Thoughts on German election 2021

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Starship Trooper
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021...deral_election

We now have the results for the election of the largest economy and possible driving force in the EU. It's very interesting.

Germany's long governing chancellor Angela Merkel is retiring and her party has come second to the former junior coalition partner the SDP. Interestingly neither party did actually well considering they both pulled around 25% each.

I think this matches the trend we also saw in Norway where "moderate" centre left parties can win but only by working together with more radical parties such as Greens, socialists and Even separatists.
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TCA2b
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Shame, the CDU isn't great, either.
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brjf
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Eh, I doubt much will change in Germany, but the EU will probably change its course.
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Starship Trooper
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(Original post by TCA2b)
Shame, the CDU isn't great, either.
Agreed

Considering the amount the state was ****ing with them , even basically going so far as to say they're a quasi terrorist organisation AFD did quite well to hold onto most of their votes .
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!Capercaillie
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Interesting that a lot of SPD support comes from older generations, while younger people favour Greens and the liberal FDP.

(Original post by Starship Trooper)
I think this matches the trend we also saw in Norway where "moderate" centre left parties can win but only by working together with more radical parties such as Greens, socialists and Even separatists.
The German Greens are relatively mainstream and only radical if you consider ideological positions like not trashing the environment to be an example of extremism.
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HansLuben
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Just be grateful they didn't vote in another Hitler.
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Starship Trooper
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(Original post by HansLuben)
Just be grateful they didn't vote in another Hitler.
Hey third time lucky right
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DSilva
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(Original post by Starship Trooper)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021...deral_election

We now have the results for the election of the largest economy and possible driving force in the EU. It's very interesting.

Germany's long governing chancellor Angela Merkel is retiring and her party has come second to the former junior coalition partner the SDP. Interestingly neither party did actually well considering they both pulled around 25% each.

I think this matches the trend we also saw in Norway where "moderate" centre left parties can win but only by working together with more radical parties such as Greens, socialists and Even separatists.
The current trend across European elections is that the rise of the populist right has stagnated and even starting to fall back in some places, while the centre left makes modest recoveries.

A country with PR like Germany that had let in hundreds of thousands of refugees/asylum seekers should have been ripe for a populist right party to advance. But they aren't. Which is great.
Last edited by DSilva; 3 weeks ago
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SHallowvale
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Don't have much of an opinion on it, but it's been interesting to watch how public opinion has changed over the last year. If this election took place at the start of the pandemic then the Union would have won by a landslide. It seems like Merkel's replacement is just extremely unpopular, hence why German politics have shifted leftwards. We can only speculate on what the next coalition will be like. 🤔
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Starship Trooper
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(Original post by DSilva)
The current trend across European elections is that the rise of the populist right has stagnated and even starting to fall back in some places, while the centre left makes modest recoveries.

A country with PR like Germany that had let in hundreds of thousands of refugees/asylum seekers should have been ripe for a populist right party to advance. But they aren't. Which is great.
Not so sure about that.

We have parties in power in Poland and Hungary, we are doing very well in Italy and also Spain and Sweden and some smaller countries eg Finland and Estonia. Le Pen is still the main opposition in France.

Whilst the AfD result was disappointing it was hardly surprising and they still have 80 MPs- who o would probably trade for our entire Conservative party. That said I do think Germany is for historical reasons probably a lost cause, at least for now. Indoctrination and self hatred can only go so far.
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Starship Trooper
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(Original post by SHallowvale)
Don't have much of an opinion on it, but it's been interesting to watch how public opinion has changed over the last year. If this election took place at the start of the pandemic then the Union would have won by a landslide. It seems like Merkel's replacement is just extremely unpopular, hence why German politics have shifted leftwards. We can only speculate on what the next coalition will be like. 🤔
It's actually crazy how tumultuous the polling has been ...

I think the obvious coalition would be a red green one which which will be one of the weakest in modern German history.
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SHallowvale
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(Original post by Starship Trooper)
It's actually crazy how tumultuous the polling has been ...

