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Should there be further lockdowns in the UK?

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Original post by Gillian My Heart
I can't see anything other than another lockdown now, highest cases since January it is not looking good

December 10th, 2021

'Britain’s top public health officials have advised ministers that “stringent national measures” need to be imposed by 18 December to avoid Covid hospitalisations surpassing last winter’s peak, according to documents leaked to the Guardian.'

Javid advised to take ‘stringent’ Covid measures within a week, leak reveals
Exclusive: Health officials say urgent action needed to avoid mass hospitalisations and overwhelming the NHS

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals
Original post by Supermature
December 10th, 2021

'Britain’s top public health officials have advised ministers that “stringent national measures” need to be imposed by 18 December to avoid Covid hospitalisations surpassing last winter’s peak, according to documents leaked to the Guardian.'

Javid advised to take ‘stringent’ Covid measures within a week, leak reveals
Exclusive: Health officials say urgent action needed to avoid mass hospitalisations and overwhelming the NHS

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

Lockdown by next week then by the look
Footnote to #185

The headline for the BBC link was later changed from Two vaccine doses don't stop you catching Omicron to Omicron: Three vaccine doses key for protection against variant

Why?

It's not what you say it's the way that you say it!
(edited 2 years ago)
Original post by Chadmiral Nelson
So what? If indeed it does only cause mild illness, or little to no serious illness and death, then the need for the vaccines will be redundant anyway.



Nonsense, there is no evolutionary advantage to a virus becoming more virulent and deadly. Such a variant would be very quickly outcompeted by the milder variant, as it would appear we are seeing Omicron do with Delta right now.

In terms of natural selection the virus that causes the most lung or respiratory damage and has the infected person violently coughing, sneezing, retching and fevers is the one that can best spread itself to other people and propagate it’s genetic material.

Milder versions that cause very slight throat irritation if any and slight coughing won’t spread much and will become extinct which would go against laws of natural selection.
(edited 2 years ago)
Original post by Supermature
Footnote to #185

The headline for the BBC link was later changed from Two vaccine doses don't stop you catching Omicron to Omicron: Three vaccine doses key for protection against variant

Why?

It's not what you say it's the way that you say it!

The catch 22 is that you still have to wait several months between jab 2 and booster an a lot of areas are prioritising the booster over second jabs meaning those yet to have a second jab are waiting longer. It could be late next summer before everyone has had 3 doses. No one is to blame it’s just not possible to speed up production of vaccine. They’re working as fast as possible.

But what can be done in meantime is closing the borders for at least the next 12 months and allowing overseas travel only in exceptional cases with mandatory quarantine. As a sovereign nation we can do this now. Also a lockdown will be needed.
With the Delta driven daily case rate now edging towards 60,000 and with Omicron cases doubling every two to three days, the single most pressing question for the Government is: can they afford to wait until after Christmas to bring in the 'stringent national measures' that public health officials say are needed before December 18th? (see #187)

Given the furore over Downing Street parties last year, trust in the Government is at a very low ebb. For that reason alone, compliance with any last minute clampdown over Christmas will be at best patchy. Christmas is inordinately important to many families. Better to get that over with and then have a short, time limited but 'stringent' period afterwards rather than a mix of half measures that have only a marginal impact. This is essentially the main point I have been making throughout this thread. The next question would be: what particular measures would work best? The term 'lockdown' merely implies a tailored mix of legally enforced restrictions. There are as many kinds of 'lockdown' as there are Covid-19 variants.
Original post by Ambitious1999
In terms of natural selection the virus that causes the most lung or respiratory damage and has the infected person violently coughing, sneezing, retching and fevers is the one that can best spread itself to other people and propagate it’s genetic material.

Milder versions that cause very slight throat irritation if any and slight coughing won’t spread much and will become extinct which would go against laws of natural selection.


Explain then why the invariably mild common cold is the most successful virus in Earth's history?
Original post by Supermature
The headline for the BBC link was later changed from Two vaccine doses don't stop you catching Omicron to Omicron: Three vaccine doses key for protection against variant


Ah typical mainstream media.

"Oh no no no, it's far too early to conclude that Omicron is more mild than Delta, we've only known about it for two weeks, despite mounting evidence from South Africa that it IS far milder and not a single death has yet been linked to it anywhere on Earth.......... but we CAN blithely assert without providing any evidence whatsoever besides Pfizer's own press releases (which also provides no evidence) that 3 jabs WILL be effective against the variant......."

