The Student Room Group

2024 general election: Reform UK campaign


Welcome to the 2024 UK General Election on TSR taking place on 4th July


This is a thread for the campaign for Reform UK. They stood as the Brexit Party at the last election but failed to win any seats.

See the Reform UK manifesto HERE (to be added on release)

The big news in the Reform space is that Nigel Farage will be standing in Clacton (the only constituency UKIP ever won at a general election) and becoming party leader. A lot will be written about what that means for the Conservatives' standing, and to some extent Labour's.

Campaign threads:
Conservative
Labour
Lib Dem
Reform UK
Green
SNP
(edited 11 months ago)

Scroll to see replies

Reply 1

Interesting to see Farage going with "Make Britain Great Again" when he was one of the chief cheerleaders of Brexit that has done so much harm to Britain.

Reply 2

REFORM UK is our only chance to once and for all see real change in the utterly broken UK political system.

Much will be said in threads about Conservatives and Labour but deep down we all know that they are essentially the same party, both working for the elites, both puppet political parties. How long can we keep deceiving ourselves and playing the ludicrous game of trying to stop Conservatives or Labour getting into No10, flipping back and forth between the two???

It's a nonsense, a complete pantomime and we all know it.

Voting for either is complete suicide and will see the utter ruin of this country and the continuation of all the wicked agendas which are seeking to bring the Chinese Communist Social control system here in the UK.

REFORM UK are the only party that will effect the changes we all need to restore democracy and the country.

Here are some of the vitally important things REFORM pledge to do in the first 100 days after the election:

Regarding BrExit

Legislate to Scrap EU Regulations with Immediate Effect. British Laws on State Aid, Competition, Employment and the environment are still based on EU regulations. Nor have we reversed EU Net Zero laws which are sabotaging our economy.

Leave the European Convention on Human Rights. British laws and judges must never be overruled by a foreign court. We must be free to deport those we consider a threat to our country. UK courts must be able to protect British citizens from EU arrest warrants.

Abandon the Windsor Framework. This is worse than the original Northern Ireland Protocol. The UK has been partitioned down the Irish Sea. Northern Ireland is still in the EU’s single market for goods. British citizens in Northern Ireland are being ruled by EU laws. Now the Tories have agreed to align new UK laws with EU laws.

Independence for Britain’s Armed Forces. The government has signed up to the EU Horizon programme. That means we send money to the European Defence Fund and part of the EU’s military mobility project. David Cameron met his EU counterparts to discuss EU defence policy. Our Armed Forces are at risk of being sucked into an EU Command and Control Force.

Prepare for renegotiations on the EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement.
A so-called EU ‘level playing field’ is holding us back


Regarding Energy & Environment

Scrap Net Zero and Related Subsidies. The UK cost of Net Zero has been estimated by the National Grid and others at some £2 trillion or more. It is so big that no one really knows. The public sector is spending billions each year with no accountability or transparency. Ditching Net Zero would save the public sector some £20 billion per year for the next 25 years, possibly more.

Scrap Annual £10 Billion of Renewable Energy Subsidies. Achieve this through equivalent taxes on them. Renewables are not cheaper. Our bills have increased dramatically in line with the huge increase in renewables capacity over the last 15 years.

Cheap, Secure Energy. We must use the energy treasure under our feet. Start fast-track licences of North Sea gas and oil. Grant shale gas licences on test sites for 2 years. Then enable major production when safety is proven, with local compensation schemes. The value of shale gas is potentially hundreds of billions over 30 years to the taxpayer. This could transform our nations fortunes and ensure prosperity for generations to come.

Cleaner Energy from New Technology. Fast-track clean nuclear energy with new small modular reactors, built in Britain. Increase and incentivise UK lithium mining for electric batteries, Combined Cycle gas turbines, clean synthetic fuel and clean coal mining.

Regarding Immigration

Freeze Non-Essential Immigration. Smart immigration can target the essential skills our economy needs such as doctors, nurses and successful business people, earning above the average salary.

Stop the Boats with our 6 Point Plan. Recognise a national Security Threat. Leave the European Convention on Human Rights: Zero Illegal Immigrants to be Resettled in the UK; Offshore Processing for Illegal Arrivals; New Department of Immigration; Pick up Migrants out of Boats and Take Back to France. (We are legally allowed to do this under international treaties).

