If you used Clearing in 2024, how did you find it?

Labour in Power: “Things Can Only Get Better.” “Definitely Maybe” – or Maybe Not?

Apologies to D:Ream and Oasis fans!

During the election campaign I submitted several posts warning that the advent of a Labour Government would not herald better times.

This was in no way an exhortation not to vote Labour, but merely a forewarning that life under a Labour Government led by Sir Keir Starmer might not feel that much better than it did under the previous Conservative administration.

Sir Keir himself has now told us that things will get worse before they get better. Pity he didn’t say that during the campaign; he could have taken credit for his honesty, a rare commodity among politicians these days.

Of course, much blame can be attached to the 14 years of Conservative rule, especially the Johnson and Truss administrations when we witnessed greed, lies and incompetence on an unprecedented scale. But that is only a small part of the story.

For the last 45 years or so – including the Blair era – the UK has been in relative decline. Both Labour and Conservative governments have pursued policies that have, quite intentionally, massively increased disparities in income and wealth. The interests of “working people” have been largely ignored.

There is nothing to suggest that things are going to change. There may be some tinkering at the margins, but the UK’s problems run so deep that only a dramatic change of course will have any real impact. There is little or no prospect of economic growth on a scale that would do more than scratch the surface. Forget the £22 billion “black hole” (a good portion of which is down to entirely justifiable increases in public sector pay, authorised by this Labour Government). What is needed if there is to be a serious attempt to “level up” is something akin to the £1,700 billion spent over three decades on absorbing the former DDR into a united Germany. Where is that to come from in a near stagnant economy with endemic levels of low productivity?

Sure, Labour has to start somewhere. That somewhere is going to be defined principally by the forthcoming Budget on October 30th.

That’s where the rather uninspiring honeymoon ends.

And for students? Tuition fees are long overdue for an increase and the threshold for repayment of Plan 5 student loans is frozen at £25,000 until at least 2027.

So “Things Can Only Get Better” rings a little hollow. Even “Definitely Maybe” is a bit optimistic.

Reply 1

hotpud

I think you need to qualify what "better" means. It is a term thrown around left right and centre without ever being defined. Labour have already made things better. They are now a government serving the public and running the services. This is in stark contrast to the Tories who served the rich and wealthy whilst playing lip service to running the services that everyone else depends on.

Their ministers have opened dialogue with those in the departments they manage and in short, are taking running the country seriously.

Sure, we are not going to all get richer over night, but that was never on the cards. If we are to compare today with 97, Tony Blair inherited an economy that was 5 or 6 years into recovery after the crashes of the early 90s. By contrast, an in fighting Tory party and frequent PM changes has caused havoc and uncertainty in our economy. Sunak only just managed to calm things down again and now we have yet another change into Labour. The road to "better" is probably 5+ years away.

What I can be pretty certain of is that had the Tories remained in power, continual infighting and a lack of party discipline would have severely limited any PMs ability to lead and implement policy. As we see the start of the Tory leadership election I note that they seem to be digging into appealing to an ever dwindling minority of right-wing support rather than attempting to appeal to a wider audience. I can't see the Tories coming back any time soon.

Reply 2

Supermature

Original post by hotpud

I think you need to qualify what "better" means. It is a term thrown around left right and centre without ever being defined. Labour have already made things better. They are now a government serving the public and running the services. This is in stark contrast to the Tories who served the rich and wealthy whilst playing lip service to running the services that everyone else depends on.
Their ministers have opened dialogue with those in the departments they manage and in short, are taking running the country seriously.
Sure, we are not going to all get richer over night, but that was never on the cards. If we are to compare today with 97, Tony Blair inherited an economy that was 5 or 6 years into recovery after the crashes of the early 90s. By contrast, an in fighting Tory party and frequent PM changes has caused havoc and uncertainty in our economy. Sunak only just managed to calm things down again and now we have yet another change into Labour. The road to "better" is probably 5+ years away.
What I can be pretty certain of is that had the Tories remained in power, continual infighting and a lack of party discipline would have severely limited any PMs ability to lead and implement policy. As we see the start of the Tory leadership election I note that they seem to be digging into appealing to an ever dwindling minority of right-wing support rather than attempting to appeal to a wider audience. I can't see the Tories coming back any time soon.

For the majority of those who voted Labour at the last election, "better" means discernible improvements in public services and the cost of living. They are likely to be very disappointed.

Rob Powell, Political Correspondent for Sky News, put it very neatly when he commented:

"The story of the Starmer Government will be shaped by the tension between the change it promised in opposition and the lack of cash available to achieve it."

Sir Keir has already warned that things will get worse before they get better. In so doing, he has cast the blame entirely on the last 14 years of Conservative led government. But in truth, the Blair years also contributed to the UK's decline by perpetuating and extending marketisation into areas of public life that were previously not for sale, weakening protections against the extremities of the market, failing to invest in vital infrastructure, promoting the myth of meritocracy and doing nothing to reverse the loss of manufacturing capacity or the transfer of ownership of key assets into foreign hands.

As you say, "The road to better is probably 5+ years away". Five plus sounds very optimistic and, in any event, will leave a lot of people feeling very dissatisfied.

The political scene is far too uncertain to predict what might happen when the next election comes round. But what we see happening in Europe may provide some clues: the shrinking of the centre and the rise of both the far-right and what is sometimes described as the "conservative" left (parties that are economically radical but also nationalist and socially conservative, such as the BSW in Germany). A first-past-the-post electoral system is no guarantee against a major reset of the political landscape.

