The Student Room Group

General election 2024 predictions competition – win a prize!

It's the 2024 general election predictions competition!

I'm going to roughly follow what we did in 2019, and run the competition in two parts. One involves predicting the seat totals for each party, and the other involves predicting the winner in 12 selected constituencies.

We'll organise a rep prize for each half of the competition, and potentially a slightly more material prize for the overall winner.

For the first half, you say how many seats (of a total of 650, and not including any other parties/independents not listed) you think each party will win. I've listed the parties that won seats at the last election. Your score is the total error (the difference between the total you predict and the actual total for each party).

Conservative:
Labour:
SNP:
Lib Dem:
Plaid Cymru:
Green:
DUP:
Sinn Féin:
SDLP:
Alliance:

For the second half, there's a list of 12 constituencies that I think will tell us something about what has happened at the election. I've given an explanation below as to why I've chosen them. You just say which party is going to win. I've hyperlinked the Wikipedia pages to give a bit more info. The winner will be the person who predicts the most constituencies correctly.

Belfast East:
Bristol Central:
Dorking and Horley:
Dover and Deal:
Glasgow East:
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr:
North East Derbyshire:
Nuneaton:
Rochdale:
Stevenage:
Wimbledon:
Ynys Môn:

We'll select an overall winner by adding together your score in the first part and awarding you 15 point for every constituency you guess correctly in the second part.

You can edit your entry if things change during the campaign, but I'll take your final answer at 00:00 on 4th July, the night before polling day!

Happy guessing!

Reasons for choosing each constituency

Conservative: 70
Labour: 435
SNP: 30
Lib Dem: 70
Plaid Cymru: 4
Green: 2
DUP: 7
Sinn Féin: 7
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 2

Reform: 1

Adding one seat for rerform
(edited 5 days ago)
Will add and count later and might edit throughout
Conservative: 105
Labour: 436
SNP: 16
Lib Dem: 60
Reform: 4
Plaid Cymru: 4
Green: 2
DUP: 6
Sinn Féin: 7
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 1
Original post by Saracen's Fez
It's the 2024 general election predictions competition!

I'm going to roughly follow what we did in 2019, and run the competition in two parts. One involves predicting the seat totals for each party, and the other involves predicting the winner in 12 selected constituencies.

We'll organise a rep prize for each half of the competition, and potentially a slightly more material prize for the overall winner.

For the first half, you say how many seats (of a total of 650, and not including any other parties/independents not listed) you think each party will win. I've listed the parties that won seats at the last election. Your score is the total error (the difference between the total you predict and the actual total for each party).

Conservative:
Labour:
SNP:
Lib Dem:
Plaid Cymru:
Green:
DUP:
Sinn Féin:
SDLP:
Alliance:

For the second half, there's a list of 12 constituencies that I think will tell us something about what has happened at the election. I've given an explanation below as to why I've chosen them. You just say which party is going to win. I've hyperlinked the Wikipedia pages to give a bit more info. The winner will be the person who predicts the most constituencies correctly.

Belfast East:
Bristol Central:
Dorking and Horley:
Dover and Deal:
Glasgow East:
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr:
North East Derbyshire:
Nuneaton:
Rochdale:
Stevenage:
Wimbledon:
Ynys Môn:

We'll select an overall winner by adding together your score in the first part and awarding you 15 point for every constituency you guess correctly in the second part.

You can edit your entry if things change during the campaign, but I'll take your final answer at 00:00 on 4th July, the night before polling day!

Happy guessing!

Reasons for choosing each constituency



Technically Luton already shows that they can win in the South :tongue:.

Luton is Labour I think.
Original post by Talkative Toad
Technically Luton already shows that they can win in the South :tongue:.

Luton is Labour I think.

Yes, but the Luton seats are safe seats basically one of the Labour cities like Oxford, Cambridge, Exeter rather than the commuter town marginals.

Btw if there is not really any interest in this then I'm minded to close this thread.
Original post by Saracen's Fez
Yes, but the Luton seats are safe seats basically one of the Labour cities like Oxford, Cambridge, Exeter rather than the commuter town marginals.

Btw if there is not really any interest in this then I'm minded to close this thread.

That makes sense

I’m interested but I’m still trying to estimate.

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