Secure Detention for all Asylum Seekers. Asylum claims that arrive though safe countries will be processed rapidly offshore in British Overseas Territories. This will stop the scandal of undocumented asylum seekers absconding to work illegally or commit crime.

Immediate Deportation for Foreign Criminals. Deport foreign nationals immediately after their prison sentence ends. Withdraw citizenship from immigrants who commit significant crime.

Restrict Student Dependents. Introduce new visa rules for international students and their dependents. Only international students with essential skills can remain in the UK when their study ends. Close down fake courses and abusive immigration schemes.

Stop the Illegal Working Scandal. Local wages have been slashed because of cheap, undocumented, illegal labour that undermines British workers. The pro-immigration establishment has not enforced the rules. Significant penalties will be imposed on companies and directors that breach these rules.

They will also:

Affirm British Sovereignty. Reject the influence of the World Economic Forum. We will cancel our membership of the World Health Organisation unless there is fundamental reform to its structure and funding. Reform UK also opposes the Creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). We will legislate if necessary to stop Britain becoming a cashless society.

Propose a Comprehensive Free Speech Bill. Legislate to stop left-wing bias and ‘woke’ ideology. No more de-banking, cancel culture, left wing hate mobs or political bias in public institutions. Stop Sharia law being used in the UK. All public electoral activity including debates leaflets and other information must be in English.

Commence Reform of the BBC. The out-of-touch wasteful BBC is institutionally biased. The TV licence is taxation without representation. In a world of on-demand TV People should be free to choose.

Launch a Westminster Anti-Corruption Unit. The Covid PPE scandal has raised serious questions about integrity in government. The public watchdog must close the ‘revolving door’ between government and big business. Address potential conflicts of interest. Ask why UK infrastructure costs so much more than other countries. Investigate Chinese espionage and influence over politicians, academics and key decision-makers which the UK Intelligence and Security Committee says is a major threat to national security.

Ban Transgender Ideology in Primary and Secondary Schools. There are 2 sexes and 2 genders. It is a dangerous safeguarding issue to confuse children by suggesting otherwise. No gender questioning, social transitioning or pronoun swapping. Inform parents of under 16s about their children’s life decisions. Schools must have single sex facilities.

Ban Critical Race Theory in Primary and Secondary Schools. It is unacceptable to divide children on grounds of race and teach them to be ashamed of their country.

Tax relief of 20% on all Independent Education. No VAT on Fees: If parents can afford to pay a bit more, we should incentivise them to choose independent schools. This will significantly ease pressure on state schools, so improve education for all. Independent education capacity will grow rapidly, providing competition and reducing costs

Scrap Interest on Student Loans. Extend loan capital repayment periods to 45 years. Restrict undergraduate numbers well below current levels, too many courses are simply not good enough and students are being ripped off. Enforce minimum entry standards. Stop backdoor route to immigration through use of low quality degree courses.

Cut Funding to Universities that Undermine Free Speech. The government's Free Speech Act is toothless. Allowing political bias or cancel culture must face heavy financial penalties.

Permanent Exclusions for Violent and Disruptive Students. Double the number of Pupil Referral Units so schools can function safely. Disruptive children must also get support.


https://www.reformparty.uk/our-contract-contents

We stand on the precipice of losing our democracy altogether imho.

It's time to admit that the old Tory/Labour con is just a scam and to stop voting for either of them.

Young people have a real opportunity to make a difference, to rid the UK of the farcical 2 party political system once and for all. Make your voices heard, refuse to play the 2-party game, vote for change.

There is only one option for real change

REFORM UK
(edited 11 months ago)

Reply 3

Looks like Reform UK are set to be a major force in UK politics.

Recent YouGov polls put reform just 2% behind the Conservatives but actually that result is highly skewed by London and Scotland. As Farage explains in the article below:

"Nigel Farage made the sensational claim this morning that Reform UK will get more votes at the election than the Conservative Party. Mr Farage warned that the "tipping point" where Reform UK begins polling higher than the Tories is "closer than many realise". He pointed to one poll from YouGov last week, which showed Reform is now just two points behind Mr Sunak's party, polling at 17% to their 19%. However, he pointed out that digging into YouGov's numbers, Reform is already ahead of the Conservatives in swathes of England.

