North Shropshire by-election

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nulli tertius
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#61
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#61
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
I think it's fair to assume that the effect is less for a party surging upwards than it is for one going the other way. I agree it won't be an exact transfer of votes, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if ~10K Tory voters stayed at home yesterday.

LibDems will be trumpeting this as another turning point, but I suspect they have an awful lot of work to do in showing they aren't just another right wing party. Their coalition track record was awful. Clegg has revealed himself to be a despicable individual subsequently.
I think Davey can deal with this very shortly. At the new election he can rule out any deals with the Conservatives. That isn't going to be a hard ask. The Tories would be widely perceived as "a" (if not "the" loser) at an election in which Lib Dem support was needed. It is the opposite position too 2010.

One thing occurs to me. What PL football club do folk from North Shropshire support Liverpool or Everton or one of the Manchester clubs? Boris still has a very severe Liverpool problem.
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nulli tertius
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#62
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#62
(Original post by SHallowvale)
What makes something not a protest vote?
When it reflects a change in the political views of the electorate, a change in the political position of the candidates or parties or is a personal vote for a particular candidate.
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TCA2b
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#63
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#63
(Original post by Starship Trooper)
Protest vote. I doubt this signals a resurgence in the lib dem fortunes

That said it does show widespread dissatisfaction with the useless government. The Tories need to put Boris down and elect a proper conservative

No more green crap, high taxes and lockdowns. Start getting serious about immigration.
This. Very heavy/high handed and hypocritical government, coupled with confused messaging, and it's not helping their performance. Labour is hardly any different, so not surprised who attracted the protest vote.
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Fullofsurprises
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#64
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#64
(Original post by nulli tertius)
One thing occurs to me. What PL football club do folk from North Shropshire support Liverpool or Everton or one of the Manchester clubs? Boris still has a very severe Liverpool problem.
I would imagine Shropshire has the usual mix of Liverpool, Manchester and Chelsea fans. :rolleyes: However, I suspect that news story tactically dropped into the media yesterday about Johnson having attended parties had a bigger effect. I wonder who leaked that, Dominic, you know who we're talking about.
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Captain Haddock
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#65
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#65
(Original post by nulli tertius)
When it reflects a change in the political views of the electorate, a change in the political position of the candidates or parties or is a personal vote for a particular candidate.
Is "Boris Johnson is not fit to lead the country" not a political view, though?

And if Boris makes it to the next GE and loses badly are we going to say it was a 'protest election'? Surely any vote could be construed as a 'protest' against whatever grievance the electorate happened to have at the time.

I agree with Shadow that the distinction seems pretty weak. I'm not entirely convinced as to why a change in the political position of a party is a 'real' reason for changing one's vote, but a change in the public's perception of the party's competency is just a 'protest'. For one reason or another the electorate decided that the conservatives are not fit to represent them, and went with a different party.
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Fullofsurprises
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#66
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#66
(Original post by Captain Haddock)
I agree with Shadow that the distinction seems pretty weak. I'm not entirely convinced as to why a change in the political position of a party is a 'real' reason for changing one's vote, but a change in the public's perception of the party's competency is just a 'protest'. For one reason or another the electorate decided that the conservatives are not fit to represent them, and went with a different party.
There's always scepticism that the wilder by-election results will last, hence the convenience of dubbing them 'protest votes' - the obvious assumption being that the local electorate know that their vote in a by election won't change the government and they are therefore 'free' to be cantankerous. To be fair, a lot of LibDem by-election wins have subsequently returned to the original party at general election time, but not all.
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Crazed cat lady
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#67
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#67
(Original post by TCA2b)
This. Very heavy/high handed and hypocritical government, coupled with confused messaging, and it's not helping their performance. Labour is hardly any different, so not surprised who attracted the protest vote.
North Shropshire is not an area that you'll ever see a protest vote going to Labour.

However, we are starting to see a real swing in the polls in favour of Labour.
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SHallowvale
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#68
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#68
(Original post by Captain Haddock)
Is "Boris Johnson is not fit to lead the country" not a political view, though?

And if Boris makes it to the next GE and loses badly are we going to say it was a 'protest election'? Surely any vote could be construed as a 'protest' against whatever grievance the electorate happened to have at the time.

I agree with Shadow that the distinction seems pretty weak. I'm not entirely convinced as to why a change in the political position of a party is a 'real' reason for changing one's vote, but a change in the public's perception of the party's competency is just a 'protest'. For one reason or another the electorate decided that the conservatives are not fit to represent them, and went with a different party.
I was thinking this also, thanks!
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SHallowvale
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#69
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#69
(Original post by nulli tertius)
When it reflects a change in the political views of the electorate, a change in the political position of the candidates or parties or is a personal vote for a particular candidate.
What determines if these things have happened?

From the looks of it, it seems like the political opinions of North Shropshire voters have changed. You have interviews of life long Conservative voters having changed their opinion, no longer feeling that the party represents them or does a good job. If that isn't a "change in political views" then I don't know what is.
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Fullofsurprises
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#70
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#70
Lol.
https://twitter.com/mrjoshz/status/1471797335302807555
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nulli tertius
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#71
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#71
(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
There's always scepticism that the wilder by-election results will last, hence the convenience of dubbing them 'protest votes' - the obvious assumption being that the local electorate know that their vote in a by election won't change the government and they are therefore 'free' to be cantankerous. To be fair, a lot of LibDem by-election wins have subsequently returned to the original party at general election time, but not all.
Most that haven't, have been through personal votes though. Though have remained Liberal only so long as the original by-election winner remained.

