Professor Carl Sagan as Cassandra: Climate Change predictions in 1985
Carl Sagan was a towering genius. He and James Burke used to make my head explode with wonder when I watched their TV shows in the 1970s and 80s. James Burke is still around, but sadly Carl Sagan died far too young. His prescience in this US Congressional hearing in 1985 is quite remarkable.
Nobody listened. OK, some listened, but Big Oil shouted louder. It was not until the last ten years or so that more than half of the voters in most developed democracies stopped thinking that AGW is a hoax, or that it is no big deal. This was probably in large measure because of Big Oil's campaign of misinformation, which makes the campaign of mega-fibs about smoking conducted by Big Tobacco from the 1950s to the 1980s pale into insignificance.
Now, many voters say "OK, OK, AGW is real, but it's too late to fix it, so we might as well party". My daughter says that it's not too late, although it will be too late if we don't stop faffing about right now. I won't be here to find out. But, Wow, we humans are a dumb bunch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wp-WiNXH6hI
Reply 1
Carl Sagan was a towering genius. He and James Burke used to make my head explode with wonder when I watched their TV shows in the 1970s and 80s. James Burke is still around, but sadly Carl Sagan died far too young. His prescience in this US Congressional hearing in 1985 is quite remarkable.
Nobody listened. OK, some listened, but Big Oil shouted louder. It was not until the last ten years or so that more than half of the voters in most developed democracies stopped thinking that AGW is a hoax, or that it is no big deal. This was probably in large measure because of Big Oil's campaign of misinformation, which makes the campaign of mega-fibs about smoking conducted by Big Tobacco from the 1950s to the 1980s pale into insignificance.
Now, many voters say "OK, OK, AGW is real, but it's too late to fix it, so we might as well party". My daughter says that it's not too late, although it will be too late if we don't stop faffing about right now. I won't be here to find out. But, Wow, we humans are a dumb bunch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wp-WiNXH6hI
Is that your daughter's YouTube video?
Reply 2
Reply 3
Ah ok.
When your daughter says that it's not too late, although it will be too late if we don't stop faffing about right now what does she mean? Not too late for what?
As far as I can tell the UK is pretty unaffected by AGW.
My galileo thermometer has shown about 10 days thesis year where 18°C has been breached in my house. Not made it to 20°C yet this year inside and I don't think it's hit 25°C outside either.
Reply 4
You're right that Britain is less affected than some other countries but unfortunately we're far from unaffected, a few starters for ten which are already happening:
•
Increased temperatures and heatwaves which our infrastructure (built in a cooler time) isn't prepared for;
•
Loss of biodiversity and all of the associated knock on effects that natural damage causes;
•
Increased flooding risk over towns and cities where the area has become/is becoming a flood plain;
•
Increased storms and weather unpredictability that damages infrastructure and restricts travel;
•
Increased food prices that UK residents pay arising from the effects of climate change on the rest of the world which restricts harvests/affects crops etc...
Reply 5
You're right that Britain is less affected than some other countries but unfortunately we're far from unaffected, a few starters for ten which are already happening:
•
Increased temperatures and heatwaves which our infrastructure (built in a cooler time) isn't prepared for;
•
Loss of biodiversity and all of the associated knock on effects that natural damage causes;
•
Increased flooding risk over towns and cities where the area has become/is becoming a flood plain;
•
Increased storms and weather unpredictability that damages infrastructure and restricts travel;
•
Increased food prices that UK residents pay arising from the effects of climate change on the rest of the world which restricts harvests/affects crops etc...
To take those points in turn:
•
As trite as it sounds, I'm still awaiting a heatwave that will make my victorian house (early 1860s) built without loft insulation warm enough to open a downstairs window. (the bathroom window was cracked open until a couple of weeks ago to improve ventilation but it's too cold now so closed again)
•
I've not noticed a lack of biodiversity. I'd quite welcome a climatic change getting rid of midges.
•
Good job the victorians built my house of a hill.
•
Similarly, thankfully I've not suffered storm damage.
•
Food prices? You realise how cheap food is these days compared to the past right? Difficult to see you one would disaggregate the effects of conflict and energy cost fluctuations, but food is distinctly cheaper now than a couple of generations ago (as is clothing but that's an aside).