He explained: "If you take out London and Scotland from last week's YouGov poll, you get a very interesting picture"

"We're ahead of the Tories in North East right now; ahead in the North West right now; ahead in the Yorkshire and Humber right now; ahead in the East Midlands right now; ahead in the West Midlands right now; ahead with male voters; ahead with Brexit voters. He turned the Tory claim that voting for Reform UK risks letting in Labour on its head, warning: "In significant parts of the country we are now the challenger to Labour".

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/nigel-farage-makes-major-election-prediction-as-reform-overtakes-tories-in-swathes-of-uk/ar-BB1nXAIf
(edited 11 months ago)

Reply 4

Original post by PilgrimOfTruth
REFORM UK is our only chance to once and for all see real change in the utterly broken UK political system.
Much will be said in threads about Conservatives and Labour but deep down we all know that they are essentially the same party, both working for the elites, both puppet political parties. How long can we keep deceiving ourselves and playing the ludicrous game of trying to stop Conservatives or Labour getting into No10, flipping back and forth between the two???
It's a nonsense, a complete pantomime and we all know it.
Voting for either is complete suicide and will see the utter ruin of this country and the continuation of all the wicked agendas which are seeking to bring the Chinese Communist Social control system here in the UK.
REFORM UK are the only party that will effect the changes we all need to restore democracy and the country.
Here are some of the vitally important things REFORM pledge to do in the first 100 days after the election:
Regarding BrExit
Legislate to Scrap EU Regulations with Immediate Effect. British Laws on State Aid, Competition, Employment and the environment are still based on EU regulations. Nor have we reversed EU Net Zero laws which are sabotaging our economy.
Leave the European Convention on Human Rights. British laws and judges must never be overruled by a foreign court. We must be free to deport those we consider a threat to our country. UK courts must be able to protect British citizens from EU arrest warrants.
Abandon the Windsor Framework. This is worse than the original Northern Ireland Protocol. The UK has been partitioned down the Irish Sea. Northern Ireland is still in the EU’s single market for goods. British citizens in Northern Ireland are being ruled by EU laws. Now the Tories have agreed to align new UK laws with EU laws.
Independence for Britain’s Armed Forces. The government has signed up to the EU Horizon programme. That means we send money to the European Defence Fund and part of the EU’s military mobility project. David Cameron met his EU counterparts to discuss EU defence policy. Our Armed Forces are at risk of being sucked into an EU Command and Control Force.
Prepare for renegotiations on the EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement.
A so-called EU ‘level playing field’ is holding us back
Regarding Energy & Environment
Scrap Net Zero and Related Subsidies. The UK cost of Net Zero has been estimated by the National Grid and others at some £2 trillion or more. It is so big that no one really knows. The public sector is spending billions each year with no accountability or transparency. Ditching Net Zero would save the public sector some £20 billion per year for the next 25 years, possibly more.
Scrap Annual £10 Billion of Renewable Energy Subsidies. Achieve this through equivalent taxes on them. Renewables are not cheaper. Our bills have increased dramatically in line with the huge increase in renewables capacity over the last 15 years.
Cheap, Secure Energy. We must use the energy treasure under our feet. Start fast-track licences of North Sea gas and oil. Grant shale gas licences on test sites for 2 years. Then enable major production when safety is proven, with local compensation schemes. The value of shale gas is potentially hundreds of billions over 30 years to the taxpayer. This could transform our nations fortunes and ensure prosperity for generations to come.
Cleaner Energy from New Technology. Fast-track clean nuclear energy with new small modular reactors, built in Britain. Increase and incentivise UK lithium mining for electric batteries, Combined Cycle gas turbines, clean synthetic fuel and clean coal mining.
Regarding Immigration
Freeze Non-Essential Immigration. Smart immigration can target the essential skills our economy needs such as doctors, nurses and successful business people, earning above the average salary.
Stop the Boats with our 6 Point Plan. Recognise a national Security Threat. Leave the European Convention on Human Rights: Zero Illegal Immigrants to be Resettled in the UK; Offshore Processing for Illegal Arrivals; New Department of Immigration; Pick up Migrants out of Boats and Take Back to France. (We are legally allowed to do this under international treaties).
