[Official Thread] Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to deliver Autumn Statement on Wednesday
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Reply 20
Number of times Hunt used the phrase fiscal drag: 0
Original post
by Gazpacho.He’s criticising Labour over migration when we know we’ll get figures tomorrow showing just how insanely high the Conservatives have pushed up net migration.
I don't remember any mention of migration, but there's always a lot going on in a Budget/Statement!
Reply 22
Original post
by CatusStarbrightI don't remember any mention of migration, but there's always a lot going on in a Budget/Statement!
it was only a sentence but amusing as we’ll be having a week of headlines attacking the government over their migration record.
Reply 23
I’d like to say Rachel Reeves is doing a good job of savaging the government, but they’ve made it so easy for her.
Reply 24
Original post
by CatusStarbrightThree reforms to improve incentives to work:
•
Reforms to the fit note process (treatment rather than time off becomes default) and work capability assessment
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£1.3 billion over five years to help those with health conditions find jobs
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Benefits stopped if people do not engage with the programme for six months
If I believed that for one second this would be actually enforced I’d be delighted, however, no chance, not the resources to staff it.
Reply 25
The IFS summary:
This is of course not a situation that has been created overnight, but the consequences of 13 years of economic and fiscal mismanagement. What disappoints me about current polling is we’ll likely see around 25% of the population endorse this mismanagement at the next general election.
The public finances haven’t meaningfully improved. The growth outlook has weakened. Inflation is expected to stay higher for longer. Higher inflation pushes up tax receipts by more than it pushes up spending on debt interest or social security benefits. But rather than use the proceeds to ease the ongoing ‘fiscal drag’ effects of threshold freezes, or to compensate public services for higher costs, the Chancellor opted to cut other taxes – most notably National Insurance and corporation tax. These tax cuts won’t be enough to prevent this from being the biggest tax raising parliament in modern times.
This is of course not a situation that has been created overnight, but the consequences of 13 years of economic and fiscal mismanagement. What disappoints me about current polling is we’ll likely see around 25% of the population endorse this mismanagement at the next general election.
Reply 26
21
Sadly could not get the day off but watching now.
Inflation falls to 2.8% next year, below 2% from 2025.
Welfare goes up 6.7%, housing allowance increased.
State Pension up 8.5%.
Debt to GDP peaks at 94% then hangs around, falling to 92%. Second lowest in G7.
Fiscal deficit comes in at 4.5% then falls to 1.1% by April 2029, most Tories will agree that should occur faster.
Growth 0.6% for 2023, 0.7% for 2024, rising afterwards to 2% by 2028. Pretty Poor.
Vague committment to reducing spending as a proportion of GDP.
Gove reforms have put us 4th for English rankings globally at primary level.
Despite the scare of the remoaners, the UK now holds the larest Life Sciences, Technology and Media sectors in Europe.
Natwest share offering next year.
Smattering of enterprise zones which i'm not a fan of, we should do that across the whole country. A lot of these things are indicative of our local authorities being too ununiform. Reduce the 330 to 100 roughly of equal size.
Mayoral deals for East Yorkshire and Surrey, also against these.
Business rates are clearly a mess with a lot of sector specific variance, needs reform. Hunt has however increased business rates for non-small business, frozen for small. Tax giveaway for retail and hospitality rather than reforming what's actually on the high street.
Class 2 NI abolished. Class 4 reduced to 8%. This is self employed, very supportive though they should all be abolished.
Super-Deduction for capital investment permanent, strongly support.
Minimum Wage increased to £11.44 per hour.
NI cut 2%, very happy. Brought in from Jan 6th too.
Somewhat meh speech from Reeves.
Inflation falls to 2.8% next year, below 2% from 2025.
Welfare goes up 6.7%, housing allowance increased.
State Pension up 8.5%.
Debt to GDP peaks at 94% then hangs around, falling to 92%. Second lowest in G7.
Fiscal deficit comes in at 4.5% then falls to 1.1% by April 2029, most Tories will agree that should occur faster.
Growth 0.6% for 2023, 0.7% for 2024, rising afterwards to 2% by 2028. Pretty Poor.
Vague committment to reducing spending as a proportion of GDP.
Gove reforms have put us 4th for English rankings globally at primary level.
Despite the scare of the remoaners, the UK now holds the larest Life Sciences, Technology and Media sectors in Europe.
Natwest share offering next year.
Smattering of enterprise zones which i'm not a fan of, we should do that across the whole country. A lot of these things are indicative of our local authorities being too ununiform. Reduce the 330 to 100 roughly of equal size.
Mayoral deals for East Yorkshire and Surrey, also against these.
Business rates are clearly a mess with a lot of sector specific variance, needs reform. Hunt has however increased business rates for non-small business, frozen for small. Tax giveaway for retail and hospitality rather than reforming what's actually on the high street.
Class 2 NI abolished. Class 4 reduced to 8%. This is self employed, very supportive though they should all be abolished.
Super-Deduction for capital investment permanent, strongly support.
Minimum Wage increased to £11.44 per hour.
NI cut 2%, very happy. Brought in from Jan 6th too.
Somewhat meh speech from Reeves.
•
Overall, business friendly with a good giveaway but avoids big reform.
•
Nothing for Energy and Mortgages means people will still feel hard hit.
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