Reply 6
•
As trite as it sounds, I'm still awaiting a heatwave that will make my victorian house (early 1860s) built without loft insulation warm enough to open a downstairs window. (the bathroom window was cracked open until a couple of weeks ago to improve ventilation but it's too cold now so closed again)
•
I've not noticed a lack of biodiversity. I'd quite welcome a climatic change getting rid of midges.
•
Good job the victorians built my house of a hill.
•
Similarly, thankfully I've not suffered storm damage.
•
Food prices? You realise how cheap food is these days compared to the past right? Difficult to see you one would disaggregate the effects of conflict and energy cost fluctuations, but food is distinctly cheaper now than a couple of generations ago (as is clothing but that's an aside).
I'm not sure if "but I'm not too hot" is a reasonable response to all the evidence for global anthropogenic climate change and its consequences.
Reply 7
•
As trite as it sounds, I'm still awaiting a heatwave that will make my victorian house (early 1860s) built without loft insulation warm enough to open a downstairs window. (the bathroom window was cracked open until a couple of weeks ago to improve ventilation but it's too cold now so closed again)
•
I've not noticed a lack of biodiversity. I'd quite welcome a climatic change getting rid of midges.
•
Good job the victorians built my house of a hill.
•
Similarly, thankfully I've not suffered storm damage.
•
Food prices? You realise how cheap food is these days compared to the past right? Difficult to see you one would disaggregate the effects of conflict and energy cost fluctuations, but food is distinctly cheaper now than a couple of generations ago (as is clothing but that's an aside).
To make it personal, global warming in scotland
https://www.environment.gov.scot/our-environment/climate/changing-climate/
will make midges worse
https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/65959826
Reply 8
•
As trite as it sounds, I'm still awaiting a heatwave that will make my victorian house (early 1860s) built without loft insulation warm enough to open a downstairs window. (the bathroom window was cracked open until a couple of weeks ago to improve ventilation but it's too cold now so closed again)
•
I've not noticed a lack of biodiversity. I'd quite welcome a climatic change getting rid of midges.
•
Good job the victorians built my house of a hill.
•
Similarly, thankfully I've not suffered storm damage.
•
Food prices? You realise how cheap food is these days compared to the past right? Difficult to see you one would disaggregate the effects of conflict and energy cost fluctuations, but food is distinctly cheaper now than a couple of generations ago (as is clothing but that's an aside).
That's exactly why, like any complex topic, scientists and professionals who study climate change look at the aggregated data and study the effects at a wider geographic level. The "effect that Quady can see" is not the same as "the effect on Britain". A wealth of information on the challenges climate change will place on Britain and the world all easily googleable.
Your house may be on a hill, but many are not. Much of the land of cities and towns developed around rivers and plains where flood risks are increasing. Storms are increasing in frequency and severity - again, your house hasn't suffered ill effects because most haven't, but more storm damage and injuries are happening.
Re biodiversity - declines in species, fish stocks, coral etc... This isn't noticeable as we rush around in our day to day lives, but it's happening, and it's affects us to our detriment.
Average temperatures and summer heatwaves have been measurably confirmed as increasing, again you may be comfortable in warmer temperatures in your house, but many won't be - cities and city apartments in particular create real urban heat traps
Food is absolutely cheaper than it has been in the past, however climate change is causing it to rise. Conflicts and energy cost fluctuations can absolutely play some part too but the people that study this stuff professionally can directly observe where crop failures occur and when this is a result of storms/monsoons, soil and terrain being affected by increased warmth, biodiversity losses that hamper crop growth, and how this affects the food supply. Climate change also contributes to the energy crisis in its own way - eg: increased levels of heatwaves in Europe limit power output during various periods at a number of French nuclear plants (when the river water is too warm to use as coolant), which restricts the power that could be imported to the UK, contributed to higher UK energy prices.
A wealth of information all easily googleable that explains this in depth out there if you're interested.
Reply 9
•
As trite as it sounds, I'm still awaiting a heatwave that will make my victorian house (early 1860s) built without loft insulation warm enough to open a downstairs window. (the bathroom window was cracked open until a couple of weeks ago to improve ventilation but it's too cold now so closed again)
•
I've not noticed a lack of biodiversity. I'd quite welcome a climatic change getting rid of midges.
