The Student Room Group

2024 local elections discussion thread

Scroll to see replies

Original post by Saracen's Fez
That we're on track for a hung parliament: https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-projection-labour-on-course-to-be-largest-party-but-short-of-overall-majority-13128242

We aren't, for two reasons:
1) The Labour vote is far better distributed, so they're getting bigger swings from the Tories in the places they need to win in a general election, so the swing they actually need could be as little as half what they'd need on uniform national swing (if the swing were the same everywhere).
2) There's strong evidence for incresibly efficient Labour/Lib Dem tactical voting, including in these elections (PCCs aside) but in practice at a general election Labour will benefit a lot more from tactical voting than the LDs, whereas it's more even at a local election where the LDs can win in more places.


What does “hung parliament mean? Does it mean labour not getting a clear majority?
Original post by talkative toad
What does “hung parliament mean? Does it mean labour not getting a clear majority?

Yep. It means a single party does not have a majority so the government would struggle to get legislation through.

The most recent examples are 2010 when the Conservatives formed a coalition with the Lib Dems and 2017 where the Conservatives needed a confidence and supply agreement with the DUP.

However the polls are indicating that this is not on the cards, Labour are looking at having a majority until we see significant shifts of opinion among the public.
(edited 2 months ago)
Original post by Gazpacho.
Yep. It means a single party does not have a majority so the government would struggle to get legislation through.

The most recent examples are 2010 when the Conservatives formed a coalition with the Lib Dems and 2017 where the Conservatives needed a confidence and supply agreement with the DUP.

However the polls are indicating that this is not on the cards, Labour are looking at having a majority until we see significant shifts of opinion among the public.


Thanks for the information, yeah I think that Sky News might be inaccurate then as Fez suggests.
Original post by Talkative Toad
Thanks for the information, yeah I think that Sky News might be inaccurate then as Fez suggests.

I suspect it is just Sky trying to create to create a drama where one does not exist.

BBC are now projecting Khan will win with the Conservatives losing voter share vs 2021.
Original post by Gazpacho.
I suspect it is just Sky trying to create to create a drama where one does not exist.

BBC are now projecting Khan will win with the Conservatives losing voter share vs 2021.

Probably, I don’t watch the news that much these days.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Khan won again.
Sadiq Khan is over the line.

Looks like Labour are now the more optimistic in the West Midlands too!
It's sounding like Andy Street may have run out of road...
Khan has won London by a very comfortable margin. All the reports yesterday about this being a close race seem to have been hot air, but I understand why.

People were taking the turnout figures (by constituency) and extrapolating them out and assuming the worst case scenario; lower turnout affecting Khan and higher turnout supporting Hall. This is, of course, nonsense reasoning and the result proved it.

Suffice to say, thank God we don't have Hall as mayor. What an absolute disaster that would have been. The upcoming result in West Midlands looks very promising for Labour, albeit a close result.

Still, the Conservatives will cling on to Tees Valley because they have failed everywhere else. This was almost the worst set of results they could have got. I am surprised there has not been more backlash against Sunak from within the party. Maybe there is, just behind closed doors?
Original post by SHallowvale
Khan has won London by a very comfortable margin. All the reports yesterday about this being a close race seem to have been hot air, but I understand why.
People were taking the turnout figures (by constituency) and extrapolating them out and assuming the worst case scenario; lower turnout affecting Khan and higher turnout supporting Hall. This is, of course, nonsense reasoning and the result proved it.
Suffice to say, thank God we don't have Hall as mayor. What an absolute disaster that would have been. The upcoming result in West Midlands looks very promising for Labour, albeit a close result.
Still, the Conservatives will cling on to Tees Valley because they have failed everywhere else. This was almost the worst set of results they could have got. I am surprised there has not been more backlash against Sunak from within the party. Maybe there is, just behind closed doors?

I think now we’ve lost West Midlands they’ll be some. Tories knew it would be bad
Original post by SHallowvale
Khan has won London by a very comfortable margin. All the reports yesterday about this being a close race seem to have been hot air, but I understand why.

People were taking the turnout figures (by constituency) and extrapolating them out and assuming the worst case scenario; lower turnout affecting Khan and higher turnout supporting Hall. This is, of course, nonsense reasoning and the result proved it.

Think it's unfair to say it was nonsense reasoning it was also identifying an unexpectedly high LD vote and misinterpeting it (as a lack of tactical pro-Khan voting rather than new LD voters peeling away from the Tories), and looking at how Labour was leaking support to its left and among Muslims elsewhere, which didn't happen to the same extent in London.
Still, the Conservatives will cling on to Tees Valley because they have failed everywhere else. This was almost the worst set of results they could have got. I am surprised there has not been more backlash against Sunak from within the party. Maybe there is, just behind closed doors?