Again, that isn't universally true. Liz Lynne held Rochdale in 1992 which had originally been won in a by-election by Cyril Smith and other Liberals won the successor seats to Selkirk, Roxburgh and Peebles won by the Boy David (Steel) in 1965.
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nulli tertius
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#72
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#72
(Original post by SHallowvale)
What determines if these things have happened?

From the looks of it, it seems like the political opinions of North Shropshire voters have changed. You have interviews of life long Conservative voters having changed their opinion, no longer feeling that the party represents them or does a good job. If that isn't a "change in political views" then I don't know what is.
Hindsight principally. Are local and general election results consistant with the old order or not.
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nulli tertius
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#73
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#73
(Original post by Captain Haddock)
Is "Boris Johnson is not fit to lead the country" not a political view, though?

And if Boris makes it to the next GE and loses badly are we going to say it was a 'protest election'? Surely any vote could be construed as a 'protest' against whatever grievance the electorate happened to have at the time.

I agree with Shadow that the distinction seems pretty weak. I'm not entirely convinced as to why a change in the political position of a party is a 'real' reason for changing one's vote, but a change in the public's perception of the party's competency is just a 'protest'. For one reason or another the electorate decided that the conservatives are not fit to represent them, and went with a different party.
Not in the context I am using the term. It would be a personal factor.

In the same way that you have described a judgment on Boris as a political view, all elections are decided on personal matters but it is people being elected. However it remains meaningful to distinguish when the primary reasons for voting are based of ideology and when they are based on personality.

I'm trying to think if we have ever had a protest general election. Other Westminster democracies have had. Perhaps 1895.
Last edited by nulli tertius; 1 month ago
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DSilva
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#74
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#74
I'm enjoying the "voters hate the tories for being too liberal so they voted for the Liberal Democrats" take.
Last edited by DSilva; 1 month ago
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nulli tertius
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#75
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#75
(Original post by DSilva)
I'm enjoying the "voters hate the tories for being too Liberal so they voted for the Liberal Democrats" take.
There are precedents. Michael Foot lost the 1983 general election to Thatcher because he wasn't socialist enough (according to the Bennites)
Last edited by nulli tertius; 1 month ago
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SHallowvale
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#76
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#76
(Original post by nulli tertius)
Hindsight principally. Are local and general election results consistant with the old order or not.
Right, so as I said we can't really declare this as a protest vote until the next election. If this is just a fluke and the Conservative regain NS in 2024 then I think we can consider this a protest vote (assuming the Conservatives don't make massive gains in 2024).
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nulli tertius
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#77
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#77
(Original post by SHallowvale)
Right, so as I said we can't really declare this as a protest vote until the next election. If this is just a fluke and the Conservative regain NS in 2024 then I think we can consider this a protest vote (assuming the Conservatives don't make massive gains in 2024).
We will know before then if the Liberals start making inroads on Shropshire Council (a unitary authority) or any of the town councils (which rank as parish councils) which are contested on party political lines.
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Fullofsurprises
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#78
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#78
(Original post by DSilva)
I'm enjoying the "voters hate the tories for being too liberal so they voted for the Liberal Democrats" take.
Given that most voters are basically centrist with mild inclinations to left or right, it is laughable that the radicalised extremists who now make up much of the Tory Party are interpreting this as a rejection of centrism. The electorate are taking time rumbling them (Johnson acted as a temporary figleaf for a more centrist approach) but I think the penny is now dropping that this is not the old and relatively safe Conservative Party but something else altogether.
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Starship Trooper
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#79
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#79
(Original post by nulli tertius)
Not I don't think so. This was a protest vote.

I think it does mean that student fees, entering the coalition and Brexit are all no longer on the average voters' lists of red flags. Politics has moved on. That is relevant for all parties. There is no mileage in complaining about what Thatcher, Blair or Cameron did.

However, John Redwood and our own Starship Trooper are not right. Whilst I would like a Tory leader who was actually a Conservative, this is irrelevant to what happened at the by-election. The Lib Dem woman could have campaigned on a policy of Farm Collectivisation, 24 hour Covid curfews and banning motor cars and she would have still won. The was about hubris, arrogance and sleaze.

The risk for the Conservatives is that Boris is now irrevocably tainted andthat it doesn't matter when the election is held. The risk is that if Boris is in charge, they will get a kicking from the public, regardless of anything else.
Eh I agree with you...

I think the average voter doesnt really care about corruption provided that they are doing a good job.
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Starship Trooper
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#80
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#80
(Original post by DSilva)
I'm enjoying the "voters hate the tories for being too liberal so they voted for the Liberal Democrats" take.
Depends what exactly you mean by liberal. But in any case, protest vote.

(Original post by Fullofsurprises)
Given that most voters are basically centrist with mild inclinations to left or right, it is laughable that the radicalised extremists who now make up much of the Tory Party are interpreting this as a rejection of centrism. The electorate are taking time rumbling them (Johnson acted as a temporary figleaf for a more centrist approach) but I think the penny is now dropping that this is not the old and relatively safe Conservative Party but something else altogether.
Yeah but you and people like you have been banging that drum for fifty years.

Along with ,"the Tories are going to privatise the NHS any minute now!!!1!!!"

Also there's nothing "Centrist" or "moderate" about the Tory lockdowns, net zero schtick and profligate spending.
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