I was on a reserve list for funding and was awarded it in the end. But really nobody can say what the likelihood of this is; there's so many factors.
To your other question though: when I got the email about being on the reserve list I initially thought I was outright rejected and went to commiserate with a friend who was up for the same funding and got rejected. Then I went back to the email (probably to rub salt in my wound 😂) and only then noticed the reserve list part. I was actually really pleased -- reserve list is an achievement. I knew my proposal was good -- I could not have done anything more -- and previous achievements were all at the highest level. I had an unconditional place on the PhD despite not having finished my master's, and some prizes. My supervisors were surprised and disappointed but very reassuring. I took it as a really good lesson that rejection of some form in academia is inevitable, and if I wanted to continue, I should really learn to accept it now. I realised it also didn't make me any less proud of my proposal, which was super important because I eventually did get the funding to execute that project!
Don't lose hope and don't get down on yourself. If it helps, let yourself wallow a little in disappointment but then re-orient yourself to why you want to do the PhD, and remind yourself of your achievements thus far. You're clearly at the top of your game if you've come this close, so don't forget this. Sometimes bad luck just intervenes and it's nothing to do with you. Decide whether, if you don't get this one, you want to try for others, and put your energy into that once you know the outcome of this. I'll keep my fingers crossed for you!