General election 2024 predictions competition – win a prize!
It's the 2024 general election predictions competition!
I'm going to roughly follow what we did in 2019, and run the competition in two parts. One involves predicting the seat totals for each party, and the other involves predicting the winner in 12 selected constituencies.
We'll organise a rep prize for each half of the competition, and potentially a slightly more material prize for the overall winner.
For the first half, you say how many seats (of a total of 650, and not including any other parties/independents not listed) you think each party will win. I've listed the parties that won seats at the last election. Your score is the total error (the difference between the total you predict and the actual total for each party).
Conservative:
Labour:
SNP:
Lib Dem:
Plaid Cymru:
Green:
DUP:
Sinn Féin:
SDLP:
Alliance:
For the second half, there's a list of 12 constituencies that I think will tell us something about what has happened at the election. I've given an explanation below as to why I've chosen them. You just say which party is going to win. I've hyperlinked the Wikipedia pages to give a bit more info. The winner will be the person who predicts the most constituencies correctly.
Belfast East:
Bristol Central:
Dorking and Horley:
Dover and Deal:
Glasgow East:
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr:
North East Derbyshire:
Nuneaton:
Rochdale:
Stevenage:
Wimbledon:
Ynys Môn:
We'll select an overall winner by adding together your score in the first part and awarding you 15 point for every constituency you guess correctly in the second part.
You can edit your entry if things change during the campaign, but I'll take your final answer at 00:00 on 4th July, the night before polling day!
Happy guessing!
I'm going to roughly follow what we did in 2019, and run the competition in two parts. One involves predicting the seat totals for each party, and the other involves predicting the winner in 12 selected constituencies.
We'll organise a rep prize for each half of the competition, and potentially a slightly more material prize for the overall winner.
For the first half, you say how many seats (of a total of 650, and not including any other parties/independents not listed) you think each party will win. I've listed the parties that won seats at the last election. Your score is the total error (the difference between the total you predict and the actual total for each party).
Conservative:
Labour:
SNP:
Lib Dem:
Plaid Cymru:
Green:
DUP:
Sinn Féin:
SDLP:
Alliance:
For the second half, there's a list of 12 constituencies that I think will tell us something about what has happened at the election. I've given an explanation below as to why I've chosen them. You just say which party is going to win. I've hyperlinked the Wikipedia pages to give a bit more info. The winner will be the person who predicts the most constituencies correctly.
Belfast East:
Bristol Central:
Dorking and Horley:
Dover and Deal:
Glasgow East:
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr:
North East Derbyshire:
Nuneaton:
Rochdale:
Stevenage:
Wimbledon:
Ynys Môn:
We'll select an overall winner by adding together your score in the first part and awarding you 15 point for every constituency you guess correctly in the second part.
You can edit your entry if things change during the campaign, but I'll take your final answer at 00:00 on 4th July, the night before polling day!
Happy guessing!
Reasons for choosing each constituency
Conservative: 70
Labour: 450
SNP: 34
Lib Dem: 70
Plaid Cymru: 4
Green: 2
DUP: 7
Sinn Féin: 8
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 2
Reform: 1
Adding one seat for rerform
Labour: 450
SNP: 34
Lib Dem: 70
Plaid Cymru: 4
Green: 2
DUP: 7
Sinn Féin: 8
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 2
Reform: 1
Adding one seat for rerform
(edited 10 months ago)
Will add and count later and might edit throughout
Reply 3
Conservative: 105
Labour: 436
SNP: 16
Lib Dem: 60
Reform: 4
Plaid Cymru: 4
Green: 2
DUP: 6
Sinn Féin: 7
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 1
Labour: 436
SNP: 16
Lib Dem: 60
Reform: 4
Plaid Cymru: 4
Green: 2
DUP: 6
Sinn Féin: 7
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 1
Original post by Saracen's Fez
It's the 2024 general election predictions competition!
I'm going to roughly follow what we did in 2019, and run the competition in two parts. One involves predicting the seat totals for each party, and the other involves predicting the winner in 12 selected constituencies.
We'll organise a rep prize for each half of the competition, and potentially a slightly more material prize for the overall winner.
For the first half, you say how many seats (of a total of 650, and not including any other parties/independents not listed) you think each party will win. I've listed the parties that won seats at the last election. Your score is the total error (the difference between the total you predict and the actual total for each party).
Conservative:
Labour:
SNP:
Lib Dem:
Plaid Cymru:
Green:
DUP:
Sinn Féin:
SDLP:
Alliance:
For the second half, there's a list of 12 constituencies that I think will tell us something about what has happened at the election. I've given an explanation below as to why I've chosen them. You just say which party is going to win. I've hyperlinked the Wikipedia pages to give a bit more info. The winner will be the person who predicts the most constituencies correctly.
