The Student Room Group

Crazy predictions for grade boundaries for further maths edexcel

I've heard a lot of people saying the grade boundaries will be high 240s for A* and I can't believe that's true.

The percentage of people with A* this year will be the same as in 2019. The grade boundary for A* in 2019 was 238/300 with the stats and mech modules. However, from what I can see, there were no particularly hard questions - perhaps the stats question with e(e^x)?

This year we had paper 1 which was probably slightly easier than 2019. Paper 2 which was, in my opinion, harder generally than in 2019 - and also we had an extremely hard last question. The mech was much harder hard this year than in 2019. The stats was definitely harder this year - not even mentioning the last question which was incredibly difficult.

I understand generally students get better at the papers as time goes on, but I don't think this accounts for the increase in difficulty. I think students only compare this year to last year's papers and don't actually see that this year was hard. I expect grade boundaries to sit at 230-235 for A*.
Obviously I could be wrong - am I missing anything?

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Reply 1
Doing OCR fm here, but a similar situation. From what I think, the only non - pandemic year that had FM after the reform was 2019, and the grade boundaries were insanely high (around 230 for an A*), for what is a pretty easy exam from my experience. This year, the exams in my opinion were in no way easier than 2019 (I haven't done 2023, so can't comment on it), but in my opinion, with the exception of a paper or two during the pandemic, this year's paper was quite difficult (not in a sense that all questions were, but more that the combination of several problematic questions with short time per exam, and with the exception of FM, which wasn't too bad), but last year, the grade boundaries were around 200 marks for an A*. Now, I know they stated that the grade boundaries will increase due to no effects of the pandemic, but they were not present last year either, and yet the grade boundaries were low. Now, what my opinion is, is that (Depends on the modules taken and the exam board), I don't think that the A* grade boundaries will increase much higher than at most, around 210-ish (for both pure cores, further mech and add pure), due to both how everyone found the exam, and it would be too drastic of an increase in comparison to last year. Now, I am in no way proficient with estimating grade boundaries, but in my opinion, they shouldn't change much from last year.
Reply 2
Original post by ninja3429
I've heard a lot of people saying the grade boundaries will be high 240s for A* and I can't believe that's true.
The percentage of people with A* this year will be the same as in 2019. The grade boundary for A* in 2019 was 238/300 with the stats and mech modules. However, from what I can see, there were no particularly hard questions - perhaps the stats question with e(e^x)?
This year we had paper 1 which was probably slightly easier than 2019. Paper 2 which was, in my opinion, harder generally than in 2019 - and also we had an extremely hard last question. The mech was much harder hard this year than in 2019. The stats was definitely harder this year - not even mentioning the last question which was incredibly difficult.
I understand generally students get better at the papers as time goes on, but I don't think this accounts for the increase in difficulty. I think students only compare this year to last year's papers and don't actually see that this year was hard. I expect grade boundaries to sit at 230-235 for A*.
Obviously I could be wrong - am I missing anything?

I hope you’re right brother, I’m stressing so bad because I believe I got around 195 and wonder whether that will be enough for an A. Edexcel did us dirty with that FS1 paper. I have no idea what to do if I miss my offer, these next two months will be a living hell for me.. To top that off I’ve seen people talking about 250s for an A* which is absolute madness and I’ve also seen no one who’s in the same boat as me until now. Let’s pray we get the grades for our offers 🙏
Reply 3
To be fair, I think that some people are overblowing the situation with the grade boundaries, as while they may increase somewhat, I highly doubt that they will be ridiculously high. Considering that, at least in my school, teachers didn't think that the grade boundaries will increase too significantly from last year, I think that, while they might somewhat increase, it wouldn't be too bad (or I am coping for the maths exams since I need A*A* in both Maths and FM for UCL)
Reply 4
Original post by deniz07
I hope you’re right brother, I’m stressing so bad because I believe I got around 195 and wonder whether that will be enough for an A. Edexcel did us dirty with that FS1 paper. I have no idea what to do if I miss my offer, these next two months will be a living hell for me.. To top that off I’ve seen people talking about 250s for an A* which is absolute madness and I’ve also seen no one who’s in the same boat as me until now. Let’s pray we get the grades for our offers 🙏

