How safe do I need to be with uni choices?

Be careful about choosing all mega-competitive Unis like Oxbridge, Imperial, KCL, UCL, Warwick etc - even if you exceed the minimum entry requirements you are not guaranteed an offer, and this year there have been far too many A* people picking all top choices and getting no offers at all.
Pick two out of the A* choices, one at AAA, and make the others both AAB.
That means you will actually have some offers,

Hi everyone,
I'm in year 12, hoping to study physics at uni. I haven't received my official predicted grades yet but I'm expecting something between A*A*AA-A*A*A*A*. (I might drop a subject so this could potentially go down to just 3 grades). I haven't got a definitive list of 5 unis yet but some of the ones I'm looking at are Oxbridge, UCL, Warwick, KCL Soton, Exeter and Loughborough. Out of these, the highest grade requirements are A*A*A at Imperial and Cam and the lowest would be KCL and Loughborough at AAB (soton says AAA-AAB and exeter says AAA-ABB). As these are all pretty competitive unis, I was wondering whether I needed to look at an even safer option, maybe a BBB option? Also, of the lower grade options I currently have (those asking for AAA or below), should I include 2 of those in my 5 or will 1 be enough? Thanks!

You will certainly want at least one, maybe two "safer" choices. These don't necessarily need to be "non-competitive" unis/courses, just ones that you are reasonably assured of meeting the requirements for and likely to get an offer for.
I think one or two out of Southampton/Loughborough/Exeter would be suitable. You have a (very) good chance of getting an offer from those I would expect with your profile, and they're in grade ranges such that even with a couple dropped grades you'd still meet that offer as an insurance choice. You don't really need more than 2 at most in my opinion provided those 2 are in fact reasonable choices with good chance of an offer that you are likely to meet the requirements for.
Honestly I don't think it's unreasonable to just have one such uni, since I think it would be very unlikely you would not get an offer. Particularly if you attend an interview/offer holder day (I know at least historically Southampton and Exeter ran interview/offer holder days for physics that more or less were guaranteed offer schemes if you participated and were not actively abusive or something...).
That said for physics I think Edinburgh and Imperial would be much stronger departments than UCL or Warwick. Even Southampton may realistically be stronger than those two for that subject area. Unless you specifically want to go into investment banking afterwards...

if I were applying to do physics I would probably apply to Manchester, imperial, Cambridge (nat sci)(If you just want to study physics and not some of the other sciences in yr1 & 2 pick oxford as their physics course is VERY good), Southampton and Durham (Edinburgh and UCL are also decent options).
Don't worry about applying to AAB or below unis as they are often in clearing (even bath I believe usually goes into clearing for physics but correct me if I'm wrong). Also, if you get rejected from all you can do ucas extra. But I would recommend one safety (in this case probably Southampton if you have stellar grades and a good personal statement).

Consider applying to Oxbridge and 1-2 others (perhaps 1 high, 1 low) initially then add your remaining choices before the January equal consideration deadline. That way you will likely know more about where you stand and what type your remaining choices need to be.

Thanks for the suggestion. I didn't actually know that you could do this, I thought you needed to apply to all choices at the same time. Many thanks!

Thanks for the reply! Yeah I don't think I'll apply to more than 2 'safer' choices, hopefully I'll get offers from those and maybe at least one higher one. I wouldn't apply to Edinburgh I don't think, I'm from SE England and don't want to go that far! Regarding the others, I'm struggling to narrow down to just three of Oxbridge, Imperial, UCL and Warwick. I understand that Imperial has a very strong department but part of me feels that I just want to apply to Imperial for the name, rather than the university itself and student life/experience. I'll definitely have to think more about this. Also, it isn't definite, I'm not sure what I want to do afterwards but IB is defo up there haha.

Thanks for replying. I probably am leaning towards Oxford, purely because, like you said, I don't want to do the other sciences in Y1&2. I looked at Durham, not really Manchester but I think they're too far for my liking. Also, thanks for mentioning clearing and extra, I had honestly forgotten about these. I'll try and research what courses/unis often come up in clearing, I know each year will be different but hopefully it should give me some idea.

