Will World War 3 happen soon?

The two most likely conflicts likely to start WW3 are..

1) China Vs Asia Pacific - So many stakeholders here even outside Taiwan albeit, I don't view this as likely.

2) The real danger is China Vs India.

It is possible that China and India will kick off, but they already did in a small part of the Himalayas recently and it was fairly carefully contained - yes, they are competing, but they also both have an interest in not letting their competition go insane.

I feel that several other disputes are more plausible - one is India/Pakistan - that might kick off seriously again and if so, draw in Russia, China and the US. I suppose that might be a variant on the India/China fallout though.

The other one that feels more ultimately likely to me is not Taiwan but North Korea. I feel that the regime will grow more and more scared, bellicose and risk taking. I suspect that one day they will suddenly go nuts and attack S. Korea or perhaps Japan. That might well precipitate a global conflict with China, if Xi or his next successor is deluded enough to want to defend them.

Don't really think China would defend them to be honest. I suspect that Kim would be dead inside a week and they would have security forces in the capital.

Pakistan as a proxy is a good point. If India and China are buttressing with a GDP multiple many times in China's favour, once that multiple is no longer significant they could well come to meaningful blows.

Don't really think China would defend them to be honest. I suspect that Kim would be dead inside a week and they would have security forces in the capital.

Pakistan as a proxy is a good point. If India and China are buttressing with a GDP multiple many times in China's favour, once that multiple is no longer significant they could well come to meaningful blows.

It's often said that China could not accept Western forces at its land border, therefore even though they might view Kim's crazed performative dictatorship as irritating, they would join him in war. Anyway, I'm sure Kim hopes this - although perhaps now he's depending on his new bestie Vladimir.

China shares a border with NK they have to defend them

Don't really think China would defend them to be honest. I suspect that Kim would be dead inside a week and they would have security forces in the capital.

Pakistan as a proxy is a good point. If India and China are buttressing with a GDP multiple many times in China's favour, once that multiple is no longer significant they could well come to meaningful blows.

North Korea had declared itself as a nuclear state, but don't know whether it is BS. If it is true, the West would reconsider attacking NK.

The west would not attack North Korea. FOP was musing North Korea starting the war in which case it would need to be dealt with.

I think many advanced nations often perform cost-benefit analysis. I don't think South Korea is as important to the west as some people think.

I attended a political seminar where someone said that Taiwan should not be defended if China decided to take it and there were quiet nods of approval without much pushback. The room was filled with Labour and Tory voters and some politicians.

South Korea is critical to the west. It is a foothold on the mainland, not to mention only a few dozen miles from Japan and integrated in global supply chains.

Taiwan is different because while important, it's geographically isolated (though the coast is almost immediately mountains meaning that China would suffer massive losses to win).

No one has the b*lls to start WW3

Just imagine if WW3 started (I really hope not):

Russia-Ukraine
Israel-Palestine
Ireland-Northern Ireland (UK)
North Korea-South Korea
China-Taiwan
Pakistan-India
Iran-Iraq
Turkey-Greece
...

The west would not attack North Korea. FOP was musing North Korea starting the war in which case it would need to be dealt with.

North Korea had declared itself as a nuclear state, but don't know whether it is BS. If it is true, the West would reconsider attacking NK.

Shame really, its a blot on our collective conscience that it is allowed to exist. If any war were to be 'just' exterminating the ruling class there would be it. Certainly better than continuing to enable the slaughter of Slavs and Arabs for dubious ends.

At least not as long as we are living. I don't care what comes next when I am dead, do you?

Don't really think China would defend them to be honest. I suspect that Kim would be dead inside a week and they would have security forces in the capital.

Pakistan as a proxy is a good point. If India and China are buttressing with a GDP multiple many times in China's favour, once that multiple is no longer significant they could well come to meaningful blows.

China shares a border with NK they have to defend them