Secure Detention for all Asylum Seekers. Asylum claims that arrive though safe countries will be processed rapidly offshore in British Overseas Territories. This will stop the scandal of undocumented asylum seekers absconding to work illegally or commit crime.
Immediate Deportation for Foreign Criminals. Deport foreign nationals immediately after their prison sentence ends. Withdraw citizenship from immigrants who commit significant crime.
Restrict Student Dependents. Introduce new visa rules for international students and their dependents. Only international students with essential skills can remain in the UK when their study ends. Close down fake courses and abusive immigration schemes.
Stop the Illegal Working Scandal. Local wages have been slashed because of cheap, undocumented, illegal labour that undermines British workers. The pro-immigration establishment has not enforced the rules. Significant penalties will be imposed on companies and directors that breach these rules.
They will also:
Affirm British Sovereignty. Reject the influence of the World Economic Forum. We will cancel our membership of the World Health Organisation unless there is fundamental reform to its structure and funding. Reform UK also opposes the Creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). We will legislate if necessary to stop Britain becoming a cashless society.
Propose a Comprehensive Free Speech Bill. Legislate to stop left-wing bias and ‘woke’ ideology. No more de-banking, cancel culture, left wing hate mobs or political bias in public institutions. Stop Sharia law being used in the UK. All public electoral activity including debates leaflets and other information must be in English.
Commence Reform of the BBC. The out-of-touch wasteful BBC is institutionally biased. The TV licence is taxation without representation. In a world of on-demand TV People should be free to choose.
Launch a Westminster Anti-Corruption Unit. The Covid PPE scandal has raised serious questions about integrity in government. The public watchdog must close the ‘revolving door’ between government and big business. Address potential conflicts of interest. Ask why UK infrastructure costs so much more than other countries. Investigate Chinese espionage and influence over politicians, academics and key decision-makers which the UK Intelligence and Security Committee says is a major threat to national security.
Ban Transgender Ideology in Primary and Secondary Schools. There are 2 sexes and 2 genders. It is a dangerous safeguarding issue to confuse children by suggesting otherwise. No gender questioning, social transitioning or pronoun swapping. Inform parents of under 16s about their children’s life decisions. Schools must have single sex facilities.
Ban Critical Race Theory in Primary and Secondary Schools. It is unacceptable to divide children on grounds of race and teach them to be ashamed of their country.
Tax relief of 20% on all Independent Education. No VAT on Fees: If parents can afford to pay a bit more, we should incentivise them to choose independent schools. This will significantly ease pressure on state schools, so improve education for all. Independent education capacity will grow rapidly, providing competition and reducing costs
Scrap Interest on Student Loans. Extend loan capital repayment periods to 45 years. Restrict undergraduate numbers well below current levels, too many courses are simply not good enough and students are being ripped off. Enforce minimum entry standards. Stop backdoor route to immigration through use of low quality degree courses.
Cut Funding to Universities that Undermine Free Speech. The government's Free Speech Act is toothless. Allowing political bias or cancel culture must face heavy financial penalties.
Permanent Exclusions for Violent and Disruptive Students. Double the number of Pupil Referral Units so schools can function safely. Disruptive children must also get support.
https://www.reformparty.uk/our-contract-contents
We stand on the precipice of losing our democracy altogether imho.
It's time to admit that the old Tory/Labour con is just a scam and to stop voting for either of them.
Young people have a real opportunity to make a difference, to rid the UK of the farcical 2 party political system once and for all. Make your voices heard, refuse to play the 2-party game, vote for change.
There is only one option for real change
REFORM UK

You see pretty clued on on Reform.

Reform is bankrolled by members of the establishment like the multimillionaire Richard Tice, the Thai-based multimillionaire Christopher Harborne, the multimillionaire Christopher Hoskings, and the former hedge fund manager and man of loose morals Crispin Odey. These are all individuals have strong links to the Conservative Party.

I note for instance Harbone donated £1 million to Boris Johnson in 2022 and his company received and £80 million government contract.

