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    I was thinking about this when considering the chances of someone getting into uni. Say you apply to 5 universities and you have a \frac{1}{4} of getting into each of them (and they are independent of each other). So what is your probability of getting into a university (i.e. getting into at least one)? I thought it would be

     \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{4}

    but that can't be right because it's greater than 1. So what would be the true probability? Would it be

     \frac{1}{4} + (\frac{1}{4})^2 + (\frac{1}{4})^3 + (\frac{1}{4})^4 + (\frac{1}{4})^5 maybe multiplied by some binomial coefficient?
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    p(into 1) or p(into 2) or ..... p(into 5)
    =.25 + .25 squared + .25 cubed .....
    =0.33
    i think this is right but this is not a very good model of unis as probablitity of getting into each one will vary wildly thus this is probably true for very few people (if any)
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    Hmm.... this is a crap model tbh.

    You would need some sort of sample and get an estimator from that.
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    (Original post by gangsta316)
    So what is your probability of getting into a university (i.e. getting into at least one)?
    p(Get into at least 1) = 1 - p(Get into 0) = 1 - 0.75^5 = 0.763
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    What model are you using? Or is that your question; which model to use?
 
 
 
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Updated: November 13, 2008
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