2024 local elections discussion thread

That we're on track for a hung parliament: https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-projection-labour-on-course-to-be-largest-party-but-short-of-overall-majority-13128242

We aren't, for two reasons:
1) The Labour vote is far better distributed, so they're getting bigger swings from the Tories in the places they need to win in a general election, so the swing they actually need could be as little as half what they'd need on uniform national swing (if the swing were the same everywhere).
2) There's strong evidence for incresibly efficient Labour/Lib Dem tactical voting, including in these elections (PCCs aside) – but in practice at a general election Labour will benefit a lot more from tactical voting than the LDs, whereas it's more even at a local election where the LDs can win in more places.

What does “hung parliament mean? Does it mean labour not getting a clear majority?

Yep. It means a single party does not have a majority so the government would struggle to get legislation through.

The most recent examples are 2010 when the Conservatives formed a coalition with the Lib Dems and 2017 where the Conservatives needed a confidence and supply agreement with the DUP.

However the polls are indicating that this is not on the cards, Labour are looking at having a majority until we see significant shifts of opinion among the public.

Thanks for the information, yeah I think that Sky News might be inaccurate then as Fez suggests.

I suspect it is just Sky trying to create to create a drama where one does not exist.

BBC are now projecting Khan will win with the Conservatives losing voter share vs 2021.

Khan has won London by a very comfortable margin. All the reports yesterday about this being a close race seem to have been hot air, but I understand why.
People were taking the turnout figures (by constituency) and extrapolating them out and assuming the worst case scenario; lower turnout affecting Khan and higher turnout supporting Hall. This is, of course, nonsense reasoning and the result proved it.
Suffice to say, thank God we don't have Hall as mayor. What an absolute disaster that would have been. The upcoming result in West Midlands looks very promising for Labour, albeit a close result.
Still, the Conservatives will cling on to Tees Valley because they have failed everywhere else. This was almost the worst set of results they could have got. I am surprised there has not been more backlash against Sunak from within the party. Maybe there is, just behind closed doors?

Khan has won London by a very comfortable margin. All the reports yesterday about this being a close race seem to have been hot air, but I understand why.

People were taking the turnout figures (by constituency) and extrapolating them out and assuming the worst case scenario; lower turnout affecting Khan and higher turnout supporting Hall. This is, of course, nonsense reasoning and the result proved it.

Still, the Conservatives will cling on to Tees Valley because they have failed everywhere else. This was almost the worst set of results they could have got. I am surprised there has not been more backlash against Sunak from within the party. Maybe there is, just behind closed doors?

On 2nd May 2024, a number of local elections are taking place in England, with some also in Wales.
The elections include:
– The Mayor of London and London Assembly
– 10 other combined- and single-authority mayors
– 26 English unitary and district councils in full
– 81 English unitary and district councils in part
– All police and crime commissioners in England and Wales
There's also a parliamentary by-election on the same day in Blackpool South.
All of that means that it's very hard to map the whole election as yet, but I once again recommend the Wikipedia page, which gives a good snapshot of what's up for election and the results when they come in later in the week.

It's hilarious watching the Conservatives cling onto their Tees Valley candidate, they have nothing else to show for themselves. This has been a disaster of a night for them, I hope we see something similar at the general election.

"it's very hard to map the whole election"
Au contraire... "An absolute shellacking for the Tories, across the board" works as both a general prediction and a general summary.

Except it doesn't. Mayoral elections are generally about the candidate and many people vote differently at council elections compared to general elections. The Lib Dems, Greens and Independents all do better in the locals compared to the nationals. And if you look at share of the vote, Kier got less as a percentage than Ed Miliband and Tony Blair.

Except it doesn't. Mayoral elections are generally about the candidate and many people vote differently at council elections compared to general elections. The Lib Dems, Greens and Independents all do better in the locals compared to the nationals. And if you look at share of the vote, Kier got less as a percentage than Ed Miliband and Tony Blair.

Can someone please explain why all the newspaper headlines are acting like Christmas has been cancelled? E.g. 'disappointing local election results' (they seem like great reaults to me, they lost!), 'tory losses', 'Tories "crushed" by results' etc. I know newspapers obviously take a political stance but come on.
The local election results I thought are a good indicator of what the people think so surely its a good thing Conservatives are doomed.

Also, shouldn't there be more focus that the liberal democrats have just beat conservatives I think possibly in very long time, or the first time ever?

Can someone please explain why all the newspaper headlines are acting like Christmas has been cancelled? E.g. 'disappointing local election results' (they seem like great reaults to me, they lost!), 'tory losses', 'Tories "crushed" by results' etc. I know newspapers obviously take a political stance but come on.
The local election results I thought are a good indicator of what the people think so surely its a good thing Conservatives are doomed.
Also, shouldn't there be more focus that the liberal democrats have just beat conservatives I think possibly in very long time, or the first time ever?