What do you think the true agenda of the elites that back Reform are?
(edited 11 months ago)

Reply 5

The elites are sacrificing the Conservative party because it's been used up, it did what they needed it to do after Cameron's BrExit balls up, namely ensuring that a proper BrExit was never delivered and cow towing to the pandemc agenda.

Reform will become the new Conservative party, the new primary opposition to Labour.

What matters then is whether or not the Reform MPs can be bought off and controlled by the elites to fulfill roles similar to those that Johnson & Co fulfilled.

Is Farage likely to be bought off? His thorough dislike of the EU suggests not. So he will be a thorn in the side of the elite's plan to take us back into the EU. Whether he is strong enough to stand up against the next pandemic scare remains to be seen.

The elites backing Reform are possibly fearful that the populace will abandon the entire fake poltical voting/election system altogether leading to perhaps some form of revolution or civil chaos. Having Reform there as the new Conservative party tends to keep the overall system in place so perhaps that's their end game. However I feel sure that if that is the case they will "deal" with Farage in some way.
(edited 11 months ago)

Reply 6

Original post by PilgrimOfTruth
The elites are sacrificing the Conservative party because it's been used up, it did what they needed it to do after Cameron's BrExit balls up, namely ensuring that a proper BrExit was never delivered and cow towing to the pandemc agenda.
Reform will become the new Conservative party, the new primary opposition to Labour.
What matters then is whether or not the Reform MPs can be bought off and controlled by the elites to fulfill roles similar to those that Johnson & Co fulfilled.
Is Farage likely to be bought off? His thorough dislike of the EU suggests not. So he will be a thorn in the side of the elite's plan to take us back into the EU. Whether he is strong enough to stand up against the next pandemic scare remains to be seen.
The elites backing Reform are possibly fearful that the populace will abandon the entire fake poltical voting/election system altogether leading to perhaps some form of revolution or civil chaos. Having Reform there as the new Conservative party tends to keep the overall system in place so perhaps that's their end game. However I feel sure that if that is the case they will "deal" with Farage in some way.

So, like the Conservatives, a party controlled by the elite but with different branding?

It really didn’t take much for you to walk back your initial assertion that Reform were challenging the elite.

Reply 7

Original post by PilgrimOfTruth
Looks like Reform UK are set to be a major force in UK politics.
Recent YouGov polls put reform just 2% behind the Conservatives but actually that result is highly skewed by London and Scotland. As Farage explains in the article below:
"Nigel Farage made the sensational claim this morning that Reform UK will get more votes at the election than the Conservative Party. Mr Farage warned that the "tipping point" where Reform UK begins polling higher than the Tories is "closer than many realise". He pointed to one poll from YouGov last week, which showed Reform is now just two points behind Mr Sunak's party, polling at 17% to their 19%. However, he pointed out that digging into YouGov's numbers, Reform is already ahead of the Conservatives in swathes of England.
He explained: "If you take out London and Scotland from last week's YouGov poll, you get a very interesting picture"
"We're ahead of the Tories in North East right now; ahead in the North West right now; ahead in the Yorkshire and Humber right now; ahead in the East Midlands right now; ahead in the West Midlands right now; ahead with male voters; ahead with Brexit voters. He turned the Tory claim that voting for Reform UK risks letting in Labour on its head, warning: "In significant parts of the country we are now the challenger to Labour".
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/nigel-farage-makes-major-election-prediction-as-reform-overtakes-tories-in-swathes-of-uk/ar-BB1nXAIf
PRSOM.

But it is likely that the majority of these votes will be from very angry protest voters.
Furious members of the Conservative Party, former members who left over Boris's brexit deal or lockdown restrictions, professionals & students who would never consider voting Labour and maybe a few of the more libertarian leaning Lib Dems who miss the Clegg leadership era.

Reply 8

So let's be real. UK Politics is owned by foreign powers and the various elites who are working together all over the globe. The Davos Group, Bilderbergers, WEF and so on, all working in "lockstep" to seemingly destroy Britain and all it stands for and to usher in Authoritarian rule with us assimilated into the EU.

These agendas are meted out by the various PMs we've had over the decades. The EU debarcle (treason?) started wth Ted Heath but every PM, whether Tory or Labour since him, has simply furthered that EU agenda and taken the country deeper and deeper into EU integration/assimilation.