Belfast East:
Bristol Central:
Dorking and Horley:
Dover and Deal:
Glasgow East:
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr:
North East Derbyshire:
Nuneaton:
Rochdale:
Stevenage:
Wimbledon:
Ynys Môn:
We'll select an overall winner by adding together your score in the first part and awarding you 15 point for every constituency you guess correctly in the second part.
You can edit your entry if things change during the campaign, but I'll take your final answer at 00:00 on 4th July, the night before polling day!
Happy guessing!
I'm going to roughly follow what we did in 2019, and run the competition in two parts. One involves predicting the seat totals for each party, and the other involves predicting the winner in 12 selected constituencies.
We'll organise a rep prize for each half of the competition, and potentially a slightly more material prize for the overall winner.
For the first half, you say how many seats (of a total of 650, and not including any other parties/independents not listed) you think each party will win. I've listed the parties that won seats at the last election. Your score is the total error (the difference between the total you predict and the actual total for each party).
Conservative:
Labour:
SNP:
Lib Dem:
Plaid Cymru:
Green:
DUP:
Sinn Féin:
SDLP:
Alliance:
For the second half, there's a list of 12 constituencies that I think will tell us something about what has happened at the election. I've given an explanation below as to why I've chosen them. You just say which party is going to win. I've hyperlinked the Wikipedia pages to give a bit more info. The winner will be the person who predicts the most constituencies correctly.
Belfast East:
Bristol Central:
Dorking and Horley:
Dover and Deal:
Glasgow East:
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr:
North East Derbyshire:
Nuneaton:
Rochdale:
Stevenage:
Wimbledon:
Ynys Môn:
We'll select an overall winner by adding together your score in the first part and awarding you 15 point for every constituency you guess correctly in the second part.
You can edit your entry if things change during the campaign, but I'll take your final answer at 00:00 on 4th July, the night before polling day!
Happy guessing!
Reasons for choosing each constituency
Technically Luton already shows that they can win in the South
.Luton is Labour I think.
Original post by Talkative Toad
Technically Luton already shows that they can win in the South .
Luton is Labour I think.
.Luton is Labour I think.
Yes, but the Luton seats are safe seats – basically one of the Labour cities like Oxford, Cambridge, Exeter rather than the commuter town marginals.
Btw if there is not really any interest in this then I'm minded to close this thread.
Original post by Saracen's Fez
Yes, but the Luton seats are safe seats – basically one of the Labour cities like Oxford, Cambridge, Exeter rather than the commuter town marginals.
Btw if there is not really any interest in this then I'm minded to close this thread.
Btw if there is not really any interest in this then I'm minded to close this thread.
That makes sense
I’m interested but I’m still trying to estimate.
Reply 7
Original post by Adam Woodbridge
@Saracen's Fez
As an under 18, can I estimate?
As an under 18, can I estimate?
You can estimate if you like, but due to lack of interest there'll be no prize.
Reply 9
Conservative: 123
Labour: 418
SNP: 15
Lib Dem: 66
Plaid Cymru: 3
Green: 2
Reform: 3
DUP: 5
Sinn Féin: 8
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 3
UUP: 1
Speaker: 1 😈
Rationale: I have used Survation's MRP model as the basis of this prediction. Survation have been incredibly accurate in the past. They have predicted a Labour landslide with Labour 42%, Conservatives 23%, Reform 12%, Lib Dems 12% and Greens 5%.
In practice I do not think Labour will be 19% ahead. Given all the talk of a 'Labour Supermajority', I think we'll see lowered turnout among Labour voters and raised turnout among Conservative voters. To account for this 'foregone conclusion' scenario, I added 4% to the Conservatives and taken 4% away from Labour. I also gave Reform and Greens a few % to reflect their higher standing in national polls (compared to what Survation project).
Plugging this into Electoral Calculus gives roughly the figures you see above, minor some adjustments to take votes away from smaller parties (namely Reform and Greens, who I don't think will gain many seats as Electoral Calculus suggests). For Northern Ireland, I took the last elections results and imagined what it would look like with a swing of votes from the DUP to the UUP (and no major change elsewhere).
Could be, and probably will be, completely wrong. Just have to wait and see. 😁
Labour: 418
SNP: 15
Lib Dem: 66
Plaid Cymru: 3
Green: 2
Reform: 3
DUP: 5
Sinn Féin: 8
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 3
UUP: 1
Speaker: 1 😈
Rationale: I have used Survation's MRP model as the basis of this prediction. Survation have been incredibly accurate in the past. They have predicted a Labour landslide with Labour 42%, Conservatives 23%, Reform 12%, Lib Dems 12% and Greens 5%.
In practice I do not think Labour will be 19% ahead. Given all the talk of a 'Labour Supermajority', I think we'll see lowered turnout among Labour voters and raised turnout among Conservative voters. To account for this 'foregone conclusion' scenario, I added 4% to the Conservatives and taken 4% away from Labour. I also gave Reform and Greens a few % to reflect their higher standing in national polls (compared to what Survation project).
