruption style and likely magnitude
- At well monitored sites there can be good understanding of previous activity and how this could indicate what hazards future volcanic activity could produce
- Bring in an example/case study to provide evidence! E.g. Montserrat where reconstructing past activity has been crucial for understanding potential future hazards and eruption behaviour. Evacuation zones are based on past activity.
- Historical data records can indicate what hazards may result from an eruption and appropriate interventions can be implemented e.g. Warning systems for lahars

Paragraph 2: YES - Over time the ability to manage hazards from volcanic activity increases
- Over time we are able to employ monitoring techniques more effectively
- Monitoring can improve forecasting capability which can inform management strategies e.g. effective warning systems can aid evacuation in a timely manner
- The ascent of magma is potentially a precursor to an eruption and this can be monitored
- Seismometers can detect signals of movement to provide information on eruption likelihood, timing and location
- Long-term monitoring with seismometers can indicate whether seismic swarm events are likely to be followed by an eruption
- Tiltmeters, Levelling Surveys, Satellite methods (e.g. InSAR, GPS) can measure displacement in the ground surface which provides evidence of deformation. Interpreting patterns of deformation aids assessment of location and magnitude.
- Gas emission changes can precede the arrival of magma. In order to dectect these changes monitoring over time is crucial, hence hazards can be better managed if we are aware of changes.

Paragraph 3: NO - Over time the ability to manage hazards from volcanic activity does not increase
- Managing volcanic hazards also depends on vulnerability!
- Even in well-monitored areas with an extensive historical record management is challenging because the perceived perception of risk plays a big role
- Inconsistent communication of warning systems can create lack of clarity
- Over time if there are lots of warnings given out to the public, yet no hazards transpire these 'false alarms' can damage pulic trust in warnings. When an eruption does occur people may not make a big effort to respond to alerts (= hazards have a greater impact!)
- Bring in an example/case study e.g. Guadeloupe, 1976 where 73,000 people were evacuated for 4 months but there was never an eruption

Paragraph 4: NO - Over time the ability to manage hazards from volcanic activity does not increase
- Monitoring only informs us about short-term unrest and unrest could still occur unexpectedly
- Signs of unrest provide little accurate information about style of activity or likely impacts
- Even at well monitored sites there is still an element of uncertainty
- At many volcanoes, eruptions are relatively infrequent so there is often little information about past events. Even long-term monitoring cannot mitigate against how difficult it can be to interpret data and make informed decisions as a result. A lot of volcanic activity is not forecast!
- Bring in an example/case study where past data has misled ability to manage hazards
- Volcanic activity can involve multiple hazards which often unique to individual events = hard to predict and manage!
- Some volcanoes can erupt unexpectedly. There may be few records of activity so the volcano is not deemed as a risk, but infact a rare/large eruption can still occur.

Conclusion
- Come to a judgement and tie your argument together
- Hazard management may improve over time but there are limitations.
- Management strategies depend on hazard warning and public perception. Consider how these might fail....failure of any component impacts overall management
Thank you so much for your help!! ellenarcher
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