So it hasn't mattered much over the years whether we voted for Tories or Labour. It mght affect some low level peripheral stuff but it never changes the big agendas.

Cameron's rash and arrogant decision to hold the BrExt referendum was a collossal mistake for them which he is unlikely to ever live down. What this exposed to the UK public was how utterly corrupt Westminster is and how deeply in the elites pockets most of the MPs are.

Farage is a different kettle of fish. This is the man that actually stood up in the EU parliament and told all the corrupt billionaires how it was. They laughed at him. But he was proven right. The UK spat the EU out much to their annoyance and global embarrassment.

The elites likely will not be able to control Farage so they either have to assassinate him or threaten him in some way to make him disappear. When he first refused to stand at the election and didn't want to lead Reform UK I assumed they had gotten to him. After all it made absolutely no sense for Farage not to lead the party. He is THE man after all.

Now things have changed and there is a real chance that Reform will get a good number of seats at the election.

The elites have Starmer in place to mete out their dystopian agendas imo. That's why they want/need a landslide victory to claim they have a mandate for just about anything. Reform stand to disrupt that plan somewhat.

I do think that Farage will be a thorn in their side when he or his oppo's get into parliament.

Can we hold back the horrfying Orwellian dystopia that's just around the corner now?

Probably not. The world population is going to have to suffer very great harm and hardship to be able to properly wake up and see what the hell has been going on for years. By then it will be too late but once it happens I imagiine we'll end up with lots of independent factions all fighting against the "system". It will be a lot of Sci-Fi scripts rolled into one. Blake's 7, Logan's Run, Hunger Games etc etc.
(edited 11 months ago)

Reply 9

Original post by PilgrimOfTruth
So let's be real. UK Politics is owned by foreign powers and the various elites who are working together all over the globe. The Davos Group, Bilderbergers, WEF and so on, all working in "lockstep" to seemingly destroy Britain and all it stands for and to usher in Authoritarian rule with us assimilated into the EU.
These agendas are meted out by the various PMs we've had over the decades. The EU debarcle (treason?) started wth Ted Heath but every PM, whether Tory or Labour since him, has simply furthered that EU agenda and taken the country deeper and deeper into EU integration/assimilation.
So it hasn't mattered much over the years whether we voted for Tories or Labour. It mght affect some low level peripheral stuff but it never changes the big agendas.
Cameron's rash and arrogant decision to hold the BrExt referendum was a collossal mistake for them which he is unlikely to ever live down. What this exposed to the UK public was how utterly corrupt Westminster is and how deeply in the elites pockets most of the MPs are.
Farage is a different kettle of fish. This is the man that actually stood up in the EU parliament and told all the corrupt billionaires how it was. They laughed at him. But he was proven right. The UK spat the EU out much to their annoyance and global embarrassment.
The elites likely will not be able to control Farage so they either have to assassinate him or threaten him in some way to make him disappear. When he first refused to stand at the election and didn't want to lead Reform UK I assumed they had gotten to him. After all it made absolutely no sense for Farage not to lead the party. He is THE man after all.
Now things have changed and there is a real chance that Reform will get a good number of seats at the election.
The elites have Starmer in place to mete out their dystopian agendas imo. That's why they want/need a landslide victory to claim they have a mandate for just about anything. Reform stand to disrupt that plan somewhat.
I do think that Farage will be a thorn in their side when he or his oppo's get into parliament.
Can we hold back the horrfying Orwellian dystopia that's just around the corner now?
Probably not. The world population is going to have to suffer very great harm and hardship to be able to properly wake up and see what the hell has been going on for years. By then it will be too late but once it happens I imagiine we'll end up with lots of independent factions all fighting against the "system". It will be a lot of Sci-Fi scripts rolled into one. Blake's 7, Logan's Run, Hunger Games etc etc.

Buried amongst your waffle is the claim that Reform will get a good number of seats.

I predict Reform will get less than the Lib Dems. They may get less than the SNP.

Reply 10

Original post by Gazpacho.
Buried amongst your waffle is the claim that Reform will get a good number of seats.
I predict Reform will get less than the Lib Dems. They may get less than the SNP.

