The Student Room Group

UK politics opinion poll discussion thread

Given there have been a few shock polls today and polls are a constant topic of discussion in British politics, I thought we could do with having a thread to discuss them.

The intention is to create a space to share and discuss polling results.

What we want in this thread:
Opinion poll results relating to UK politics. That doesn't just mean general election voting intention, it can include polling in specific UK nations, leadership approval, by-election/constituency polls and polls on specific topical issues.
For context, please include the polling company who produced the poll and the date either when the fieldwork was done, or failing that when the poll was published.
Respectful, mature discussion about the implication of poll results.

What we don't want in this thread:
Results from unscientific surveys like Twitter polls or online surveys. These are highly unlikely to involve representative samples of people or mean much.
Generally, polls from companies not registered with the British Polling Council and following their guidance. In some cases these can be useful, e.g. if they're internal party polls that have been leaked or published, but context should be given.
Opinion polls on politics outside the UK. These can be interesting and might warrant a thread of their own, but this isn't the right thread for them.
(edited 1 year ago)

Scroll to see replies

A new leader always causes movements in political polls as they rejuvenate their party with fresh leadership and new ideas. Liz Truss has been no exception. May caused a bounce in the polls for the Conservatives, as did Johnson.

The most recent political polls all conducted 28/29 Sept after The Conservative's flagship non-budget to revitalise our economy by spending money we don't have demonstrate this:

Survation Con 28% Lab 49% (Lab lead 21%)
YouGov Con 21% Lab 54% (Lab lead 33%)
Redfield and Wilton Con 29% Lab 46% (Lab lead 17%)

One could be forgiven for thinking Liz Truss, the most talented conservative politician of her generation and true heir to Thatcher, appears to be faceplanting rather than hitting the ground running.
(edited 1 year ago)
Original post by Crazed cat lady
A new leader always causes movements in political polls as they rejuvenate their party with fresh leadership and new ideas. Liz Truss has been no exception. May caused a bounce in the polls for the Conservatives, as did Johnson.

The most recent political polls all conducted 28/29 Sept after The Conservative's flagship non-budget to revitalise our economy by spending money we don't have demonstrate this:

Survation Con 28% Lab 49% (Lab lead 21%)
YouGov Con 21% Lab 54% (Lab lead 33%)
Redfield and Wilton Con 29% Lab 46% (Lab lead 17%)

One could be forgiven for thinking Liz Truss, the most talented conservative politician of her generation and true heir to Thatcher, appears to be faceplanting rather than hitting the ground running.


Just fyi I've put this into a new ongoing thread for discussing just this :smile:
Original post by Saracen's Fez
Just fyi I've put this into a new ongoing thread for discussing just this :smile:


No problem. Although I do think “The Truss bounce” is a better name for the thread.
A poll released by YouGov this afternoon has put Labour on 54% and the Conservatives on 21%.

This is the highest ever Labour share in a YouGov poll.

It's an outlier (other polls give an average lead of 15 points) but it's certainly something worth talking about.

How important is this? How much of it is a result of Tory unpopularity instead of support for Labour's message?

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/09/29/voting-intention-con-21-lab-54-28-29-sep-2022
Labour's lead over the Conservatives is insane right now, but I doubt it will last. While +20% leads for Labour are rare, they're not unprecedented. Labour had consistent +20% leads over the Conservatives in 1990 but would later lose to the Conservatives in the election two years later. Labour also had consistently high leads (from 8%-10%, or even above) throughout most of 2012-2014 but later lost the 2015 election.

Who knows, though? Perhaps with all the aggrivating factors affecting the Conservatives and the Conservatives alone (the cost of living crisis, the collapsing pound, changes to tax), maybe Labour will stick out and win in 2024 (or whenever the next election may be).
Reply 6
Original post by SHallowvale
Labour's lead over the Conservatives is insane right now, but I doubt it will last. While +20% leads for Labour are rare, they're not unprecedented. Labour had consistent +20% leads over the Conservatives in 1990 but would later lose to the Conservatives in the election two years later. Labour also had consistently high leads (from 8%-10%, or even above) throughout most of 2012-2014 but later lost the 2015 election.

