i've been doing a piece of coursework on spread betting analysis and have the formulas for calculating the expected spread for many of the betting types, such as total goals, goals supremacy, cross-corners etc. but am struggling to work out a formula on how to calculate the 25:10 or 'win index' spreads.
i believe it is going to be similar to the goal supremacy formula as it is dependant on the number of goals scored and also the time left within the match. could anyone please advise
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- Thread Starter
- 13-11-2008 18:22
- 14-11-2008 10:24
you have a formula for total goals? out of interest, what is it?
your question isn't very hard... if you have the odds of the team winning and drawing (call then W and D), then the expected spread is just 25W+10D(+0L). of course getting the odds of the team winning/drawing is a rather more complicated matter...
edit: you mean you want the odds while in-game? this becomes then much more complicated. well. if you had the odds of every possible result happening along with some adjuster for time, then simplistically it's just a case of adding up all the scores that'll cause the team to win by the end, and all those that's lead it to draw, then put them into my formula. however, there's have to be other things factored in too - bookings, injuries, and general match-day changes. this is complicated.Last edited by Chewwy; 14-11-2008 at 10:29.