A prediction based on . . .? Gut feel?

The latest YouGov poll data puts Reform on 18%, Tories on 19% and the poor old Lib Dems on just 11% and SNP just 2%.

I think it's safe to say that Reform WILL be getting a significant number of seats

Reply 11

Original post by PilgrimOfTruth
A prediction based on . . .? Gut feel?
The latest YouGov poll data puts Reform on 18%, Tories on 19% and the poor old Lib Dems on just 11% and SNP just 2%.
I think it's safe to say that Reform WILL be getting a significant number of seats

A prediction based on an actual understanding of how votes are distributed across UK electoral constituencies.

The most recent YouGov MRP poll, which carries more statistical power at the constituency level, predicted Reform to win zero seats. Yes, this was just before their one asset, Nigel Farage, returned to the fold and future predictions may project them to win more. They may go on to win a handful of seats.

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49606-first-yougov-mrp-of-2024-general-election-shows-labour-on-track-to-beat-1997-landslide

The SNP won 56 seats with 4.6% of the vote in the 2015 general election. UKIP secured 12.6% of the vote in the same election but won only one seat. It is no coincidence that Farage is now standing for election in the very same seat.

Reply 12

Original post by PilgrimOfTruth
A prediction based on . . .? Gut feel?
The latest YouGov poll data puts Reform on 18%, Tories on 19% and the poor old Lib Dems on just 11% and SNP just 2%.
I think it's safe to say that Reform WILL be getting a significant number of seats

They get lots of votes in polls but thankfully the Reform UK voters are fairly spread out across the country so wont win as many seats.

Reply 13

Just more proof that the system of UK politics desperately needs Reform

Reply 14

Fascinating to see Reform UK overtake the Conservatives in a national poll, albeit only by 1% point. The last time this happened was in 2019 during the chaos in parliament over Brexit, which by all accounts was a special case.

I expect they will win a handful of seats but, due to our political system, won't gain nearly as much as other parties (despite potentially coming 2nd place, if not a close 3rd). It's the only policy area where I agree with Reform: we need proportional representation.

As for the party itself, it still reeks of the same stench UKIP had in 2015. It's Farage's one man band and polling proves it. Being populists, their main drive is just about generating attention and getting people angry.

When it comes to policy they severely lacking, as was shown by Farage today when all he could talk about was immigration. You could hear and see him struggle to come up with words when other topics came up.
Perhaps the most illuminating comparison is that there were polls very close to the 2010 election that still put the Lib Dems in 2nd and Labour in 3rd on vote share: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election

Other than the weird few weeks in mid-2019 at the height of the Brexit Wars, that's the last time the incumbent government polled 3rd. Though of course the LDs went on to lose seats in the 2010 election!

Reply 16

Original post by PilgrimOfTruth
So let's be real. UK Politics is owned by foreign powers and the various elites who are working together all over the globe. The Davos Group, Bilderbergers, WEF and so on, all working in "lockstep" to seemingly destroy Britain and all it stands for and to usher in Authoritarian rule with us assimilated into the EU.
These agendas are meted out by the various PMs we've had over the decades. The EU debarcle (treason?) started wth Ted Heath but every PM, whether Tory or Labour since him, has simply furthered that EU agenda and taken the country deeper and deeper into EU integration/assimilation.
So it hasn't mattered much over the years whether we voted for Tories or Labour. It mght affect some low level peripheral stuff but it never changes the big agendas.
Cameron's rash and arrogant decision to hold the BrExt referendum was a collossal mistake for them which he is unlikely to ever live down. What this exposed to the UK public was how utterly corrupt Westminster is and how deeply in the elites pockets most of the MPs are.
Farage is a different kettle of fish. This is the man that actually stood up in the EU parliament and told all the corrupt billionaires how it was. They laughed at him. But he was proven right. The UK spat the EU out much to their annoyance and global embarrassment.
The elites likely will not be able to control Farage so they either have to assassinate him or threaten him in some way to make him disappear. When he first refused to stand at the election and didn't want to lead Reform UK I assumed they had gotten to him. After all it made absolutely no sense for Farage not to lead the party. He is THE man after all.
Now things have changed and there is a real chance that Reform will get a good number of seats at the election.
The elites have Starmer in place to mete out their dystopian agendas imo. That's why they want/need a landslide victory to claim they have a mandate for just about anything. Reform stand to disrupt that plan somewhat.
I do think that Farage will be a thorn in their side when he or his oppo's get into parliament.
Can we hold back the horrfying Orwellian dystopia that's just around the corner now?
Probably not. The world population is going to have to suffer very great harm and hardship to be able to properly wake up and see what the hell has been going on for years. By then it will be too late but once it happens I imagiine we'll end up with lots of independent factions all fighting against the "system". It will be a lot of Sci-Fi scripts rolled into one. Blake's 7, Logan's Run, Hunger Games etc etc.