Arguments over winter fuel payments for pensioners and the two-child benefit cap have already made waves. Next up is the Budget, tackling the unsustainable growth in the welfare bill and addressing the financial viability of the universities. It won't be long before voters of all age groups across the entire socio-economic spectrum get a very sharp demonstration of what Sir Keir's warning of things getting worse before they get better actually means for them.

Reply 3

hotpud

As you say, "The road to better is probably 5+ years away". Five plus sounds very optimistic and, in any event, will leave a lot of people feeling very dissatisfied.

Maybe. Maybe not. Five years is about what it took for the Tories to really screw over things. Brexit and Covid have just finished it off. I think the thing you underestimate is morale. Last year as a teacher, morale was a rock bottom. The Tories had nothing to give and Ofsted killed a head teacher. Since Labour got in morale has gone up massively. We have been awarded our first above inflation pay rise in over 13 years and the Education Secretary, Bridget Philipson has publicly acknowledged the difficulties faced in education and (shock horror) pledged to work with the profession to put things right. This is a stark contrast to the gaslighting, profession blaming and general disregard the Tories had to the education profession. Morale is on the up and with motivated staff and strong leadership you can achieve pretty much anything.

Leadership and governance is not just about money and budgets. It is about attitude, humility, empathy and appreciation, all things that are oozing left right and centre out of Labour. By contrast, the Tory attitude was "We are spending more on education than ever before (obviously - it is called inflation), so shut up, put up and get on with it! End of discussion."

Reply 4

Supermature

I rather think that the pensioners who have lost their winter fuel allowance are already feeling dissatisfied.

So too will be students when there is an inevitable rise in tuition fees while the loan repayment threshold remains frozen. (Universities need annual fees of £12,500 to break even. They're not likely to get that much - but there will have to be some increase.)

But it is the forthcoming Budget and attempts to address the unsustainable rise in the cost of welfare payments that will cause the most angst. The winter fuel cut and two-child benefit cap would only cost around £5 billion to reverse: the projected rise in welfare spending between 2022 and 2028 is in the order of £100 billion.

It is right and proper that public servants such as teachers have been awarded a reasonably generous pay rise. It is also encouraging that there are changes in the pipeline in regard to OFSTED. However, it is worth remembering that it is largely as a result of Labour's Education and Inspection Act 2006 that OFSTED became the monstrous and utterly dysfunctional self-serving bureaucracy that it is today.

Labour and its supporters will only be able to pin the blame on the Conservatives for so long. Just being 'not the Tories' and spreading a few morale boosting platitudes is no substitute for the radical changes that are needed to turn the country around.

(edited 1 month ago)

Reply 5

Supermature

"I don't think you can cut the Winter Fuel Allowance and then receive hundreds of thousands of designer goods for your wife."

‘I’m picking up bad vibes’: voters unimpressed by Labour after three months in power

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/26/im-picking-up-bad-vibes-voters-unimpressed-by-labour-after-three-months-in-power

According to one poll, Sir Keir Starmer is now less popular than Rishi Sunak or, indeed, any other recent prime minister with the exception of Liz Truss.

Not exactly a promising start.

And, as if to reinforce my opening post, there are reports that university tuition fees are to rise to £10,500, albeit that the rise will be softened by a return of maintenance grants for 'poorer' students, while a report in The Financial Times thrusts into the open the true scale of what is needed to meet the costs of renewing 'the nation's crumbling infrastructure': £1.6 trillion between now and 2040. At less than 0.01% of that figure, it rather puts the row over Winter Fuel Allowance in the shade.

As someone ruefully put it: Labour's honeymoon is beginning to look like a wet weekend in Skegness!

(edited 1 week ago)

Reply 6

hotpud

Original post by Supermature

"I don't think you can cut the Winter Fuel Allowance and then receive hundreds of thousands of designer goods for your wife."
‘I’m picking up bad vibes’: voters unimpressed by Labour after three months in power
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/26/im-picking-up-bad-vibes-voters-unimpressed-by-labour-after-three-months-in-power
According to one poll, Sir Keir Starmer is now less popular than Rishi Sunak or, indeed, any other recent prime minister with the exception of Liz Truss.
Not exactly a promising start.
And, as if to reinforce my opening post, there are reports that university tuition fees are to rise to £10,500, albeit that the rise will be softened by a return of maintenance grants for 'poorer' students, while a report in The Financial Times thrusts into the open the true scale of what is needed to meet the costs of renewing 'the nation's crumbling infrastructure': £1.6 trillion between now and 2040. At less than 0.01% of that figure, it rather puts the row over Winter Fuel Allowance in the shade.
As someone ruefully put it: Labour's honeymoon is beginning to look like a wet weekend in Skegness!

Agreed. They've screwed up. But to put things in context. They have admitted that receiving stuff for free is bad and promised not to do it again. I can't see the Tories doing this. It is the nature of how they operate.

Kier isn't off to the best start but pretty much everything is against him. The press don't like him simply because he is a Labour PM and that is peculating into a wider sense he isn't doing that well. But the fuel allowance was the right thing to do. My mum in her 5 bed house does not need £300 a year just like most wealthy pensioners. Let us not forget that pensioners have do the best out of pretty much everyone thanks to the Tories generous triple lock this last 10 years. It can't go on forever when there are so many other things pulling at the economy.