# Looking for input on a probability question

Suppose there is a switch you can flip where doing so gives you a 50 percent chance of either winning 1 million Euros or lightening striking your baby dead.

Most people would not flip the switch, even if there the odds were only 1 in 10 that lightening would strike a baby.

Question: what is the absolute highest probability of lighting striking that baby you'd accept to flip that switch? Is it 1 in 100? 1 in 1000? At what point is the probably of a lightening strike so low that flipping the switch is considered safe?

Could a mathematical equation be formulated to calculate such a scenario? Does a mathematical formula for risks and safety exist?
(edited 2 weeks ago)
Original post by Vivify
Suppose there is a switch you can flip where doing so gives you a 50 percent chance of either winning 1 million Euros or lightening striking your baby dead.
Most people would not flip the switch, even if there the odds were only 1 in 10 that lightening would strike a baby.
Question: what is the absolute highest probability of lighting striking that baby you'd accept to flip that switch? Is it 1 in 100? 1 in 100? At what point is the probably of a lightening strike so low that flipping the switch is considered safe?
Could a mathematical equation be formulated to calculate such a scenario? Does a mathematical formula for risks and safety exist?

The decision to flip the switch balances the probability of winning 1 million Euros against the acceptable risk of tragic consequences.
There are mathematical risk models that evaluate likelihood, severity and costs of hazards and thus prioritise mitigation focus. These models may even assign a cost to a lost life. Risk appetite can also quantified, based on the wider context and instincts of those in charge

In the, hypothetical, situation you describe the risk is easily completely mitigated and, despite the high potential gain, I hope that many a parent would not flip the switch how ever low the probability
(edited 3 weeks ago)