Maybe there is, but they don't really have an alternative candidate and they probably realise that people won't look kindly on them changing the prime minister again.
Original post by Saracen's Fez
On 2nd May 2024, a number of local elections are taking place in England, with some also in Wales.
The elections include:
The Mayor of London and London Assembly
10 other combined- and single-authority mayors
26 English unitary and district councils in full
81 English unitary and district councils in part
All police and crime commissioners in England and Wales
There's also a parliamentary by-election on the same day in Blackpool South.
All of that means that it's very hard to map the whole election as yet, but I once again recommend the Wikipedia page, which gives a good snapshot of what's up for election and the results when they come in later in the week.
"it's very hard to map the whole election"

Au contraire... "An absolute shellacking for the Tories, across the board" works as both a general prediction and a general summary.
Original post by SHallowvale
It's hilarious watching the Conservatives cling onto their Tees Valley candidate, they have nothing else to show for themselves. This has been a disaster of a night for them, I hope we see something similar at the general election.

With a majority reduced from 117,000 to 19,000.

In the Welsh P&CC elections the Tories campaigned on opposition to the 20mph policy, obviously believing their own propaganda that there was a huge public opposition to it. They were crushed.

They may be finished as a political force in the UK for some time.
Reply 32
Original post by 2WheelGod
"it's very hard to map the whole election"
Au contraire... "An absolute shellacking for the Tories, across the board" works as both a general prediction and a general summary.

Except it doesn't. Mayoral elections are generally about the candidate and many people vote differently at council elections compared to general elections. The Lib Dems, Greens and Independents all do better in the locals compared to the nationals. And if you look at share of the vote, Kier got less as a percentage than Ed Miliband and Tony Blair.
Original post by hotpud
Except it doesn't. Mayoral elections are generally about the candidate and many people vote differently at council elections compared to general elections. The Lib Dems, Greens and Independents all do better in the locals compared to the nationals. And if you look at share of the vote, Kier got less as a percentage than Ed Miliband and Tony Blair.
Regardless of the reasons behind the vote, the Tories got an absolute kicking. And it was obvious it was going to happen.
Their one victory (Tees) saw their majority butchered from over 100,000 to 19,000 (iirc).
Original post by hotpud
Except it doesn't. Mayoral elections are generally about the candidate and many people vote differently at council elections compared to general elections. The Lib Dems, Greens and Independents all do better in the locals compared to the nationals. And if you look at share of the vote, Kier got less as a percentage than Ed Miliband and Tony Blair.

The results are a good indicator of what the country thinks and what is a likely outcome of the next election (especially since it's less than a year away).

The Conservatives lost nearly half of their councillors in both this election and the one last year. They have been averaging around 20% behind Labour since the start of the year and have lost all of their recent by-elections. These local elections, if anything, are just a confirmation of what we already know. Unless there is a major shift nationally, the Conservatives are set for complete annihilation next time.
Can someone please explain why all the newspaper headlines are acting like Christmas has been cancelled? E.g. 'disappointing local election results' (they seem like great reaults to me, they lost!), 'tory losses', 'Tories "crushed" by results' etc. I know newspapers obviously take a political stance but come on.
The local election results I thought are a good indicator of what the people think so surely its a good thing Conservatives are doomed.

Also, shouldn't there be more focus that the liberal democrats have just beat conservatives I think possibly in very long time, or the first time ever?
(edited 2 months ago)
Original post by Chronoscope
Can someone please explain why all the newspaper headlines are acting like Christmas has been cancelled? E.g. 'disappointing local election results' (they seem like great reaults to me, they lost!), 'tory losses', 'Tories "crushed" by results' etc. I know newspapers obviously take a political stance but come on.
The local election results I thought are a good indicator of what the people think so surely its a good thing Conservatives are doomed.

Also, shouldn't there be more focus that the liberal democrats have just beat conservatives I think possibly in very long time, or the first time ever?


I think that it’s because the Tories are the current people in power so they getting crushed is more significant I guess :dontknow:.
Original post by Chronoscope
Can someone please explain why all the newspaper headlines are acting like Christmas has been cancelled? E.g. 'disappointing local election results' (they seem like great reaults to me, they lost!), 'tory losses', 'Tories "crushed" by results' etc. I know newspapers obviously take a political stance but come on.
The local election results I thought are a good indicator of what the people think so surely its a good thing Conservatives are doomed.
Also, shouldn't there be more focus that the liberal democrats have just beat conservatives I think possibly in very long time, or the first time ever?

First time since 1996 Lib Dems have more councillors than the Tories.

I suspect the lack of focus on them is because they are not seen as that relevant at national level at the moment. They only have 15 MPs. Although, come the general election, we'll probably see the take some juicy seats from the Conservatives.

Quick Reply