How safe do I need to be with uni choices?

Thank you that's good to know. Exeter have another section on this page though that says contextual offers range from ABB-ABC so still not sure.

Also, I've been looking on the UCAS website, when I put A*A*A* in on the 'How do you compare?' section it says: 'The grades you entered are higher than the grades held by the students previously accepted.
You can still apply for this course, but you are not guaranteed a place.' Does this suggest that they might not make me an offer because they know there's a good chance I'll turn it down or does it simply mean that even with these grades, an offer isn't guaranteed and that rejection is still a very real possibility? If anyone knows then please share! Thanks

Exeter have on average over a 90% offer rate across all courses. Also as I noted, they are pretty well known for accepting people who miss their offers even by a fair bit. I think you have a very good chance of getting an offer from there. They have to say you are not guaranteed a place for legal reasons, because you aren't guaranteed an offer or a place, until you get an offer and achieve it

Thank you that's good to know. Exeter have another section on this page though that says contextual offers range from ABB-ABC so still not sure.

Also, I've been looking on the UCAS website, when I put A*A*A* in on the 'How do you compare?' section it says: 'The grades you entered are higher than the grades held by the students previously accepted.
You can still apply for this course, but you are not guaranteed a place.' Does this suggest that they might not make me an offer because they know there's a good chance I'll turn it down or does it simply mean that even with these grades, an offer isn't guaranteed and that rejection is still a very real possibility? If anyone knows then please share! Thanks

The idea that unis would reject a candidate because they think that the candidate is "too good" is a myth and makes no sense. They know that applicants will turn down an offer. They're counting on it, in fact. They say you're not guaranteed a place because you never are.
Physics hasn't exploded in popularity like computer science has in recent years, I think you're fine with just one or two safer choices. Oxford/Cambridge plus one of UCL or Imperial plus Warwick or something is a pretty normal combination. When I originally applied I went with Cambridge, Imperial, Birmingham, Warwick and Southampton.
Imperial's good. Tough but you're with people who genuinely care a lot about their course (but it didn't feel competitive), and student life is better than the reputation of it. Living costs will be expensive, though.

Thanks for the helpful reply! So are you at imperial currently?

I did my undergraduate there from 2019-23, I'll be back soon for PhD

Ah ok. How did you find it? What was the department like? Was there good student support services? I assume you must have liked it a little bit because otherwise you wouldn’t be going back for your phd 😂

I struggled a bit grades-wise during the coronavirus pandemic, particularly in first year, but in third and fourth years as things started to move back in-person I started doing better, enjoying the course a bit more and getting more involved with societies. The department is very big, covers a lot of different fields of physics - that's probably the main advantage there. Can't really speak for the student support because I was fortunate enough not to need those services, although I have heard complaints there about personal tutors sometimes being unsympathetic and the university's support services having long waiting lists or being difficult to get hold of. It's a bit luck-based.

Some good advice in here already.
How safe you choose to be is up to you. Might be worth playing it really safe with a mid-range offer somewhere less prestigious but more likely to give you an offer, so that you always have a backup plan while you chase the really bit Unis you want.
Whatever you do, just make sure your decision is one you are happy with, and best of luck to you 😀
(I don't miss trekking up and down the physics building stairs at Exeter, that was certainly a workout. Brilliant university and city, though I'm a bit biased as it was my first university).

Looked at places like Salford? Manchester is a pretty decent city for Student life. Not as prestigious as the mighty University of Manchester but they might have a lower ask.
Or just go full on postal and apply for the top Unis until you run out of choices. Either way, as long as you are happy with your strategy, that's all that matters 😁

Thanks for sharing so much about Exeter. It's really helpful. Quick question, not sure if you'd know the answer, but on the physics course page under entry requirements (typical offer) for A Levels it says AAA-ABB. How do they decide where in this range they make your individual offer? Because I have higher predicted grades, does that mean I'm more likely to get an AAA offer? In that case, it would make Exeter less of a safety choice for me and probably would make me less likely to apply. Thanks!

Thanks for the reply and sorry for responding so late. I'm not too keen on Manchester if I'm honest, its a bit far from where I am and I'm trying to avoid big cities like Birmingham, Manchester etc. (with the big exception of London!)
At the moment I'm just looking at having one 'safe' option (southampton) and I think I'm happy with this but every once in a while I'll panic and think about throwing Kings or Loughborough in too. Thanks for the advice!

Many students with strong predictions and a good PS get the lower end offer. I'd certainly include Exeter as it's a great uni with a beautiful campus.