I always find it funny how paranoid conspiracy nutters are about elitist boogeymen, only for them to back politicians who are as elitist as you can get. Farage is a posh, privately educated boy from the city with friends (e.g. Trump) in very high, influential places. He's a wolf in sheep's clothing, a snake oil salesman.

He only cares about himself and himself only.

Reply 17

Original post by Saracen's Fez
Perhaps the most illuminating comparison is that there were polls very close to the 2010 election that still put the Lib Dems in 2nd and Labour in 3rd on vote share: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election
Other than the weird few weeks in mid-2019 at the height of the Brexit Wars, that's the last time the incumbent government polled 3rd. Though of course the LDs went on to lose seats in the 2010 election!

If previous elections are anything to go by then Reform's vote will probably be on the tail end of national projections, which is to say lower than their highest opinion poll ratings. That said, given the mean has risen since 2015 it is likely they will get their highest share of the vote ever (if we treat UKIP and Reform as basically the same party).

When it comes to seats I think it'll be very tricky to predict exactly what will happen. My impression is that MRP projections rely on assumptions built around more traditional looking elections, where Labour and the Conservatives capture (most) of the votes. Reform have split the right-wing vote which is a completely new phenomenon in UK politics, so the dynamics around turnouts, vote shares, tactical voting, etc, will be completely thrown up into the air. We may witness a repeat of 2015 where it'll be extremely difficult to predict the outcome.

Reply 18

Original post by SHallowvale
I always find it funny how paranoid conspiracy nutters are about elitist boogeymen, only for them to back politicians who are as elitist as you can get. Farage is a posh, privately educated boy from the city with friends (e.g. Trump) in very high, influential places. He's a wolf in sheep's clothing, a snake oil salesman.
He only cares about himself and himself only.

He's a wolf with teeth who is prepared to take on the mob. The only man willing to stand up in the EU Parliament and tell them to sod off, to tell them how utterly corrupt they were and that they will never change or reform. The only man to warn them what their elitst stance would ultimately bring, which was the UK leaving the EU and the eventual break up of the EU iitself. They laughed at him. Then we had BrExit and they stopped laughing. Then the EU member states all started jostling and fightling back and now the EU is in turmoil with populist parties getting votes.

Farage s a mover and shaker and by God the UK needs it's long-standing political sham system shaking up and the crony Uniparty parliament kicked out.

He's the thorn in the side for the Establishment and it's wicked agendas to destroy this country.

Reply 19

Original post by PilgrimOfTruth
He's a wolf with teeth who is prepared to take on the mob. The only man willing to stand up in the EU Parliament and tell them to sod off, to tell them how utterly corrupt they were and that they will never change or reform. The only man to warn them what their elitst stance would ultimately bring, which was the UK leaving the EU and the eventual break up of the EU iitself. They laughed at him. Then we had BrExit and they stopped laughing. Then the EU member states all started jostling and fightling back and now the EU is in turmoil with populist parties getting votes.
Farage s a mover and shaker and by God the UK needs it's long-standing political sham system shaking up and the crony Uniparty parliament kicked out.
He's the thorn in the side for the Establishment and it's wicked agendas to destroy this country.

We had Brexit and they are still laughing. There is a reason why the National Front and Brothers of Italy have softened their stance on EU membership. They've seen the catastrophe we experienced and have enough brains to not want it themselves.

Farage is a career politician who appeals to the naive and foolish. I'll give you one thing, he's charismatic enough to trick people into thinking a posh, privately educated elitist like himself is actually a 'man of the people'.

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