I think the obvious coalition would be a red green one which which will be one of the weakest in modern German history.
Not necessarily. Parties on opposite sides of the political spectrum have worked together in the past, particularly in grand coalitions. I'm willing to bet that the next coalition will form a majority.
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DSilva
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(Original post by Starship Trooper)
Not so sure about that.

We have parties in power in Poland and Hungary, we are doing very well in Italy and also Spain and Sweden and some smaller countries eg Finland and Estonia. Le Pen is still the main opposition in France.

Whilst the AfD result was disappointing it was hardly surprising and they still have 80 MPs- who o would probably trade for our entire Conservative party. That said I do think Germany is for historical reasons probably a lost cause, at least for now. Indoctrination and self hatred can only go so far.
There are now centre left parties in power in Spain, Portugal, Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and soon to be Germany. It's a long long way back from the dominance of the 90s and early noughties but there are patches of recovery, though admittedly uneven.

The populist right were also on the retreat in Netherlands and Norway.

Globally its fair to say populism has not had a good pandemic.
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SHallowvale
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(Original post by DSilva)
The populist right were also on the retreat in Netherlands and Norway.
In Denmark and Austria, too.
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Starship Trooper
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(Original post by DSilva)
There are now centre left parties in power in Spain, Portugal, Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and soon to be Germany. It's a long long way back from the dominance of the 90s and early noughties but there are patches of recovery, though admittedly uneven.

The populist right were also on the retreat in Netherlands and Norway.

.
Spain's not doing so well for the left- Podemos has collapsed and Vox (my favourite European party) is comfortably third in the polls and will probably be in the next right wing government.

Portugal (and Ireland) have never really had a right wing populist movement. Finlands second largest party is populist right and is doing well. A lot of these places like Sweden are having to have five party coalitions to keep out right wing populists. I'll give you Norway though at least to some extent (I'm not sure the progress party can be described accurately as RW populists(

Netherlands right wing populist party Forum for Democracy tripled their vote iirc.

(Original post by SHallowvale)
In Denmark and Austria, too.
True but interestingly this could largely be attributed to the mainstream parties there adopting tough immigration policies (,the Danish labour party and Austrian Peoples party respectively).

So it could be argued that tondo extent RW populism has been very successful there


Also by the way I'm being honest here I'm not trying to propagate anything.
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DSilva
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(Original post by Starship Trooper)
Spain's not doing so well for the left- Podemos has collapsed and Vox (my favourite European party) is comfortably third in the polls and will probably be in the next right wing government.

Portugal (and Ireland) have never really had a right wing populist movement. Finlands second largest party is populist right and is doing well. A lot of these places like Sweden are having to have five party coalitions to keep out right wing populists. I'll give you Norway though at least to some extent (I'm not sure the progress party can be described accurately as RW populists(

Netherlands right wing populist party Forum for Democracy tripled their vote iirc.


True but interestingly this could largely be attributed to the mainstream parties there adopting tough immigration policies (,the Danish labour party and Austrian Peoples party respectively).

So it could be argued that tondo extent RW populism has been very successful there


Also by the way I'm being honest here I'm not trying to propagate anything.
Bolsorano isn't doing too well. Looks set to pose next election.
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Napp
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To be fair, its not exactly novel, German parties regularly form coalition governments thanks to their voting system. Its not really symptomatic of much. Especially when we see how popular Merkel was and how limited the AFD and their ilk are. In the same vein as ukip theyre little more than pressure groups ion most regards.
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Starship Trooper
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(Original post by DSilva)
Bolsorano isn't doing too well. Looks set to pose next election.
Brazil isn't in Europe.

But yeah. Hopefully Bolsonaro will show Orange Man how it's done...


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DSilva
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(Original post by Starship Trooper)
Brazil isn't in Europe.

But yeah. Hopefully Bolsonaro will show Orange Man how it's done...


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I know, but a good sign that populism is on the decline in places. If polls are even remotely accurate he's going to get hammered.

Much like Trump, he shows that populists are great at campaigning, but pretty useless at governing.
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TCA2b
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Yes, because the establishment is simply going to remove its claws from its prize and just cede way.
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