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# Probability question watch

1. I was thinking about this when considering the chances of someone getting into uni. Say you apply to 5 universities and you have a of getting into each of them (and they are independent of each other). So what is your probability of getting into a university (i.e. getting into at least one)? I thought it would be

but that can't be right because it's greater than 1. So what would be the true probability? Would it be

maybe multiplied by some binomial coefficient?
2. p(into 1) or p(into 2) or ..... p(into 5)
=.25 + .25 squared + .25 cubed .....
=0.33
i think this is right but this is not a very good model of unis as probablitity of getting into each one will vary wildly thus this is probably true for very few people (if any)
3. Hmm.... this is a crap model tbh.

You would need some sort of sample and get an estimator from that.
4. (Original post by gangsta316)
So what is your probability of getting into a university (i.e. getting into at least one)?
p(Get into at least 1) = 1 - p(Get into 0) = 1 - 0.75^5 = 0.763
5. What model are you using? Or is that your question; which model to use?

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