Bull***t. All of it. Our media and government have become nothing more than a marketing wing of big pharma at this point.
(edited 2 years ago)
Original post by Supermature
With the Delta driven daily case rate now edging towards 60,000 and with Omicron cases doubling every two to three days, the single most pressing question for the Government is: can they afford to wait until after Christmas to bring in the 'stringent national measures' that public health officials say are needed before December 18th? (see #187)

Given the furore over Downing Street parties last year, trust in the Government is at a very low ebb. For that reason alone, compliance with any last minute clampdown over Christmas will be at best patchy. Christmas is inordinately important to many families. Better to get that over with and then have a short, time limited but 'stringent' period afterwards rather than a mix of half measures that have only a marginal impact. This is essentially the main point I have been making throughout this thread. The next question would be: what particular measures would work best? The term 'lockdown' merely implies a tailored mix of legally enforced restrictions. There are as many kinds of 'lockdown' as there are Covid-19 variants.


No the thing thr government SHOULD be looking at is thr death rates and hospitalisation not just cases. We have to learn to live with the new variants weather people lile it or not. The charts thry show they are just estimating thr trend of positive or negative correlation between rates and deaths what about all thr 'covid' deaths which are not directly from the variant. They never report that. Nothing is ever going to change and it is scandalous but again doesn't matter whivh government it is it will be the same. The fact working from home helps prevent deaths. No it doesn't. What about suicide rates? mental health issues? It's just so the world can be moved to an online world quicker and the death of yhe high Street being advanced. Also they just want to control us. They say they're bothered but I have not heard of a situation where lockdown has helped someone who had had covid. I'm not denying it is real what i am mad about is people jumping on the bandwagon of oh lockdowns do help. Help who? Also the data we are showed isn't 100% accurate but they want us to believe it is. What will happen is we will open up in summers and closr down in winters. They say its not viable of course it isn't and the country will go broke soon but you know 'covid' and everything.
Original post by Chadmiral Nelson
Ah typical mainstream media.

"Oh no no no, it's far too early to conclude that Omicron is more mild than Delta, we've only known about it for two weeks, despite mounting evidence from South Africa that it IS far milder and not a single death has yet been linked to it anywhere on Earth.......... but we CAN blithely assert without providing any evidence whatsoever besides Pfizer's own press releases (which also provides no evidence) that 3 jabs WILL be effective against the variant......."

Bull***t. All of it. Our media and government have become nothing more than a marketing wing of big pharma at this point.

^^^Exactly this.
first death from omicron has been recorded :eek: but i think it was inevitable
Once again, the Government appears to be making the error of placing too much emphasis on the current Covid-19 vaccines.

Yesterday evening (December 12th, 2021) the Prime Minister openly stated that two doses of any of the vaccines were no longer enough, but that the third, 'booster' dose still offered significant protection; hence the decision to try and offer all adults a booster shot before the end of the month, despite the enormous logistical problems involved, the impact that this will have on other NHS services and the extreme pressure it will place on NHS staff and volunteers.

Although these are early days, we may have reason to hope that the Omicron variant is less likely than Delta to cause very serious illness and death. However, the immediate problem is hospitalisations. The sheer number cases and potential admissions over the coming weeks is what matters most at this point in time. There is already strong anecdotal evidence that people are succumbing to Omicron, even after receiving the boosters:

How Omicron appears to be infecting Britain – despite the vaccine: Anecdotal reports suggest mass outbreaks after social gatherings – even among people who have had a Covid booster

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/12/how-omicron-appears-to-be-infecting-britain-despite-the-vaccine

Vaccines alone are not going to alleviate the pressure on the NHS. Measures more stringent than the recently introduced 'Plan B' are almost certainly going to be required. There is little chance of these gaining public acceptance if implemented before Christmas. Once people have had the opportunity to meet their friends and family - even if that means accepting a considerable degree of risk - they will probably be more amenable to corrective measures afterwards. As I have said before, these will bring the maximum benefit for the minimum disruption if they are strict, applicable to all, and implemented over a short, clearly defined period of time. The sooner the Government is open and honest about this, the better for all of us.
Original post by Spelunker
first death from omicron has been recorded :eek: but i think it was inevitable

Technically a death with omicron, but we know what you meant :smile: As usual, no details about the age or any pre-existing medical conditions of the deceased, so the Prime Minister can conveniently argue that one death "proves" that we need to abandon the idea that omicron is a "milder" variant.
I think we should put the scientists in lockdown :biggrin: Imagine if every time they started banging on about more restrictions, they got locked up for a few weeks instead.
(edited 2 years ago)
Original post by Megacent
I think we should put the scientists in lockdown :biggrin: Imagine if every time they started banging on about more restrictions, they got locked up for a few weeks instead.