About half of my set up until that FS1 paper were saying 260 for an A*. Now after FS1, they're saying 250 for an A*.
Reply 5
Original post by ninja3429
I've heard a lot of people saying the grade boundaries will be high 240s for A* and I can't believe that's true.
The percentage of people with A* this year will be the same as in 2019. The grade boundary for A* in 2019 was 238/300 with the stats and mech modules. However, from what I can see, there were no particularly hard questions - perhaps the stats question with e(e^x)?
This year we had paper 1 which was probably slightly easier than 2019. Paper 2 which was, in my opinion, harder generally than in 2019 - and also we had an extremely hard last question. The mech was much harder hard this year than in 2019. The stats was definitely harder this year - not even mentioning the last question which was incredibly difficult.
I understand generally students get better at the papers as time goes on, but I don't think this accounts for the increase in difficulty. I think students only compare this year to last year's papers and don't actually see that this year was hard. I expect grade boundaries to sit at 230-235 for A*.
Obviously I could be wrong - am I missing anything?

243 for an A* in 2022....that's what's making me worried.

As for you saying that the grade boundaries going back to 2019, it's not the grade boundaries going back to 2019, but it's the proportion of people getting an A* and the other grades.

The grade boundaries will be dependent on how people actually perform but what's changing is what the exam board is calling the {insert desired grade} cut off based on the cumulative distribution of all of the results.
Reply 6
Original post by vnayak
About half of my set up until that FS1 paper were saying 260 for an A*. Now after FS1, they're saying 250 for an A*.

In what world would the grade boundaries increase 7% from 2019 or 6% in 2022, that would be ridiculous. Why is everyone so convinced they’re going to shoot up, I must be missing something but it is not as if the papers were incredibly easy this year. Yes I will admit that our core pure 1 paper was easier than 2022 and 2019 alike, but I would go on to say that our CP2 paper was actually more difficult, in regard to the pressure on time, than the aforementioned years, with the fm paper being on par in my opinion. Then you have the FS1 paper which was typical until the last question, where I should add that nearly the entirety of my cohort were not able to answer, so with all of that being said, you think boundaries would jump 20 marks? That’s silly in my opinion. I understand people are getting better at the format of the papers but are you all really saying that you dropped <10 marks on each paper and that what you’re reading on TSR is reflective of every students in the UK’s thoughts on the papers?? This is just getting silly, thinking realistically I would expect a small increase to account for the return of A* percentages to pre-covid but at a max of ~245 +- a couple.
Reply 7
Original post by sssdssss
In what world would the grade boundaries increase 7% from 2019 or 6% in 2022, that would be ridiculous. Why is everyone so convinced they’re going to shoot up, I must be missing something but it is not as if the papers were incredibly easy this year. Yes I will admit that our core pure 1 paper was easier than 2022 and 2019 alike, but I would go on to say that our CP2 paper was actually more difficult, in regard to the pressure on time, than the aforementioned years, with the fm paper being on par in my opinion. Then you have the FS1 paper which was typical until the last question, where I should add that nearly the entirety of my cohort were not able to answer, so with all of that being said, you think boundaries would jump 20 marks? That’s silly in my opinion. I understand people are getting better at the format of the papers but are you all really saying that you dropped <10 marks on each paper and that what you’re reading on TSR is reflective of every students in the UK’s thoughts on the papers?? This is just getting silly, thinking realistically I would expect a small increase to account for the return of A* percentages to pre-covid but at a max of ~245 +- a couple.

