An incoming Labour Administration HAS to prime the engines of our national economy in order to achieve its committing to long term economic growth.
The ambition of our next administration should be reaching annual trend rates of economic growth rate of at least 3% per year, every year, over a 10-year horizon period.
In order to achieve such levels of growth and ensure the lifeblood of our economy flows rapidly without clotting, a 12-month period of ‘sugar rush’ policies are required to provide the space for the real ‘starter’ measures to kick in.
How do we achieve 10 years of inflated growth, increase tax revenues, boost public spending and most importantly, invest in projects via capital spending.
Rebuilding our high streets:
‘Sugar Rush’ - Policy:
Between Friday and Sunday for 12 months – introduce a 50% subsidy, capped at £10 per person, when food and drinks, including alcohol, is purchased.
When a similar policy was tried in August of 2020 for one month between Monday and Wednesday, the total cost amounted to around £850 million with 160 million meals being subsided, leading to a rapid, above average, increase of the number of individuals who went out for meals.
With the amended policy taking place between Friday and Monday, it is therefore sensible to assume a 500% increase in the number of ‘meals’ being subsided, in part due to alcohol being included – this will lead to a healthy increase in both alcohol duty revenue and Value-Added Taxation.
The estimated ‘initial cost’ of the policy will be £4.2 billion per month, or £50.4 billion over a 12-month period – although this cost should be ignored due to the purpose of the policy, that being starting the journey towards long term economic growth and providing the breathing space for the more substantive long-term investments to ‘kick in’ – over a 10 year period, before interest, this policy would cost £4.2 billion per year.
‘Sugar Rush’ - Policy:
Boost the high street via ‘economic revival subsides.
All claimants of Universal Credit for a period of 12 months will be able to any high street retailer and purchase up to £700 worth of goods, with the retailer being able to claim back the full amount of the purchase from the UK government.
This will boost Value Added Tax revenues for a period of 12 months and most likely lead to a large boost in the number of high street sales.
The anticipated initial of the policy over a 12-month period, providing all 6.5 million Universal Credit claimants too part in the scheme, would be £4.55 billion per month, or £54.6 billion a year – over a 10-year period, before interest, this policy would cost £5.45 billion per year.
‘Sugar Rush’ - Policy:
Seek to increase the number of new vehicles purchased within the UK by offering £20,500 towards the cost of a new vehicle (no part-ex required) – also introduce a ‘interest claim back’ facility for dealerships so they can offer 0% rates of interests and amend criteria so they can take on ‘risker’ customers’.
Total registered new cars in the UK for 2024 was 1.9 million. If the policy was to increase the number of new cars by 200% to 5.7 million per year, the total initial cost would be £116.7 billion over a 12-month period – over a 10-year period, before interest, this policy would cost £9.7 billion per month.
‘Sugar Rush’ - Policy:
Introduce a 12-month scheme to give 50% of the adult population (per year), 20.5 million individuals, a £500 per month (£6000 per year) grant which must be spent within a 12-hour window.
The total cost of the policy would be £10.2 billion per month, providing a 100% uptake, with a yearly estimated initial cost of £122.4 billion, although over a 10-year period, the finance per year would be, before interest, £12.4 billion per month.
‘Long Term Growth - Policy:
Partake in a 12-month policy of retrofitting 25 million homes within the UK with either heat pumps, solar panels, and battery storage.
The estimated cost of 6 solar panels, a 5.4 kw hour battery and other ‘fitting costs’ is around £9000. The total estimated cost of a heat pump, without the £7500 grant, is, on average, £12,000. Totalling £21,000 of work required.
25 million homes retrofitted would require almost 2.1 million homes per month, or 75,000 new installations per day.
In terms of the ‘policy cost’, this would amount to £525 billion, although, this policy could be financed over 25 years (the estimated life of the technology before impacting efficiency), costing before interest £21 billion per year.
Although, there would be indirect costs in terms of importing labour, given the large size of the protect. Assuming over a 12-month period 5 million individuals would be imported to the UK to work on the protects, this would result in an indirect cost, assuming an average salary, £58,000, or around £29 billion.
Outcome:
Therefore, the total estimated cost, per year and before interest, of the policies would equate to (before interest), £52.75 billion per year - leading to increases in tax revenues and driving economic growth through a combined of direct day-to-day spending and capital investment.
While the total combined cost would equate to £869.1 billion, or around 35% of GDP, this would be financed, in part over a 10-year period, while the ‘green measures’ financed over 25 years.