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North Shropshire by-election

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Original post by Saracen's Fez
I'm not sure that's necessarily linked to the football team per se though, it's more complicated than that on Merseyside.

Shropshire most certainly isn't Merseyside though, politically or otherwise we're talking about Ellesmere not Ellesmere Port! :tongue:

Quite a lot of folks on Twitter speculating that the fact that N. Shrops is a very agricultural area may have something to do with this vote. Farmers and country people have been less than impressed by the government's conduct towards them post-Brexit.
Original post by Fullofsurprises
Quite a lot of folks on Twitter speculating that the fact that N. Shrops is a very agricultural area may have something to do with this vote. Farmers and country people have been less than impressed by the government's conduct towards them post-Brexit.

Potentially, certainly rural areas are fertile territory for the Lib Dems (and also Plaid/SNP in Scotland/Wales) because Labour aren't really that appealing but the Tories are doing everything they can to not appeal to farming communities.

Anecdotally we saw that in the Plaid Senedd campaign in May in Mid Wales, lots of farmers coming over from the Tories to Plaid because of the Tory agri policies, probably even more if it were a Westminster election instead.
Well I have to say, when I made this thread for what I thought would be a routine by-election I didn't think it would get over 100 posts! :lol:
(edited 2 years ago)
Original post by Saracen's Fez
Well I have to say, when I made this thread for what I thought would be a routine by-election I didn't think it would get over 100 posts! :lol:

It's a bit of an earthquake politically speaking. :yep:

Interesting.

"Access to healthcare and ambulance waiting times are a huge issue in the seat, with many voters telling the Guardian this was one of their main priorities when deciding how to vote.

All four of Shropshire’s community ambulance stations, including in Oswestry and Market Drayton, closed in October to much local outcry. According to a West Midlands ambulance service boss the county “ran out” of ambulances on one day in November because all vehicles were queueing outside hospitals.

A Lib Dem tally of the wording used on the many leaflets sent in the campaign said that while sleaze was mentioned 13 times, ambulances were raised 72 times, and farming on 41 occasions."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/17/a-toxic-cocktail-of-issues-how-north-shropshire-turned-against-the-tories
Original post by Saracen's Fez
Well I have to say, when I made this thread for what I thought would be a routine by-election I didn't think it would get over 100 posts! :lol:

I would not call it routine. If you exclude by-elections where there has been a significant independent or a defector (such as when Douglas Carswell defected to UKIP) it is the third largest swing in by-election history, after the SNP win in 1967 and the Lib Dem win in 1993. The latter when sleaze from individuals in the governing party was an issue.
Original post by mondays child
I would not call it routine. If you exclude by-elections where there has been a significant independent or a defector (such as when Douglas Carswell defected to UKIP) it is the third largest swing in by-election history, after the SNP win in 1967 and the Lib Dem win in 1993. The latter when sleaze from individuals in the governing party was an issue.

Pretty sure there are a few more. Respect in 2012 for example.
For the first time, perhaps ever, if seems things are finally starting to stick when it comes to Johnson.

Although voxpops aren't representative it was noticeable how many lifetime tory voters were calling him an idiot, clown, joke etc when interviewed.

He still has an appeal I suspect to redwall working class voters with his upbeat 'laddy' persona.
Original post by DSilva
For the first time, perhaps ever, if seems things are finally starting to stick when it comes to Johnson.

Although voxpops aren't representative it was noticeable how many lifetime tory voters were calling him an idiot, clown, joke etc when interviewed.

He still has an appeal I suspect to redwall working class voters with his upbeat 'laddy' persona.

The interesting question is whether this all happens too early. If the Tories can switch in 22/23 we may see their sins forgiven and another stonker of a victory. Ideally Labour needed him to go already or keep pushing on quite late.
Anyone who can replace Johnson who the public will actually like, though?

Only person who comes to mind is Rishi.
Original post by SHallowvale
Anyone who can replace Johnson who the public will actually like, though?

Only person who comes to mind is Rishi.

Yep.

And no doubt the public will frustratingly treat Sunak's govt as a new government, rather than one entering its 12th year, giving him a big boost.
Original post by SHallowvale
Anyone who can replace Johnson who the public will actually like, though?

Only person who comes to mind is Rishi.

As per May and Boris, we've seen that the public generally give a new leader the benefit of the doubt early on so as long as they have a reasonable approval+don't know rating.

I can't think of anybody hated or sufficiently uncharismatic that I'd be worried of the great office/former great office candidates (Truss, Hunt, Raab, Patel, Javid, Sunak) bar perhaps Javid (monotone) (Raab can't win, lacks a following).

I will say I'm not enthralled by any personally but Starmer is pretty average as opponents go and for all that the left dislike it, the Tories are not unpopular in policy terms so I suspect a new leader would win convincingly if reasonably competent.
Original post by Starship Trooper
@Cancelled Alice and @londonmyst

Why not the Reform Party?

For similar reasons to londonmyst, I want to lend my vote to the party that is most likely to damage the status quo. Also unsure of whether in my back water constituency the reform party will bother.
Ask me right before the next general election and my position might have changed,
Original post by Rakas21
As per May and Boris, we've seen that the public generally give a new leader the benefit of the doubt early on so as long as they have a reasonable approval+don't know rating.

I can't think of anybody hated or sufficiently uncharismatic that I'd be worried of the great office/former great office candidates (Truss, Hunt, Raab, Patel, Javid, Sunak) bar perhaps Javid (monotone) (Raab can't win, lacks a following).

I will say I'm not enthralled by any personally but Starmer is pretty average as opponents go and for all that the left dislike it, the Tories are not unpopular in policy terms so I suspect a new leader would win convincingly if reasonably competent.


Liz Truss gives off Theresa May vibes. Think she'd be beatable.