Who knows, though? Perhaps with all the aggrivating factors affecting the Conservatives and the Conservatives alone (the cost of living crisis, the collapsing pound, changes to tax), maybe Labour will stick out and win in 2024 (or whenever the next election may be).

Yes I imagine that the 20% leads will narrow. But to win a landslide you don't need a 20% lead.
Original post by DSilva
Yes I imagine that the 20% leads will narrow. But to win a landslide you don't need a 20% lead.

Absolutely. My point was, though, that even 20% leads can eventually disappear into the negative. Sadly... 😅
Original post by DSilva
Yes I imagine that the 20% leads will narrow. But to win a landslide you don't need a 20% lead.

Fortunately for those of us sympathetic to the Tories, Truss is not as strong as Major internally and this polling is near enough from day 1.

The party will not tolerate this kind of polling position and she will not survive to the local elections if this remains the case.

I am very tempted to put money on her being the shortest serving PM as things stand.
Reply 9
Original post by Rakas21
Fortunately for those of us sympathetic to the Tories, Truss is not as strong as Major internally and this polling is near enough from day 1.

The party will not tolerate this kind of polling position and she will not survive to the local elections if this remains the case.

I am very tempted to put money on her being the shortest serving PM as things stand.

It would be ridiculous to change again and would cause a lot of damage to the party too. I'm still amazed that the party didn't choose Sunak. To the outsider he's so much more electable.

But tbh this feels more like 2010 than 1997. No love for the opposition but just a strong sense that the public want change from a stale and tired govt.

I still think the most likely outcome of the next election will be a Labour minority govt or small Labour majority.
Just noticing in passing that in the latest YouGov poll, the Greens (6%) are almost level with the LibDems (7%) - as usual, the LibDems are being squeezed by rising support for Labour.

There's an interesting article in the Guardian today from Jeremy Hunt's (once marginal) seat in Surrey, where informal local anti-Tory coalitions have seized the local council and could give the seat to the LibDems at the election on current polling.

Another seat that would go down would be Boris Johnson's in Uxbridge.
Original post by DSilva
It would be ridiculous to change again and would cause a lot of damage to the party too. I'm still amazed that the party didn't choose Sunak. To the outsider he's so much more electable.

Original post by Rakas21
The party will not tolerate this kind of polling position and she will not survive to the local elections if this remains the case.

Agree with DSilva here. Another change in leadership may be the final nail in the coffin for the Conservatives. The party that once championed itself as being strong and stable can't go around with 5 or more leaders in less than 10 years. The last leadership election took long enough, especially during a time of crisis; another one would be disasterous.

I think Truss will stay till the next election, only out of necessity.
Original post by SHallowvale
I think Truss will stay till the next election, only out of necessity.


The question would once again arise - who would replace her? It's really only Rees-Mogg left now. Although a part of me is forced to admit that although he would be awful, he might in some strange way not be quite as stunningly incompetent as Truss.
Original post by Fullofsurprises
The question would once again arise - who would replace her? It's really only Rees-Mogg left now. Although a part of me is forced to admit that although he would be awful, he might in some strange way not be quite as stunningly incompetent as Truss.

Perhaps May can take back the throne that was stolen from her? I've said it before, I'll say it again... we were too harsh on her. 😭
Original post by SHallowvale
Perhaps May can take back the throne that was stolen from her? I've said it before, I'll say it again... we were too harsh on her. 😭


Yes, robo-PM looks so desirable now compared to barking-PM.
Another couple of polls out today. One from Techne UK showing a 20 point Labour lead and one from People Polling showing a 30 point Labour lead!
If Truss doesn't survive as PM until 2024 & the Tories decide to replace her SURELY we'd have to have a General Election. The Conservative Party would resist this as best they could - and would constitutionally be right to do so under the 2019 mandate - but this would be politically unsellable. I'd struggle to see the justification for refusing to have an election - it'd be shameful.