Ok, I may be missing something, but wasn't the whole system revised in 2019? Hence, 2019 would most likely have higher grade boundaries than they should be, due to not having anything to reference. Additionally, I wouldn't say the Pure cores were easier than 2019 ( i will say pure core 2 was easier this year than 2022), but I think that the grade boundaries won't be much higher than in 2023. Too many people are complaining about doing the exam badly, so I highly doubt it will even surpass 220 marks for an A*, as it never happened before.
Edit: I just realised, you guys are talking about Edexcel. Myb, I was talking about OCR, sorry for any confusion.
(edited 1 month ago)
Reply 8
Original post by sssdssss
In what world would the grade boundaries increase 7% from 2019 or 6% in 2022, that would be ridiculous. Why is everyone so convinced they’re going to shoot up, I must be missing something but it is not as if the papers were incredibly easy this year. Yes I will admit that our core pure 1 paper was easier than 2022 and 2019 alike, but I would go on to say that our CP2 paper was actually more difficult, in regard to the pressure on time, than the aforementioned years, with the fm paper being on par in my opinion. Then you have the FS1 paper which was typical until the last question, where I should add that nearly the entirety of my cohort were not able to answer, so with all of that being said, you think boundaries would jump 20 marks? That’s silly in my opinion. I understand people are getting better at the format of the papers but are you all really saying that you dropped <10 marks on each paper and that what you’re reading on TSR is reflective of every students in the UK’s thoughts on the papers?? This is just getting silly, thinking realistically I would expect a small increase to account for the return of A* percentages to pre-covid but at a max of ~245 +- a couple.

Oh no, I don't think that it went that well for me either...but this is just general consensus in my year group. I'm hoping for about 230-240 for an A*, but based off how everyone found it, I can't imagine that it would be. I've seen so many people on reddit talking about how easy it was and everyone in school as well so this has distorted my impression of GBs being low to the point where I'm not sure whether an A* is possible or not.

As for dropping < 10 marks, that sounds about right with the people in my year. People have been looking at the unofficial mark schemes and I can say for certain that one person has got 74, 72, 70 and I'm waiting to check on FS1 to see what they got. There's a few people who have dropped < 10 marks on every paper we've done in my year so I don't think that it helps the picture for me.

Additionally, if you want more reflective data, just go to Bicen Maths on Youtube and check the community poll he's run for every module that's been tested so far. It follows somewhat of a normal distribution and everyone in the comments is talking about how easy the exams have been.

Additionally, while you might be thinking about potential outliers scores bringing the boundary down, this effect will be more or less cancelled out by the top performers scoring near full marks, if not full marks.
Reply 9
Original post by vnayak
Oh no, I don't think that it went that well for me either...but this is just general consensus in my year group. I'm hoping for about 230-240 for an A*, but based off how everyone found it, I can't imagine that it would be. I've seen so many people on reddit talking about how easy it was and everyone in school as well so this has distorted my impression of GBs being low to the point where I'm not sure whether an A* is possible or not.
As for dropping < 10 marks, that sounds about right with the people in my year. People have been looking at the unofficial mark schemes and I can say for certain that one person has got 74, 72, 70 and I'm waiting to check on FS1 to see what they got. There's a few people who have dropped < 10 marks on every paper we've done in my year so I don't think that it helps the picture for me.
Additionally, if you want more reflective data, just go to Bicen Maths on Youtube and check the community poll he's run for every module that's been tested so far. It follows somewhat of a normal distribution and everyone in the comments is talking about how easy the exams have been.
Additionally, while you might be thinking about potential outliers scores bringing the boundary down, this effect will be more or less cancelled out by the top performers scoring near full marks, if not full marks.

