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    (Original post by sean43)
    As I have repeatidly said, the events will occur in January when the mega increase money supply as filtered down the the actual public. You can laugh all you want, the dollar will be replaced by a new reserve currency fairly soon. Fiat money systems always fail in the long run, and this one is coming to an end.
    Which currency is going to replace the dollar? The Pound, Euro, Yen, RMB? It should be crystal clear by now that despite the US's role in the current global economic crisis the dollar is becoming stronger BECAUSE in these difficult times investors are flocking towards solid and stable entities such as gold and yes, the dollar. The United States still is and will continue to be the global economic leader for at least the next 30 years and during that time the dollar will remain the de-facto currency of the global market.
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    (Original post by Howard)
    LOL! Do you live in a cave without any access to the outside world?

    Have you not noticed that the dollar is actually trading at a 6 1/2 year high against sterling ($1.47/pound) and has gained massive ground against the euro (now $1.26/euro) People are fleeing equities, commodities are nosediving and the dollar is benefitting mightily as a result. It's a safe haven. You must be the only person in the world who predicts an imminent dollar collapse!
    I'm sorry but I don't believe for a second that the dollar is appreciating because it is, as you say, a "safe haven". Now, while I do not share the extreme opinion of the OP, I think you are talking an equal amount of twoddle.

    The dollar has appreciated quite strongly and violently and to an extent, that is justified if only based on the fact that a) the decoupling view has been thoroughly discarded b) esp. vs. the EUR and GBP, the US was not alone in experiencing the quite ridiculous effect of posting the entire housing market as collateral to a debt driven spending binge. In a way, the UK will be probably come off worse.

    My main reason to argue this is that the run up in the dollar is largely down to a global "short squeeze" on it. Not only does the US borrow cash from overseas in USD, as the dollar is the world reserve currency, but infact, people overseas also borrow in USD in the wholesale markets. What's happened in the credit crunch is that there has been a huge freeze up of lending in the interbank markets and so this creates a big throttling effect on the global flow of USD, hence a price rally.

    It is merely an indication of a new phase of the global crisis, which is that in the first instance you have liquidation of dollar assets in the US, but over the past 3 months there has been a mass liquidation of assets held by the US. The dollar rally is a repatriation rally, aided by the above points I made. Anyone who thinks that overnight, the dollar has become no longer a weak currency in its own right and thinks it is a "safe haven" is kidding themselves, frankly, and I will happily trade this view with you.
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    (Original post by CityMonkey)
    I'm sorry but I don't believe for a second that the dollar is appreciating because it is, as you say, a "safe haven". Now, while I do not share the extreme opinion of the OP, I think you are talking an equal amount of twoddle.

    The dollar has appreciated quite strongly and violently and to an extent, that is justified if only based on the fact that a) the decoupling view has been thoroughly discarded b) esp. vs. the EUR and GBP, the US was not alone in experiencing the quite ridiculous effect of posting the entire housing market as collateral to a debt driven spending binge. In a way, the UK will be probably come off worse.

    My main reason to argue this is that the run up in the dollar is largely down to a global "short squeeze" on it. Not only does the US borrow cash from overseas in USD, as the dollar is the world reserve currency, but infact, people overseas also borrow in USD in the wholesale markets. What's happened in the credit crunch is that there has been a huge freeze up of lending in the interbank markets and so this creates a big throttling effect on the global flow of USD, hence a price rally.

    It is merely an indication of a new phase of the global crisis, which is that in the first instance you have liquidation of dollar assets in the US, but over the past 3 months there has been a mass liquidation of assets held by the US. The dollar rally is a repatriation rally, aided by the above points I made. Anyone who thinks that overnight, the dollar has become no longer a weak currency in its own right and thinks it is a "safe haven" is kidding themselves, frankly, and I will happily trade this view with you.
    Well, maybe you're right. You seem better informed about it than I am. I don't think I'm talking an equal amout of twoddle as the OP though. Out of control inflation and a complete dollar collapse is not on the menu for January.
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    (Original post by Howard)
    Well, maybe you're right. You seem better informed about it than I am. I don't think I'm talking an equal amout of twoddle as the OP though. Out of control inflation and a complete dollar collapse is not on the menu for January.
    The reason I use the word twoddle is that if this phase of the crisis continues, i.e. liquidation of US assets held abroad, the overseas debtors of the US will soon need to repatriate their own assets to trigger off Keynesian programmes of market restabilisation. All their assets happen to be held in USD (e.g. China's stock market has crashed over 50% YTD, and they hold 2tn USD in FX reserves...and the reason they will lend to the USD at almost no interest right now is because they have realised that they can't keep their economic growth with a US in recession, until it hits them so bad they have no other choice). The cause of the current rally in the dollar could equally end up being its Achilles' heel.

    A mass liquidation of foreign assets held in USD would bring the realisation of the possibility of a run on the dollar a lot more likely than you are giving credit for. And in this market, January is a looooong way off (noone thought Lehman would go bust as early as 1st week of September... and look what a Pandora's box it has opened up).
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    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7684397.stm

    I have explained that there will be the establishment of a new world reserve currency, what it is I simply do not know. I doubt the pound or the Euro, we might even see the creation of a new currency named the Amero, im sure January will give us some indication.