I'd be interested to hear what Conservative forum members think of this. Thoughts @Rakas21?
(edited 1 year ago)
There's much talk about current polling simply reflecting the state of the Conservatives as opposed to an appetite for a Labour government. The mini-budget is certainly the biggest element of it (69% of 2019 Tory voters oppose axing the 45% rate), but I also think the public are warming to Starmer & the Labour Party.

They've maintained a ~15% point lead over the Conservatives for the best part of 2 months. 50% of those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 now intend to vote Labour - which has almost doubled in the space of a week - and whilst I don't think it's sustainable, it certainly shows a much stronger appetite for Labour amongst voters. This isn't just people being turned off by the Tories, it's people recognising that Labour are offering an alternative vision - and crucially seem to have a bit of competence.

Starmer's conference speech was impressive. He seems to have really improved with the delivery. Same can't be said about Truss - her local radio performance yesterday was shambolic. Embarrassing!
Original post by Burridge
There's much talk about current polling simply reflecting the state of the Conservatives as opposed to an appetite for a Labour government. The mini-budget is certainly the biggest element of it (69% of 2019 Tory voters oppose axing the 45% rate), but I also think the public are warming to Starmer & the Labour Party.

They've maintained a ~15% point lead over the Conservatives for the best part of 2 months. 50% of those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 now intend to vote Labour - which has almost doubled in the space of a week - and whilst I don't think it's sustainable, it certainly shows a much stronger appetite for Labour amongst voters. This isn't just people being turned off by the Tories, it's people recognising that Labour are offering an alternative vision - and crucially seem to have a bit of competence.

Starmer's conference speech was impressive. He seems to have really improved with the delivery. Same can't be said about Truss - her local radio performance yesterday was shambolic. Embarrassing!

I felt this too, Starmer seems to have really improved his delivery since he became Labour leader. His conference speech at the conference last year (or the year prior?) was... not particularly inspiring. He seems to be solidifying his status as a viable and desireable alternative to the Conservatives, something that Ed Milliband (who had similar poll leads) wasn't able to achieve.
Original post by SHallowvale
Agree with DSilva here. Another change in leadership may be the final nail in the coffin for the Conservatives. The party that once championed itself as being strong and stable can't go around with 5 or more leaders in less than 10 years. The last leadership election took long enough, especially during a time of crisis; another one would be disasterous.

I think Truss will stay till the next election, only out of necessity.

I tend to disagree. They did not remove May or Boris because of a direct policy disagreement (most Tory MP's were perfectly content to betray Brexit or put up with his gaffes), they removed them because polling moved sufficiently that they feared loss. If Truss carries on polling this badly or gets to may and loses 1000 council seats then the judgment is simple, they won't do any worse under a new leader.

I do agree that a new leadership election could not be tolerated, it would have to be a coronation.
Original post by Burridge
If Truss doesn't survive as PM until 2024 & the Tories decide to replace her SURELY we'd have to have a General Election. The Conservative Party would resist this as best they could - and would constitutionally be right to do so under the 2019 mandate - but this would be politically unsellable. I'd struggle to see the justification for refusing to have an election - it'd be shameful.

I'd be interested to hear what Conservative forum members think of this. Thoughts @Rakas21?


No. For the simple reason that what people want and what impacts their vote in the polling booth is not the same. It may feed into the argument that the party is not stable currently or even that it may impact trust somewhat but polls after each leadership change have always shown that supporters of other parties wanted a general election, it didn't matter much come polling day.

Realistically the new leader would need a fiscal year to attempt to rectify things, thus May 2024 at the earliest whether they change now or come summer.

Quick Reply

Latest

Trending

Trending