I tried to log into the portal to see my offer for DPhil History, and that seems to have triggered an email and it came through straight away - successful!
Just in case anyone (like me) has been paying attention to the superstitious stuff, my button disappeared over a week ago and it only came through today. It also came through after 5pm, and I had read that successful applications could only come through 9-5 (GMT). Seems lots of decisions are coming out today, luck everyone!!