That wouldn't be a bad idea tbh - pretty shameful that Whitty and Valance didn't stand up with Boris at a press conference to justify the booster jab decision instead of us just having a pre-recorded message and the ensuing (and predictable) chaos this morning.

I remember at the start of July the doom-mongers said that if we relaxed restrictions over the summer then we'd see 50,000 cases, then 100,000 then 250,000, then finally we would all die. Except that cases bounced around between 20 - 30,000 for about 3 months until the schools went back, then they rose steadily through 40,000 to 50,000 just before half-term, then back to 40,000 when the schools closed for half-term, then rising again once the schools re-opened. But then once the government tie their own hands by saying they won't close schools whatever the circumstances, the rate just goes up and up, and the only measures that can be taken are the ineffective ones.

Now I have to wear a mask just to pop to the shops for 10 minutes to buy a loaf of bread and a tin of cat food, but mysteriously it's ok for 30 children to sit maskless in an air-tight classroom for 30 minutes (or an hour) coughing over each other, then they take the infection home to their working-from-home parents who've been shut in all day with the windows closed, so that they can infect the entire family, just in time to kill Granny for Christmas!
Original post by davros
That wouldn't be a bad idea tbh - pretty shameful that Whitty and Valance didn't stand up with Boris at a press conference to justify the booster jab decision instead of us just having a pre-recorded message and the ensuing (and predictable) chaos this morning.

I remember at the start of July the doom-mongers said that if we relaxed restrictions over the summer then we'd see 50,000 cases, then 100,000 then 250,000, then finally we would all die. Except that cases bounced around between 20 - 30,000 for about 3 months until the schools went back, then they rose steadily through 40,000 to 50,000 just before half-term, then back to 40,000 when the schools closed for half-term, then rising again once the schools re-opened. But then once the government tie their own hands by saying they won't close schools whatever the circumstances, the rate just goes up and up, and the only measures that can be taken are the ineffective ones.

Now I have to wear a mask just to pop to the shops for 10 minutes to buy a loaf of bread and a tin of cat food, but mysteriously it's ok for 30 children to sit maskless in an air-tight classroom for 30 minutes (or an hour) coughing over each other, then they take the infection home to their working-from-home parents who've been shut in all day with the windows closed, so that they can infect the entire family, just in time to kill Granny for Christmas!


Was that Neil Ferguson who came out with that? It's worth taking a look at how consistently wrong his predictions on various diseases have been over the years.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2005/aug/22/health.russia

"The Department of Health's contingency plan states anywhere between 21,500 and 709,000 deaths could be expected in Britain from a bird flu pandemic. The worldwide death toll could be as high as 200 million, according to some experts. Around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak," said Prof Ferguson. "There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably."

So while Fearmonger Ferguson predicted 200 million deaths, in the real world I think we've only had a few hundred or few thousand worldwide. How on earth did he retain any credibility after such a monumental blunder? He drastically over estimated the amount of deaths from swine flu, and foot and mouth as well. And as far as I know Ferguson still hasn't apologized for the 100,000 cases by summer thing, even though the governments own data quite clearly shows that we didn't get anywhere near that number! If these scientists can't even admit when they are wrong or have been caught out, why should I trust them?
(edited 2 years ago)
Original post by Megacent
Was that Neil Ferguson who came out with that? It's worth taking a look at how consistently wrong his predictions on various diseases have been over the years.



Pretty sure it was!

Also interesting to note we've got a bit of a bird flu thing going on in this country at the moment, so things could get even more interesting soon!
Support for the view that we won't need another lockdown comes from a major study in South Africa. We may not have the same demographic as SA, but the findings are still important. From today's article:

"Omicron is likely to be 23 per cent less severe than delta with vaccines still offering good protection, the first major real-world study into the new variant has shown. A study of more than 78,000 omicron cases in South Africa recorded between Nov 15 and Dec 7 also found that the Pfizer jab still offers 70 per cent protection against hospitalisation after two doses.

The research showed that, compared with the first Wuhan strain, the virus led to 29 per cent fewer admissions to hospital, with 23 per cent fewer hospital admissions compared with delta. Far fewer people also needed intensive care from omicron, with just five per cent of cases admitted to ICU compared with 22 per cent of delta patients"

Experts at Discovery Health, South Africa’s largest private health insurer, who compiled the data, said that although there were high numbers of breakthrough infections in people who had been vaccinated, cases appeared to be less severe, which they said was also backed up by anecdotal evidence from doctors on the ground.