•
Good job the victorians built my house of a hill.
•
Similarly, thankfully I've not suffered storm damage.
•
Food prices? You realise how cheap food is these days compared to the past right? Difficult to see you one would disaggregate the effects of conflict and energy cost fluctuations, but food is distinctly cheaper now than a couple of generations ago (as is clothing but that's an aside).
You appear to confuse climate and weather. Have you read any of the IPCC reports? if not, I invite you to do so.
In any event, "I'm all right Jack" isn't a viable position.
Reply 10
You're right that Britain is less affected than some other countries but unfortunately we're far from unaffected, a few starters for ten which are already happening:
•
Increased temperatures and heatwaves which our infrastructure (built in a cooler time) isn't prepared for;
•
Loss of biodiversity and all of the associated knock on effects that natural damage causes;
•
Increased flooding risk over towns and cities where the area has become/is becoming a flood plain;
•
Increased storms and weather unpredictability that damages infrastructure and restricts travel;
•
Increased food prices that UK residents pay arising from the effects of climate change on the rest of the world which restricts harvests/affects crops etc...
Also pressure on the Global North as people in the Global South seek to escape the effects of AGW.
Reply 11
I am not sure if the poster is trolling, or remarkably ill informed, or just plain selfish, or some combination of these.
Reply 12
A generalised anxiety created about AGW as they have all been groomed throughout education to worry about it but then find they can do relatively little constructively about it? This arrogance and hypocrisy is astounding. Children are taught the dangers of climate change but then school leaders allow children to drop copious amounts of litter around the school unchecked. We want to ban oil and gas but then need petroleum products to keep us all safe.
The one key driver to all of our climate woes is population growth. No one wants to address this issue. If we didn't have such an over population against other animal species we would not be in such a mess. Yet the politicians and business leaders exploiting the finite resources on our planet don't want the population numbers to fall because they need people to make their wealth. "We won't be able to afford to finance and the economy" So which takes primacy?
Natural habitation - trees, grassland, birds, insects, worms etc all live in a balance. If our own species over populates and we do nothing, nature will see to it that the balance will be restored. Why do we as an animal species think we have so much power? The arrogance and misguidance being pedalled out at to 'condition' people's mindset is breath taking. Can we change night, or day, stop the tides or stop the sun rising?
There is a practical solution. We have to stop having children, and conserve the remaining ecosystems on land and at sea. Women should be actively encouraged not to have children, and certainly no more than two babies in a lifetime. If there are active demonstrations they should be to limit the creation of yet more children. We can't have it both ways. We have to protect areas of land from further building and look at the problems of a vastly increasing population against a limited static land mass.
All of the issues with climate change are amplified and exaggerated by excess population growth. It is unlikely we can create change to modify the world climate. We have damaged the earth and placed space junk amongst the planets. Everywhere we go we destroy and degrade the environment we live in and pour effluent into the rivers. Population density rapidly increases in city areas - building new houses and building over green land - concreting and covering up grassed areas increases flood risks. Building on flood plains exposes new housing to flood risk. We divert water supplies from mountainous areas to enable our population to drink and damage the environment in that process.
Our existence marginalises wildlife, and diminishes species into extinction. We cannot live without worms and soil. If we kill off insects and many other connected species we will crash the balance of the food chains, and ultimately limit the food sources for the human race. That is nature in its awesome powerful state. We never will, nor have been in control of world climate. That is like the weather presenter claiming they can stop the rain.
Reply 13
But Malthus was wrong, and he is still wrong.
The late, great Hans Rosling explained why -
https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_global_population_growth_box_by_box?subtitle=en&geo=fr
Population decline is already an issue in some countries.
Young people have not been "groomed" about AGW. Young people accept the clear evidence that AGW is real. Young people are justifiably concerned because previous generations ignored clear warnings and allowed a big problem to get bigger. Young people will have to fix the problem, if they can, by which time my lot will all be dead.
Why should anyone care what happens after they are dead? This has always been a problem. Most humans think of their present or future children and present or future grandchildren, but don't really care beyond that. We can wonder what life may be like in 2074 (when I shall be dead and my daughter will hopefully be seventy), but it's hard to conceptualise life in 2174, if the planet is still habitable by that date.
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