Hi everyone,
I'm in year 12, hoping to study physics at uni. I haven't received my official predicted grades yet but I'm expecting something between A*A*AA-A*A*A*A*. (I might drop a subject so this could potentially go down to just 3 grades). I haven't got a definitive list of 5 unis yet but some of the ones I'm looking at are Oxbridge, UCL, Warwick, KCL Soton, Exeter and Loughborough. Out of these, the highest grade requirements are A*A*A at Imperial and Cam and the lowest would be KCL and Loughborough at AAB (soton says AAA-AAB and exeter says AAA-ABB). As these are all pretty competitive unis, I was wondering whether I needed to look at an even safer option, maybe a BBB option? Also, of the lower grade options I currently have (those asking for AAA or below), should I include 2 of those in my 5 or will 1 be enough? Thanks!

Well if you do want to go into IB then Warwick or UCL are reasonable options for that purpose, although I'm not sure I think their physics courses are that strong by themselves (unless you're really into planetary science which UCL seems to have strengths in specifically) - not bad by any stretch but I don't think are comparable to e.g. Imperial, Oxbridge and potentially even some like Southampton maybe...?
I think if you're just picking one of the two for IB access then I'd go for Warwick simply as it's much cheaper than London and the recruiters go to you Particularly if you aren't that enthused by Imperial otherwise, that might suggest you're not as interested in living in London perhaps.
@Sinnoh might be able to offer some insight into physics at Imperial and the student life/university experience/facilities?

durham is very good for physics though 😝 (its worth the distance imo). Yeah, that's fair.

Hi Mathsgirl888,
It’s great that you have strong predicted grades and a clear focus on studying physics at university. It is also great to hear that you are considering Exeter! It is definitely wise to have a balanced list of universities to apply to. It is wonderful that you have aspirational choices where the entry requirements are at the upper end of your predicted grades or even slightly higher, for you this could be Oxbridge or Imperial. However, of course you need some options with slightly lower entrance requirements. Therefore, including at least one uni with lower grade requirements (e.g., BBB) can provide an extra layer of security. It's always good to have a fallback plan, so consider having at least one such option. You might not need to go as low as BBB if you're comfortable with the AAA-AAB range, but having a variety like AAA, AAB, and ABB can cover you well.
Although, I must suggest that when making your decision you must consider other factors outside the entrance requirements. Such as the optional modules that different uni’s may offer, location, campus facilities, and overall fit for you. This holistic approach can help ensure that you’re happy with your choices regardless of where you end up.
Let me give you a little flavour of Exeter! Exeter is a campus uni which means we have anything and everything you could possibly need on campus, from a pub, coffee shops, food shops and even a doctors. Not only this but although everything you could need is on campus, our town is about a 15 minute walk away and just a train away we have the most amazing beaches which are perfect for final term and cheeky BBQs. The beach was definitely a huge selling point for me whilst I was choosing between my options! We also have a quay which is perfect all year round and about a 30 minute walk away, its a brilliant spot for walks, a quick coffee and there is a few pubs down there! I would definitely recommend a picnic on the green too overlooking the Cathedral- which hosts our magical Christmas markets!
We also have a huge range of societies you can join at Exeter, from the likes of Quidditch soc and Swift Soc, to sports and subject societies, the list is almost endless. Plus you can even make your own society if you find enough people that would want to join- how cool! Have a look a our extensive list here: https://my.exeterguild.com/
Good luck with your applications!
Best, Sophie University of Exeter Student Ambassador

Thanks for the insight! I live in London atm so I'm still in two minds about whether I want to go to a London uni. I know it's expensive to move out so I like that I have the option to stay home but I also don't know whether I'd want to live at home and commute?

Thanks for sharing so much about Exeter. It's really helpful. Quick question, not sure if you'd know the answer, but on the physics course page under entry requirements (typical offer) for A Levels it says AAA-ABB. How do they decide where in this range they make your individual offer? Because I have higher predicted grades, does that mean I'm more likely to get an AAA offer? In that case, it would make Exeter less of a safety choice for me and probably would make me less likely to apply. Thanks!

Usually for most unis the lower range of a grade range is for contextual applicants and the upper end of the range the standard offer. Although Exeter is often very "flexible" on results day and takes people with lower grades (sometimes even lower than the standard offer), although from my experience there physics is a bit more heavily subscribed so may be less flexible for a missed offer potentially.