Plugging this into Electoral Calculus gives roughly the figures you see above, minor some adjustments to take votes away from smaller parties (namely Reform and Greens, who I don't think will gain many seats as Electoral Calculus suggests). For Northern Ireland, I took the last elections results and imagined what it would look like with a swing of votes from the DUP to the UUP (and no major change elsewhere).
Could be, and probably will be, completely wrong. Just have to wait and see. 😁
Reply 10
Conservative: 60
Labour: 472
SNP: 15
Lib Dem: 72
Plaid Cymru: 3
Green: 3
Reform: 6
DUP: 5
Sinn Féin: 8
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 3
UUP: 1
Speaker: 1
Belfast East
UP
Bristol Central:Green
Dorking and Horley: Liberal Democrats
Dover and Deal: Reform
Glasgow East: Labour
Montgomeryshire and Glywndir: Plaid Cymru
North East Derbyshire:Labour
Nuneaton: Labour
Rochdale:Labour
Stevenage: Labour
Wimbledon: Liberal Democrats
Ynys Mon:Plaid Cymru
Labour: 472
SNP: 15
Lib Dem: 72
Plaid Cymru: 3
Green: 3
Reform: 6
DUP: 5
Sinn Féin: 8
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 3
UUP: 1
Speaker: 1
Belfast East
UPBristol Central:Green
Dorking and Horley: Liberal Democrats
Dover and Deal: Reform
Glasgow East: Labour
Montgomeryshire and Glywndir: Plaid Cymru
North East Derbyshire:Labour
Nuneaton: Labour
Rochdale:Labour
Stevenage: Labour
Wimbledon: Liberal Democrats
Ynys Mon:Plaid Cymru
(edited 10 months ago)
Reply 11
Original post by Adam Woodbridge
Conservative: 60
Labour: 472
SNP: 15
Lib Dem: 72
Plaid Cymru: 3
Green: 3
Reform: 6
DUP: 5
Sinn Féin: 8
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 3
UUP: 1
Speaker: 1
Belfast EastUP
Bristol Central:Green
Dorking and Horley: Liberal Democrats
Dover and Deal: Reform
Glasgow East: Labour
Montgomeryshire and Glywndir: Plaid Cymru
North East Derbyshire:Labour
Nuneaton: Labour
Rochdale:Labour
Stevenage: Labour
Wimbledon: Liberal Democrats
Ynys Mon:Plaid Cymru
Labour: 472
SNP: 15
Lib Dem: 72
Plaid Cymru: 3
Green: 3
Reform: 6
DUP: 5
Sinn Féin: 8
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 3
UUP: 1
Speaker: 1
Belfast East
UPBristol Central:Green
Dorking and Horley: Liberal Democrats
Dover and Deal: Reform
Glasgow East: Labour
Montgomeryshire and Glywndir: Plaid Cymru
North East Derbyshire:Labour
Nuneaton: Labour
Rochdale:Labour
Stevenage: Labour
Wimbledon: Liberal Democrats
Ynys Mon:Plaid Cymru
My D has turned into 🤢.
Quick Reply
Related discussions
- Biochemistry supercurriculars?
- TSR Quiz of the Year 2024: news in emojis round!
- Introduction to Grow Your Grades - 2024/25 Edition!!! 💻💻💻
- An academic has correctly called 9 out of the last 10 US Presidential elections
- General Election 2024 Caption Competition
- Are you voting in your first general election this year?
- Golden Threads WINNER Announcement!!! 🏆🏆🏆
- Vote for your September GYG winner!
- TSR News Quiz of the Week #151 (15 June 2024) *Manifesto week special*
- UK politics opinion poll discussion thread
- Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office - Economics Essay Competition.
- Introduction to Grow Your Grades - 2024/25 Edition!!! 💻💻💻
- In year 12 and interested in studying medicine?
- 2024 general election: Liberal Democrat campaign
- Reform UK favourites to win next election?
- TSR Quiz of The Week #177 (7th December 2024)
- Uni of Aberdeen
- Grow Your Grades 2024-2025 September Nominations Now Open!!!!!!
- [Golden Thread] - Which celebrity would you choose to become Prime Minister?
- Predict the 2024 Edexcel Maths grade boundaries correctly and win an Amazon voucher!
Latest
Trending
Last reply 1 hour ago
Labour in Power: “Things Can Only Get Better.†“Definitely Maybe†– or Maybe Not?Last reply 1 week ago
Skceptical about the advance tech, AI & phishing websites.Last reply 2 weeks ago
Was the chainsaw approach the right approach for Argentina?Last reply 1 month ago
shouldn't we teach all school girls more effective self defence now because