Hunt would shore up the tory South but wouldn't have the same appeal in the red wall. Can't see the party going for him either. Ditto Javid.

Raab or Patel would be absolute gifts to Labour.

Sunak would be tough to beat.
Original post by Cancelled Alice
For similar reasons to londonmyst, I want to lend my vote to the party that is most likely to damage the status quo. Also unsure of whether in my back water constituency the reform party will bother.
Ask me right before the next general election and my position might have changed,


The lib Dems are the status quo lol. Their leader is a "sir", their former leader works for mark Zuckerberg and they have over a hundred seats in the HoL.
Original post by Starship Trooper
The lib Dems are the status quo lol. Their leader is a "sir", their former leader works for mark Zuckerberg and they have over a hundred seats in the HoL.

Yeah sure, what I was really trying to get at was the parliamentary status quo. I’ve had enough of our current voting system and I’ve had enough of Con/Lab.
Original post by DSilva
Liz Truss gives off Theresa May vibes. Think she'd be beatable.

Hunt would shore up the tory South but wouldn't have the same appeal in the red wall. Can't see the party going for him either. Ditto Javid.

Raab or Patel would be absolute gifts to Labour.

Sunak would be tough to beat.

@Rakas21

I don't think starmer could win an election it would more be a case of the Tories losing if that makes sense.

Liz truss is being bigged up as basically Michael Gove with tits. Not quite as reta... Robotic as May but still pretty dreadful.

Javid/ hunt LMAO.

I think raab and Patel could beat labour. I think we'd see a repeat of the 1987 election.

Sunak is a chameleon. He could be a political titan or an absolute lightweight we just don't know. He's had a pretty easy run so far. Sure he's popular, but so was May!

I predict if there's a leadership election it will be between Sunak, Truss and Raab/ Patel with it being sunaks to lose. Truss will get the left wing tory vote, Raab/Patel the right wing vote and the lions share going to Sunak and Truss losing against both.
Johnson out. He has to go. For the sake of what is left of the ‘Conservative’ party. Sunak in.
Original post by DSilva
Liz Truss gives off Theresa May vibes. Think she'd be beatable.

Hunt would shore up the tory South but wouldn't have the same appeal in the red wall. Can't see the party going for him either. Ditto Javid.

Raab or Patel would be absolute gifts to Labour.

Sunak would be tough to beat.

Agree that I don't get the Truss appeal. She's the darling of the party because she got the prominent role it's difficult to fail at. Short of saying in advance that you'll get 100 trade agreements you can't really fail at it. Foreign is also a relatively easy role of you can avoid a warzone. Even Raab was not unpopular pre-Afghanistan. Though I'm not sure being neutral is a bad thing if the starting point is an 80 seat majority.

Hunt is a much more competent Truss I think. After the Murdoch affair made him look corrupt I'd find it difficult to vote though.

Javid I agree. He's monotone. Worst of the bunch.

Sunak I agree, he'd win with the parliamentary party and country convincingly. He has almost no idealogical grounding but is probably much more competent. Blair with a blue tie and brown face.

Raab and Patel I'm not sure I agree with you on. As Brexit has shown there is a large constituency outside London for social conservatism and serving in a Boris government, I doubt either of them are truly commited Thatcherites economically. They'd be polarising but I tend to think right now that if the vote polarises it probably favours the Tories over Labour. There are more than 29 seats where the Brx Party vote exceeds the lab majority over con and those are disproportionately small c votes (though winning that battle relies on lab and lib staying split in the more liberal southern areas). Like Hunt I'd struggle to vote for Patel though given her actions in Israel.

I suspect Sunak will win in R1 though amongst the MP's sadly.
Original post by Starship Trooper
@Rakas21

I don't think starmer could win an election it would more be a case of the Tories losing if that makes sense.

Liz truss is being bigged up as basically Michael Gove with tits. Not quite as reta... Robotic as May but still pretty dreadful.

Javid/ hunt LMAO.

I think raab and Patel could beat labour. I think we'd see a repeat of the 1987 election.

Sunak is a chameleon. He could be a political titan or an absolute lightweight we just don't know. He's had a pretty easy run so far. Sure he's popular, but so was May!

I predict if there's a leadership election it will be between Sunak, Truss and Raab/ Patel with it being sunaks to lose. Truss will get the left wing tory vote, Raab/Patel the right wing vote and the lions share going to Sunak and Truss losing against both.


I think Raab/Patel would be red meat to the tory base, but would have limited appeal to the wider public.

Raab seems quite gaffe prone and not really on top of his brief. Patel seems to get flustered quite easily.

I think Sunak is very Cameron/Osborney. Small state and relatively socially liberal.
(edited 2 years ago)
Original post by Starship Trooper
@Rakas21

I don't think starmer could win an election it would more be a case of the Tories losing if that makes sense.

Liz truss is being bigged up as basically Michael Gove with tits. Not quite as reta... Robotic as May but still pretty dreadful.

Javid/ hunt LMAO.

I think raab and Patel could beat labour. I think we'd see a repeat of the 1987 election.

Sunak is a chameleon. He could be a political titan or an absolute lightweight we just don't know. He's had a pretty easy run so far. Sure he's popular, but so was May!

I predict if there's a leadership election it will be between Sunak, Truss and Raab/ Patel with it being sunaks to lose. Truss will get the left wing tory vote, Raab/Patel the right wing vote and the lions share going to Sunak and Truss losing against both.

I doubt Truss would have the left wing vote, I think that and the establishment vote gets Sunak over the line very early. The left wing vote will go Hunt/Javid. Patel/Raab are probably the ERG and somewhat establishment option for anybody wavering. They'll have a better chance if it goes to the party albeit I suspect Sunak would win so convincingly that it would be a coronation.

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