To be honest, we're all speculating and it's just a waiting game from now on. With the UOMS and what I can remember my answers being, my notional scores should be 69, 70, 65, 55 respectively but this is reflective off of my understanding of how the marking in FM papers works, which of course could be completely askew. For example I docked myself 5 marks in CP1 because I used the wrong value of a(3.5) in the polar coordinates, meaning 0/2 in part a but I allowed 3/6 in part b as I had the right method, there is a worst case in which I got 0/8 but I'm pretty certain that's not how it works. Same goes for the other papers, correct me if i'm wrong but I am under the impression I can still get 2/3 /5 on a question with a correct initial method but wrong final answer. My fear is, this only sums to 259 and if boundaries do soar up I just won't make the cut for the A* which my firm offer hinges on. TLDR - fingers crossed for the next ~2 months.
Reply 10
Original post by sssdssss
To be honest, we're all speculating and it's just a waiting game from now on. With the UOMS and what I can remember my answers being, my notional scores should be 69, 70, 65, 55 respectively but this is reflective off of my understanding of how the marking in FM papers works, which of course could be completely askew. For example I docked myself 5 marks in CP1 because I used the wrong value of a(3.5) in the polar coordinates, meaning 0/2 in part a but I allowed 3/6 in part b as I had the right method, there is a worst case in which I got 0/8 but I'm pretty certain that's not how it works. Same goes for the other papers, correct me if i'm wrong but I am under the impression I can still get 2/3 /5 on a question with a correct initial method but wrong final answer. My fear is, this only sums to 259 and if boundaries do soar up I just won't make the cut for the A* which my firm offer hinges on. TLDR - fingers crossed for the next ~2 months.

If you don't get A* with 259, I'll be shocked honestly.
Original post by vnayak
If you don't get A* with 259, I'll be shocked honestly.

Hahaha that makes the two of us, considering I wouldn’t get into uni the pressure is on.
Reply 12
Original post by sssdssss
Hahaha that makes the two of us, considering I wouldn’t get into uni the pressure is on.

You will...I'm 99% sure A* is in the bag for you.
Reply 13
Original post by vnayak
243 for an A* in 2022....that's what's making me worried.
As for you saying that the grade boundaries going back to 2019, it's not the grade boundaries going back to 2019, but it's the proportion of people getting an A* and the other grades.
The grade boundaries will be dependent on how people actually perform but what's changing is what the exam board is calling the {insert desired grade} cut off based on the cumulative distribution of all of the results.
Yes this is what I meant originally. Personally, I thought 2022 was incredibly easy with no difficult questions. No year has had 2 very hard questions like this year. Surely it should be lowered from 243 to 235.
Reply 14
Original post by vnayak
About half of my set up until that FS1 paper were saying 260 for an A*. Now after FS1, they're saying 250 for an A*.

260 is insane. Do they really think this year's are by far the easiest ever
Reply 15
Original post by Ouegh
To be fair, I think that some people are overblowing the situation with the grade boundaries, as while they may increase somewhat, I highly doubt that they will be ridiculously high. Considering that, at least in my school, teachers didn't think that the grade boundaries will increase too significantly from last year, I think that, while they might somewhat increase, it wouldn't be too bad (or I am coping for the maths exams since I need A*A* in both Maths and FM for UCL)

I average around 90% in pure maths and this year I think I got at best low 80s. I really don't think this year was easy. I honestly thought aside from the last question fs1 was easier than mechanics.
Reply 16
Original post by ninja3429
260 is insane. Do they really think this year's are by far the easiest ever

Yes, they genuinely do. Barring FS1 being the hardest Stats paper we've ever done, they felt all of the other papers were super easy, which is why they initially thought 260, but have since been thinking 250 after that FS1 paper.
Reply 17
Original post by vnayak
Yes, they genuinely do. Barring FS1 being the hardest Stats paper we've ever done, they felt all of the other papers were super easy, which is why they initially thought 260, but have since been thinking 250 after that FS1 paper.
Stop fear mongering, FM boundaries have never been and will never be 250. That’s insane
Reply 18
Original post by deniz07
Stop fear mongering, FM boundaries have never been and will never be 250. That’s insane
On god 🙏 found it so easy I think the grade boundaries might just go to 280.
Reply 19
Original post by ninja3429
On god 🙏 found it so easy I think the grade boundaries might just go to 280.
I think it’s 298 A* and maybe 295 for a U

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