The Chief Executive Officer at Discovery Health said, “If you look at the proportion of patients admitted to high care in ICU for severe illness, across the first three waves, the proportion of patients in high care and ICU collectively exceeds 30 per cent, goes up to 35 per cent, whereas you can see in this omicron period, only about 13 per cent.So the data is correlating with the anecdotal feedback. And so it's this early point we believe there is hope that the severity is lower. What is clear is that vaccinated individuals are experiencing milder infections in general. We are hearing it’s primarily the unvaccinated that are requiring admission and oxygen in hospital.You can see that the excess natural deaths are still significantly lower than in previous waves, despite the rapid growth in the number of infections during this omicron period.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/14/omicron-less-severe-covid-delta-variant-two-vaccine-jabs-give/
(edited 2 years ago)
Original post by harrysbar
What is clear is that vaccinated individuals are experiencing milder infections in general. We are hearing it’s primarily the unvaccinated that are requiring admission and oxygen in hospital.You can see that the excess natural deaths are still significantly lower than in previous waves, despite the rapid growth in the number of infections during this omicron period.”


And yet the latest and previous string of official Gov't Vaccine Surveillance Reports very clearly shows that it is the fully vaccinated community that, above certain age groups (typically 40yrs +) are making up the majority of the Covid Cases, hospitalisations and Covid Deaths.

We might expect the tightly controlled MSM to put it's own spin on things to find some way to demonise the unvaccinated but it won't wash I'm afraid.
That's why they try to deflect and place focus suddenly on just the people in the ICUs rather than the more honest approach of looking at the Cases, Hospitalisations and Deaths.

Here's the truth. The tables from the Vaccine Surveillance Report for weeks 41-44 of 2021 to which I have calculated and added the

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1032859/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_45.pdf







So the fully vaxxed people are the vast majority of Covid cases for people aged 18 yrs and over, up to 91% !!

The fully vaxxed people are the vast majority of Covid hospitalisations for people aged 50 yrs and over, up to 88% !!

And the fully vaxxed people are the vast majority of Covid Deaths for people aged 50 yrs and over, up to 87%!!


This hasn't changed too much in the very latest Vaccine Surveillance Report covering weeks 45-48 of 2021:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1039677/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_49.pdf



So here again the fully vaccinated make up the vast majority of all Covid cases from ages 18yrs and over, up to 88% !



And here we see the fully vaccinated people are the vast majority of all the Covid Deaths for ages 40 yrs and over.


Small wonder the MSM are trying desperately to just focus on the tiny few people sitting in ICUs and hide away these wider figures !
Original post by PilgrimOfTruth
And yet the latest and previous string of official Gov't Vaccine Surveillance Reports very clearly shows that it is the fully vaccinated community that, above certain age groups (typically 40yrs +) are making up the majority of the Covid Cases, hospitalisations and Covid Deaths.

We might expect the tightly controlled MSM to put it's own spin on things to find some way to demonise the unvaccinated but it won't wash I'm afraid.
That's why they try to deflect and place focus suddenly on just the people in the ICUs rather than the more honest approach of looking at the Cases, Hospitalisations and Deaths.

Here's the truth. The tables from the Vaccine Surveillance Report for weeks 41-44 of 2021 to which I have calculated and added the

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1032859/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_45.pdf







So the fully vaxxed people are the vast majority of Covid cases for people aged 18 yrs and over, up to 91% !!

The fully vaxxed people are the vast majority of Covid hospitalisations for people aged 50 yrs and over, up to 88% !!

And the fully vaxxed people are the vast majority of Covid Deaths for people aged 50 yrs and over, up to 87%!!


This hasn't changed too much in the very latest Vaccine Surveillance Report covering weeks 45-48 of 2021:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1039677/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_49.pdf



So here again the fully vaccinated make up the vast majority of all Covid cases from ages 18yrs and over, up to 88% !



And here we see the fully vaccinated people are the vast majority of all the Covid Deaths for ages 40 yrs and over.


Small wonder the MSM are trying desperately to just focus on the tiny few people sitting in ICUs and hide away these wider figures !

We have already established that you don’t understand how to interpret the data. Just repeating yourself over and over again on the same point does not change that. It has been explained to you why fully vaccinated people make up most deaths but you choose not to listen

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