On a path to WWIIIWatch
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The U.S. and U.K will share and develop nuclear submarine technology with Australia to build a new fleet of at least 8 Hunter-Killer class vessels for the Royal Australian Navy.
In doing so, the trio have alienated France and riled the EU by cancelling an existing £30 billion contract with the French to supply Australia with a fleet of 12 Barracuda conventionally powered submarines. Not only that, they gave the French but a few hours notice before making the nuclear deal public.
NATO and the UN in disarray, Macron sidelined and made to look irrelevant, Russia jumping on the bandwagon and gloating with schadenfreude for the cancellation of 2 Mistral amphibious ships they were to take delivery from France - thwarted by their internationally illegal annexation of Crimea.
Hong Kong joint handover-declaration agreement trashed; Taiwan preparing for a Chinese invasion; China building and arming military bases on reefs and islands in the international waters all across the South China Sea.
Both the US and the UK have Carrier led fleets in the South China Seas taunting China with freedom-of-navigation manoeuvres close to Chinese military installations The military build up on both sides continue at an alarming pace.
Call it what you like, the world is now in a nuclear arms race and the world is once again polarising. What could possibly go wrong?
China is mega peeved but still bellicose over the announcement that the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia have created a new alliance (dubbed AUKUS) to deter Chinese Imperialist ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region and the South China Seas.
The French are pissed that theyve lost out on a defence contract theyre well aware of the bigger game being played and theyre not exactly on the Chinese side of it.
He's hardly been made to look irrelevent, what makes you think that? Again, being snubbed in an economic contract is not a sign of the French ditching the west...
As to Russia, somewhat of a leap to bring them into this. Aside from their being perfectly permitted to be pissed at France walking out of a legally binding contract (as was found to be the case). On Crimea, more than slightly irrelevant to this whether you sympathise with Russia taking back its territory or not, given this is about China.
Taiwan has certainly not been preparing for a Chinese invasion.. as it has been told repeatedly by the Americans to do. Of course this ignores the fact China isnt capable of invading the island at present. It can bomb a fair whack of it but thats it.
Theyre not building anything in international waters, thats the point, theyre territorial waters of other countries.. hence the problem e.g. fiery cross reef or the paracel islands being claimed by others. Either way, its being done as a defensive (if seen as offensive) way in line with their A2AD policy.
As to build up, not really. the Americans continue their standard practice and China, whilst enlarging its military, is still inwardly focussed (as you can see by its defence spending) with its military being 2nd rate compared to Americas. Big, yes. Good? For the most part no. It has some shiny missiles and lots of conscripts but outside of that theres little thats very novel to it.
Polarised? Sure but that is hardly a new point to make, it having always been so and certainly since the mid 2000's. Just because the media has finally decided its worthy of writing a couple of ill informed articles on doesnt mean we're looking down the barrel of WWIII. The geopolitical environment is tense, somewhat toxic when it comes to Americas war on Russia and Iran, but its not anywhere near a flash point unless someone decides to seriously up the ante.
I honestly think it is just a lot of hot air but not a lot will happen. The West utterly relies on Chinese trade and without it would be crippled overnight, we are seeing just a taste of it with the supply chain issues.
It would certainly be an unpleasant economic meltdown if one of the 2 big boys did decide to go postal but i dont see it as being overly likely unless some game changer occurs. At least the US isnt staffed by complete morons, with a few hypernationalist hawks like under Bush and Trump anymore though.
Should be interesting to see what happens when China finally feels capable of exerting itself on matters other than its core redlines though. Or if the US (or China for that matter) decides to cross the others.. be it invading Taiwan (or recognising it etc.) or launching a cyber volley that isnt just irritating (such as previous ones). So many fun possibilities for those two to cause major problems for the other but at the end of the day China is friendless, bar DPRK and possibly Pakistan (even if the US's 'friends' are somewhat flaky) we can only hope that those in Beijing dont feel pushed into a corner like Japan did before WWII, although such a situation is still unlikely in ones view. Its the hawks who like pushing buttons thatre causes of concern.