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    China's inflation is falling quickly although it was very high a few months ago, it has fallen enough to allow them to start cutting their interest rates.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?...CNCPIYOY%3AIND
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    (Original post by Electric_Dreams)
    I'd be inclined to agree with this, it's not always so simple as 'negative numbers are bad' :rolleyes:

    And back to the thread, to be fair 40 years is a long time, especially in economics.

    Not in trade.

    A defeit means that we rely on other companies and that our economy depends on global inflation, not to mention that a surplus means more money to spend..
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    (Original post by Electric_Dreams)
    I'd be inclined to agree with this, it's not always so simple as 'negative numbers are bad' :rolleyes:

    And back to the thread, to be fair 40 years is a long time, especially in economics.

    Not in trade.

    A defeit means that we rely on other companies and that our economy depends on global inflation, not to mention that a surplus means more money to spend..

    A small surplus is very healthy.
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    (Original post by Howard)
    You're about 4 months behind. It's actually closer to 4%. In fact, China's economy is now cooling at such a rate that the government announced a $600 billion stimulus package yesterday.

    Ok chinas population is 4 times higher than americas, and america announced a $700 billion bailout whereas China announced a $600 billion stimulus.

    And last time i checked a low CPI was a good thing:rolleyes:
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    (Original post by Howard)
    You're about 4 months behind. It's actually closer to 4%. In fact, China's economy is now cooling at such a rate that the government announced a $600 billion stimulus package yesterday.

    Ok chinas population is 4 times higher than americas, and america announced a $700 billion bailout whereas China announced a $600 billion stimulus.

    And last time i checked a low CPI was a good thing:rolleyes: You're forgetting that the although it has increased, it is increasing at a decreasing rate..
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    I'll not deny that, but a deficit is not all that bad, especially depending on what is being imported.
    For example a high volume of imports of raw materials could stimulate production and be very postive to the economy in numerous ways.
    At the same time a surplus or deficit both indicate reliance upon other countries and connections in the world economy. Really to stop becoming a world economy we would have to use more protectionist policies, and well... that just starts off another debate... therefore it's all a bit irrelevant in that respect... I think.

    Sorry if that made no sense and/or was rubbish but I'm just ridiculously tired tonight. :o:
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    Their analysis is bad, corruption is a deep rooted problem. Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Nigeria will never rise that high due to institutional problems. These figures strongly correlate with the populations of these countries. I find it difficult to believe these figures. The Philippines and Egypt is just hilarious. It's nearly 2010 already folks...and Egypt can't even feed itself

    China looks a beast. I'm a little startled by the difference between India and China, India is supposed to of caught China up by mid-century and eclipsed it.
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    (Original post by Collingwood)
    China has CPI of almost 9%. It is headed for a crash.

    As for this trade surplus nonsense, it is simply bad economics to regard trade deficits as somehow 'worse' than surpluses.
    You're right if you mean that he's forgetting the capital inflow. Betting on the American trade deficit being sustained by further inflows is not exactly a wise bet... and it correlates inversely with the increasing maturity of domestic markets of the biggest investors in America - China and the Middle East. And you're way behind the curve on Chinese CPI. Go read what happened to commodities in August. On top, the CPI argument for currency inflation is irrelevant when the currency has so much buying pressure that the central bank finds it hard to maintain an annual revaluation vs. the USD at low double digit percentage points. Have you seen how fast the Chinese FX reserves are growing? And btw, if you're talking about a stock market crash... that happened a couple of months ago.
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    (Original post by Student2806)
    This is Goldman Sachs' projection of the 20 largest economies in 2050.

    GDPs in trillions of US Dollars.
    1. China $70.710 ~ Will probably be more level with the US, and 20 trillion smaller than that.
    2. USA $38.514 ~ Will be a bit higher
    3. India $37.688 ~ Just about right
    4. Brazil $11.366 Bit higher
    5. Mexico $9.340 ~ Not that high, surely?
    6. Russia $8.580 ~ Higher
    7. Indonesia $7.010 ~ Lower
    8. Japan $6.677 ~ Higher
    9. UK $5.133 ~ Higher, has potential if it has a decent government
    10. Germany ~ $5.024
    11. Nigeria $4.640 ~ Lower, much lower, due to continued political and economic instability in much of Africa.
    12. France $4.592 ~ Higher
    13. South Korea $4.083 ~ Higher
    14. Turkey $3.943 ~ Higher
    15. Vietnam $3.607 ~ Lower
    16. Canada $3.149 ~ Higher
    17. Philippines $3.010 ~ Much lower
    18. Italy $2.950 ~ Higher
    19. Iran $2.663 ~ About right
    20. Egypt $2.602 ~ About right, maybe higher.

    I have to say, I'm quite surprised and wanted to know what others thought.

    - I'm shocked at the figures for developed nations. The US economy in 2007 was only $13.8 trillion, and yet it's going to treble in size, despite being on the verge of recession and $10 trillion in debt? The same goes for the European nations - the UK's GDP is going to nearly double despite us being nearly broke :eek:
    - Also surprised Brazil is that high up, and Indonesia at 7
    - I thought that with Nigeria and Egypt in the top 20, South Africa would figure as well.

    Any opinions?
    Does this take inflation into account?