    Some thoughtful addittions from CityMonkey, someone who doesnt just dismiss the fact that a run on the dollar is a very real possibility (I think it will have to happen eventually). Very simply, you cannot continue to spend to much, to borrow to much, some day the bills will be due. The massive increase in "cheap" credit created the artificial boom, now what solutions do we offer? Low interest rates to try and spend us out of trouble, the exact same things that got us into trouble in the first place.
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    Isn't that website, like really biased? "Endthebailouts.com", how reliable is that.
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    Hmm, long term devaluation of GBP is over?

    http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/3286/gbpusdmj9.jpg
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    in financial crisises ppl put their money in 'safe' currencies like the dollar and the yen . the dollar wont collapse
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    (Original post by yawn)
    According to George Osbourne (Shadow Chancellor) we could soon be witnessing the end of the Pound. :rolleyes:

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle5158548.ece
    Given the government's mismangement of the economy, he might be right, but it's difficult to see George Osborne as an economic expert. He has never had a proper job outstide politics, and started work for the Conservative Party when he was still in his early 20s. I think it's likely that others are pulling his strings, and it would suit them to see the end of sterling.
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    (Original post by NEVERYOUMIND)
    in financial crisises ppl put their money in 'safe' currencies like the dollar and the yen . the dollar wont collapse
    The dollar is no longer a safe currency, it is at the heart of the whole financial crisis. The current spike in the dollar is most probably down to foreign investors buying up US Assets, thus holding dollars. If you had money to invest in currency at the moment, you wouldnt go near the dollar.

    All they are doing is printing more and more money to try and save the whole financial fiat system, but all it will do is debase the currency (which it has done since 1913, with purchasing power dropping a massive 96%). Its like anything, its not how much you have of it, how much it is worth.
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    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7748362.stm

    So another $800 billion, so the last injection didnt do diddly sqaut except ensure the ultimate downfall of the dollar. I ask any of you on here to give an explanation as to where the Fed gets 800 billion to invest other than by creating it out of thin air.

    This is exactly the root of the problem like I have said so many times, the more they do this the quicker the hyper inflation will come and the end of the dollar will be a real reality.
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    Thats what they want to kill the dollar and create the Amero accordingly with the NAFTA agreement.

    Hey if all they want is to create a new world currency maybe you should be prepared for the Globero who knows!
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    I'm going to chime in as an American....Deflation IS a reality here right now. The prices of everything (especially gas, which is now at prices not seen since the late 90s and it expected to hit $1/gallon by January) has been steadily falling and as a result, a number of people actually having room to breathe now. The Chinese have been investing MORE into our economy, not less, as a collapse of our economy would put theirs in the tank and result in unrest there. As an American, I've actually been doing quite well and have MORE money in my pockets now that I've had in a long time. The problem is getting Americans to spend the money, as they are now sitting on it. Credit offers are abound for those with very high credit scores, but if your not in that category, not a chance.

    Also, the thought of mass inflation in January and beyond is laughable. As the economy recovers, the Fed takes money out of circulation to control inflation, as it has done for decades. When banks need money, they get loans from the Fed, that they have to pay back. As that money is paid back, it is not lent back out, therefore taking money out of circulation.

    The Amero is NOT part of the NAFTA agreement and has way too much opposition in the US and Canada to where you will not see it anytime soon. It was conceived by Bush and is largely opposed by the Democrats, so it will not see the light of day so as long as the Democrats control the government. Besides that, anything that has to do with Bush is very unpopular right now and introducing such a thing would be political suicide.

    I work in the financial industry in the US as a CPA (certified public accountant), so I deal with this stuff everyday and have the credentials to speak on it. Once again, hyper inflation will not happen, the extra cash in the system now is yanked back out as quickly as it went in. They have been injecting and yanking money out for decades, just nobody has paid attention because they amounts haven't been as big as they are now.
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    (Original post by sean43)
    Fiat money systems always fail in the long run, and this one is coming to an end.
    Historic example?
    Why did we get rid of the gold standard then?
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    (Original post by sean43)

    So another $800 billion, so the last injection didnt do diddly sqaut except ensure the ultimate downfall of the dollar. I ask any of you on here to give an explanation as to where the Fed gets 800 billion to invest other than by creating it out of thin air.
    This man is a thinker not an absorber, listen to him

    I agree
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    (Original post by roots)
    This man is a thinker not an absorber, listen to him

    I agree

    They get the 800 billion by issuing treasury bonds. The bonds are purchased by investors, giving the treasury the money it needs to lend out. Nothing is being created out of thin air. The money they injected the first time had no conditions attached to it, resulting in bad use of the money.
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    (Original post by sean43)
    As I have repeatidly said, the events will occur in January when the mega increase money supply as filtered down the the actual public. You can laugh all you want, the dollar will be replaced by a new reserve currency fairly soon. Fiat money systems always fail in the long run, and this one is coming to an end.
    This guy is actually talking sense and he knows what he is on about. I even said it will happen back in the summer. The US economy will collapse and so will the dollar and that will bring down the paper money system.

    For example: this is an Islamic lecture (dont let that put you off) which predicts everything which is happening now and will soon. http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=rPoXMUNlRJE
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    (Original post by Quady)
    Historic example?
    Why did we get rid of the gold standard then?
    Because the world doesn't work the way most people think it does.
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    (Original post by chaotik_mind)
    Because the world doesn't work the way most people think it does.
    Should I read that as 'because I say so'?
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    (Original post by Quady)
    Should I read that as 'because I say so'?
    No. You'll see when the economy collapses.
 
 
 
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