    I also doubt that the world economies will grow to such a scale. It simply isn't sustainable without expansion into space, and it wouldn't get so far into the trillions anyway. It assumes unlimited growth, which simply won't happen.
    There should really be an explanation of how this was gathered. I don't believe that some of those developing nations can overtake more developed ones. There will be some hiccup, some unforeseen circumstances and pre-existing conditions which will work against their growth. The world cannot sustain such economic growth. Yes, most of the economies mentioned will grow to a certain point. No, they won't grow according to such long-term projections, but they do outline basic trends. I'd trust them up to the point of 2020, which is when we might start to see shortages of certain basic materials and perhaps another major world crisis. Definitely a shift in the balance of power This is effectively the future which WE will forge, this generation. WE will determine it.
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    (Original post by RyanT)
    Their analysis is bad, corruption is a deep rooted problem. Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Nigeria will never rise that high due to institutional problems. These figures strongly correlate with the populations of these countries. I find it difficult to believe these figures. The Philippines and Egypt is just hilarious. It's nearly 2010 already folks...and Egypt can't even feed itself

    China looks a beast. I'm a little startled by the difference between India and China, India is supposed to of caught China up by mid-century and eclipsed it.
    I agree with what you said, except for Brazil. It has some great potential.
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    (Original post by Bateman)
    Ok chinas population is 4 times higher than americas, and america announced a $700 billion bailout whereas China announced a $600 billion stimulus.

    And last time i checked a low CPI was a good thing:rolleyes:
    Are you thick or something?

    I was merely pointing out the errors in Collingwood's post.

    He stated that CPI was 9%. I corrected him by stating it is closer to 4% (I'm very well aware that a lower CPI is almost always better than a higher one - and unlike you I didn't have to check that:rolleyes: )

    Collingwood also stated that he thinks China is headed for a crash. Based on his CPI statement I assume he meant that the economy was overheating and therefore about to blow a gasket. I corrected him here by pointing out that China's economy is rapidly cooling - hence the government's stimulus package. So, I'm right again aren't I?

    Now, unless you have something of real relevance to say I think you should belt up.
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    Some of will be dead by then!
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    (Original post by CHAMON)
    Some of will be dead by then!
    You'll have to ellaborate for anyone to understand any of that.
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    I think economic growth is more certain in this day and age than it has ever been. Barring some sort of radical change in economies/technology/whatever, or some sort of major environmental or resource disaster, population will be the major factor in GDP once countries start being able to employ their people in high value jobs.

    People forget that although GDP is a measure of a country's production, it works in a bit of a cycle, when you have people beginning to earn more, they spend more, creating more jobs for more people, and the more people you have the higher the end GDP will be (Long-run Keynsian/Neo-classical theory). As long as theres demand for goods, in the majority of cases, eventually supply will be met. Certainly theres a lot of barriers to growth, but I think a lot of people hope by 2050 we'll have sorted it out somehow. Personally, I think by that time, due to massive overpopulation, we'll have some sort of environmental catastrophe that possibly will revolutionize our economies, making GDP a void figure. But thats being optimistic, 2050 is not that far away. It'll take quite a event to get us off this self-destructive path we're currently on.
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    Why isn't the UAE featured in the list? Just wondering in a general, elementary sense really, because I don't think I've noticed the UAE featuring in any other lists of large, rapidly growing economies either. Apologies for my ignorance if the answer to this is obvious and well known!
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    (Original post by CommerceDressedAsRebellion)
    Why isn't the UAE featured in the list? Just wondering in a general, elementary sense really, because I don't think I've noticed the UAE featuring in any other lists of large, rapidly growing economies either. Apologies for my ignorance if the answer to this is obvious and well known!
    The UAE is currently at 110th place in the world (although its per capita GDP is very high at around $49,000) so it's difficult to see how it might jump 90 places.
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    (Original post by Howard)
    Are you thick or something?

    I was merely pointing out the errors in Collingwood's post.

    He stated that CPI was 9%. I corrected him by stating it is closer to 4% (I'm very well aware that a lower CPI is almost always better than a higher one - and unlike you I didn't have to check that:rolleyes: )

    Collingwood also stated that he thinks China is headed for a crash. Based on his CPI statement I assume he meant that the economy was overheating and therefore about to blow a gasket. I corrected him here by pointing out that China's economy is rapidly cooling - hence the government's stimulus package. So, I'm right again aren't I?

    Now, unless you have something of real relevance to say I think you should belt up.


    And why does decreasing inflation cool your economy?

    You could have used a better word than cooling, i assumed you were saying that their economy is heading for a crash.
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    (Original post by Electric_Dreams)
    I'll not deny that, but a deficit is not all that bad, especially depending on what is being imported.
    For example a high volume of imports of raw materials could stimulate production and be very postive to the economy in numerous ways.
    At the same time a surplus or deficit both indicate reliance upon other countries and connections in the world economy. Really to stop becoming a world economy we would have to use more protectionist policies, and well... that just starts off another debate... therefore it's all a bit irrelevant in that respect... I think.

    Sorry if that made no sense and/or was rubbish but I'm just ridiculously tired tonight. :o:

    Ideally a country wants to have a small and healthy surplus. however any country would prefer a large surplus (china) to a karge defecit (zimbabwe lol).

    the hith volume of raw materials being imported in your argument would create a consumer good which is then EXPORTED

    But yes you're right, it does depend on the conomy:p:
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    (Original post by Bateman)
    And why does decreasing inflation cool your economy?

    You could have used a better word than cooling, i assumed you were saying that their economy is heading for a crash.
    Just go away. It's not my fault if you're too thick to understand my posts.
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    (Original post by Howard)
    The UAE is currently at 110th place in the world (although its per capita GDP is very high at around $49,000) so it's difficult to see how it might jump 90 places.
    Yeah, sorry about that, you're right, it is difficult to see how such unlikely event would occur, isn't it? Like it was difficult for you to see the point of my question, and the needlessness for sarcasm? Yeah, probably as difficult as that.

    I obviously wasn't aware that the UAE was 110th globally, and wasn't in any way suggesting that it should 'jump 90 places'. The purpose of my question was merely to find out WHY it doesn't feature in the top 20, not what position it's currently and how difficult it would be to comprehend such a marked progression up a world economy rankings table, if one was to occur.
 
 
 
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